Maple Leafs roster check: What do they have? What do they need?

Among the many tasks facing new Maple Leafs general manager Brad Treliving: Assessing the roster in greater detail.

As a longtime NHL executive, Treliving obviously arrived in Toronto with some sense of what the Leafs had and didn’t have. But now that he’s had a chance to look under the hood, he’s sure to have a better understanding of what the Leafs need and don’t need this offseason.

What might he have found? Let’s pore over the depth chart for some answers.

Forwards

The biggest question of all lies in the middle of the second line: Can the Leafs find an alternative to John Tavares, someone who can push the team’s captain to a more appropriate setting on the wing? We’re keeping him in the middle for now because it’s a difficult position to fill, and the Leafs may not be able to fill it.

The free agent market is thin.

Ryan O’Reilly is probably(?) the most viable candidate, but it sure seems like a reunion with the Leafs is unlikely. I’m not sure I’d like to bet on a slow-moving 32-year-old either. Among the other notable centres available: Jordan Staal, J.T. Compher, and if you consider him a centre, Max Domi.

So no great answers there.

Which, for Treliving, means scouring the trade market. Who might fit that bill? Who might be available?

Treliving’s first call might well be to his old team in Calgary.

Would his successor, Craig Conroy, have any interest in moving Elias Lindholm or Mikael Backlund, both of whom have only one year left on their contracts?

Backlund would be only a one-year stopgap, a 34-year-old defensive stopper with a cap hit of $5.35 million.

Elias Lindholm would perfectly fill the Leafs’ need at second-line centre. (Gerry Angus / USA Today)

Lindholm would be the superior option and conceivably, a long-term replacement for Tavares. He’s 28 going on 29, brings real two-way chops, and costs only $4.85 million on the cap next season. So why exactly would the Flames, still intent on contending, move him? It might be as simple as they don’t think they can sign him and want to get in front of it.

Would the Leafs be prepared to commit to Lindholm on a pricey long-term deal? Is there any way to get him via sign-and-trade without including William Nylander or Mitch Marner? If not, what other pieces are coming back?

Shooting for a meaningful upgrade at centre, such as Lindholm or someone even better, may require moving Nylander or Marner in a blockbuster trade of some kind. Related: What can the Leafs trade that’s of great value otherwise? Their first-round pick? Timothy Liljegren, maybe?

The Leafs could look to Winnipeg where Pierre-Luc Dubois, entering the last year of his contract, is available. Would trading for Dubois, due to become a UFA next summer, make any sense if he declines to sign an extension? Probably not. Montreal is known to be his preferred destination. The Athletic reported recently that Dubois would submit a list of five or six teams that he would sign an extension with. Will the Leafs be on that list? Could they convince him to stick around long-term and form an imposing 1-2 punch with Auston Matthews? A soon-to-be 25-year-old battering ram, Dubois would fill the Leafs’ needs nicely in the short and long term — if he’s willing to sign.

Is it inevitable that he comes at the cost of Nylander or Marner? Maybe not if his small pool of destinations cools trade offers. (Again: Does he even want to come to Toronto?)

Another big-swing idea: Elias Pettersson, who becomes extension-eligible on July 1. Maybe the Canucks pivot in a big way if Pettersson is reluctant to commit for the long haul a la Matthew Tkachuk once upon a time in Calgary. Would he commit to the Leafs?

Another tantalizing consideration, if equally unlikely: Sebastian Aho, the Hurricanes star who has one year left on his deal before hitting unrestricted free agency. (He signed an offer sheet with Montreal way back when.)

Mark Scheifele is also one year from UFA and apparently available in Winnipeg.

It gets dicier after that.

The Leafs could make a play for one of Philadelphia’s centres, though none of Kevin Hayes, Sean Couturier, and Scott Laughton look like good 2C options for reasons to do with price, age, ability, and fit.

You’d think Nashville would move Ryan Johansen, but he pulls down $8 million on the cap for the next two seasons and doesn’t produce nearly enough to justify it.

So what do the Leafs do if none of the above works out? They could try Nylander in the middle on a more permanent basis, though it’s something Sheldon Keefe has tried most reluctantly. I’ve jumped off this bandwagon too; Nylander’s defensive engagement just isn’t there consistently enough.

Is it worth asking Marner to prepare for the move this summer just in case? He was drafted as a centre, but hasn’t spent any time there over his seven years in the league. It would be quite the mid-career shift.

The fallback option would obviously have Tavares simply remain in the two-hole for the time being, until the Leafs could better address it. And that’s the other thing here, Treliving could leave the top six as is basically, with the exception of Michael Bunting, who was on the third line at season’s end, departing as a free agent.

Calle Järnkrok ended last season on the No. 1 line and Matthew Knies rather stunningly entrenched himself up top before he was hurt. The Leafs could plan on entering next season with both in similar roles. Knies could help fill the void left by the departing (presumably) Bunting and Järnkrok could hook back up with Matthews, where he played his best hockey in his first year with the Leafs.

That doesn’t feel quite optimal though.

For one thing, it stretches Järnkrok beyond his ideal role as a switchable middle-six forward. Yes, he fit in well with Matthews, particularly as a scorer. He also shot the lights out, scoring 16 five-on-five goals — the same number as Tavares, Jake Guentzel, Jonathan Marchessault, and Steven Stamkos — on just 85 shots.

That’s a crispy shooting percentage of almost 19 percent, a career-high.

Regression feels like a lock next season. And because he lacks any kind of zest as a playmaker, first-line duty for Järnkrok feels more like an in-case-of-emergency option than starting plan.

There’s also the matter of Knies to consider.

Is Matthew Knies ready for full-time duty in the top six next season? (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

It was shocking how comfortable he looked as a first-time NHLer in the playoffs last spring, so much so that Keefe wisely kept moving him up the lineup. Maybe he’ll just keep on rising from here. He’s played 10 NHL games though, has spent zero time in the minors, and only turns 21 in October. Maybe expecting him to play top-six minutes from day one is too big of an ask.

All of which could put the Leafs in the market for a top-six winger in free agency (or trade). That’s the likely play if they can’t land that No. 2 centre.

Treliving has another decision to make in the middle and that’s whether to bring pending UFA David Kämpf back again. Kämpf had another solid postseason playing mostly as the fourth option in the middle. The problem: Kämpf wants to be paid like the third-line pivot he was during the regular season — something approaching or even beyond $3 million annually. A $1.5 million 3C that doesn’t produce much O is one thing. A $3 million 3C that doesn’t produce much O is another.

Kämpf hit a career-high with 27 points last season.

Because there are so few centres available in free agency, it might take an overpay to upgrade the 3C position — which isn’t all that appealing.

The Leafs could aim for a familiar and (maybe) cost-efficient face like Noel Acciari. He mostly played wing with the Leafs, but can play the middle and would bring (again) the kind of physical wallop this team lacks otherwise.

Might Treliving take a flier on Sean Monahan, someone he knows well from his time in Calgary? Monahan is coming off groin surgery, so there’s that. Another flier possibility: Jonathan Toews.

The Leafs could also go the trade route for someone like Laughton, a grit-and-grime kind of type who has three years left on his contract at $3 million on the cap. (Before last season when he notched 43 points playing 18 minutes a night, Laughton topped out at 32 points. He’s been good for double-digit goals just about every year though.)

Help on the wings in the top nine will be required, what with Bunting and Alex Kerfoot both potentially on the way out as free agents. Much will depend, however, on what goes down in the top six.

I don’t hate the idea of giving Sam Lafferty a go in the three-hole at centre to start things off, with Pontus Holmberg (a pending RFA) re-emerging from the Marlies to fill the 4C gig.

The Leafs could fill out that line with other youngsters like Bobby McMann and the returning Nick Robertson.

They might also want to bring in more playoff-ready bottom-six help this summer rather than spend assets to acquire it at the trade deadline. Zach Aston-Reese is among the other pending UFAs.

Defence

Change is coming to a group that wasn’t good enough, in the end, last season.

One thing we know about Treliving: He likes big, tough dudes on the back end. Which makes it likely that if it’s not Luke Schenn returning to the Leafs, it’s some other heavy who comes in instead.

Radko Gudas, for example, is a pending UFA.

At the right price and term, bringing Schenn back makes a lot of sense. He fit almost perfectly with Morgan Rielly, particularly in the playoffs, and has clearly improved with the puck.

Justin Holl’s likely exit as a free agent would leave another hole to fill on the right side, though perhaps Liljegren simply assumes bigger minutes and responsibilities next season. Conor Timmins could then move into regular duty on the third pair.

Is there any path to Erik Gustafsson returning?

A bigger role may lie ahead for Timothy Liljegren. (Dan Hamilton / USA Today)

The bigger need — still — is finding someone to fill the hole left by Jake Muzzin. Jake McCabe proved not to be that guy. He’s probably ideally suited to third-pairing duty or secondary competition on a No. 2 pair — second and third lines, not top groups.

I circled Dmitry Orlov as the perfect replacement for Muzzin way back in November, when Muzzin was ruled out for the season. I circled him again in mid-February. He’s now set to become the top defenceman available in free agency and remains the ideal Muzzin replacement. He’s also 31 going on 32 and will cost plenty on a large-term deal. (Of note: The Leafs’ D is leaning old already.) If it’s not Orlov, who is it — and how are the Leafs getting him?

Do they have to settle for someone lesser than Orlov but better than McCabe? Does trading Nylander or Marner help them find that defenceman?

As with the top six up front, the Leafs could do nothing and return with a top four of Rielly, T.J. Brodie, McCabe, and Liljegren. That’s not a Stanley Cup-calibre defence though. And again, if you can address it now, better to do so than at the deadline.

Treliving has historically built pretty sturdy groups on the back end.

Does Mark Giordano, his former captain in Calgary, return as a 40-year-old, or retire? Almost overnight, Giordano stopped looking like an NHL player in the playoffs, not unlike how Joe Thornton and Jason Spezza turned old once upon a time for the Leafs.

The Leafs could stand to add experience in the depth department. Victor Mete, a pending RFA, is really all that’s left on that front with Jordie Benn headed for free agency along with all the others.

Goalie

Treliving does have some work to do on the goalie front, not necessarily adding at the NHL level but subtracting Matt Murray somehow.

The new Leafs GM also needs to sign Ilya Samsonov to a new contract. Samsonov is a pending RFA with arbitration rights. A one-year deal is arguably best for both parties. If, however, Treliving wants to (attempt to) secure the position well beyond next season, he could offer Samsonov a long-term contract.

For a four-year deal, Evolving-Hockey projects a cap hit of $5.17 million. That feels rich for Samsonov, who has a limited track record of NHL success and who still has yet to start more than 40 games in an NHL season.

His backup, Joseph Woll, has started a total of 13 NHL games.

Adding a new No. 3 goaltender with NHL experience makes a lot of sense. Erik Källgren is a pending UFA. (Michael Hutchinson is available 😀.)

Stats and research courtesy of Cap Friendly, Evolving-Hockey, Hockey Reference, hockeyDB, and Natural Stat Trick

(Top photo: Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images)