It’s never dull in Toronto. And that will stay true this summer, with big decisions ahead for Brad Treliving in his first offseason as Maple Leafs’ general manager — including how to move forward with William Nylander.
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William Nylander and the Maple Leafs are at a crossroads: Which will happen this summer?
Why would the Maple Leafs consider trading Nylander?
No team should want to trade Nylander. He’s incredibly skilled and on a cost-effective contract. Moving him just to shake up the Leafs’ core would be a mistake, but their current contact situation could force management’s hand.
It’s not just Nylander’s contract that Toronto has to worry about, but Auston Matthews’ as well. Matthews is rightfully going to be the priority, and he has a ton of leverage in this situation. So if he opts to go for maximum money (which could be upwards of $15 million) with less term, which would shake up the current landscape of NHL contracts, it’ll have a ripple effect on the roster around him. Add in the fact that management has to keep some financial flexibility with Mitch Marner’s contract expiring a year later (and John Tavares’ which will open up some space), and there’s even more pressure on the Leafs’ decision-makers.
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It helps that the cap is projected to go up ahead of the 2024-25 season, but if management still can’t figure out a way to balance those extensions, they’re more than likely going to have to sacrifice some of their star power. There’s no guarantee that it’s Nylander but he is on the most team-friendly deal this next year that others around the league can try to absorb more handily than, say, Marner’s contract.
Technically, management has time to figure this out and doesn’t have to rush to a decision. But Treliving isn’t going to risk losing a player of Nylander’s caliber for nothing — he already experienced that in Calgary with Johnny Gaudreau (who, like Nylander, is represented by Lewis Gross). That means an extension or a trade has to happen by the trade deadline, which puts Nylander at a crossroads until then.
What poses a small wrinkle, and could force a decision sooner, is a modified no-trade clause that kicks in on July 1. It’s a 10-team no-trade list which isn’t a backbreaker, but it obviously limits some options. So it’s entirely possible management tries to be proactive and move him while they have the most flexibility. That would allow Treliving to actually move Nylander for something that would fit the team’s needs for the season ahead, too. The need for a second-line center so Tavares can shift to wing, and more help on the backend, seem to be priorities this summer. If not trading Nylander directly for either of those, Toronto could always push for assets that could be flipped to acquire what they actually need.
What might Nylander’s next contract cost?
A consideration in all of this, of course, has to be Nylander’s next contract. He’s going into the final year of a six-year contract that carries a $6.96 million AAV and is obviously in for a raise. His market value according to Dom Luszczyszyn’s model over the next eight years is about $9 million on average (and that’s true when taking out his 2023-24 season, which he’s under contract for, and averaging the seven years to follow as well).
Evolving-Hockey’s model has Nylander even higher. If he were to be a free agent this summer, their model would project an eight-year extension worth $9.63 million on average. If Nylander were to sign outside of Toronto, that projection would change to a seven-year deal with the same cap hit.
Making that fit is the challenge ahead for the Maple Leafs, or maybe his next team.
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Who should be interested in Nylander?
Let’s get this one out of the way early — yes, Detroit should be interested here too. When you have as many assets as the Red Wings, between picks, prospects, and cap space, pursuing high-end talent like Nylander is an absolute must. While supporting talent has to be added, it wouldn’t hurt to add more star power.
Obviously, Nylander would be a fit on a team like the Red Wings that needs more offense. He’s a dual threat who can boost Detroit’s shot and scoring chance generation, along with his playmaking. But, as The Athletic’s Max Bultman pointed out, a return from Detroit likely would be composed of future assets. Maybe the Maple Leafs take that, since they’re lacking in that department, and use it to deal with other teams for help down the middle. It’s possible, though, Toronto doesn’t want to make a trade in-division without a return that brings actual high-end players.
The Blues were a team suggested by The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel last week, and considering what appears to be an effort from management for a quick turnaround, this could be a fit.
The problem for St. Louis would be managing his next cap hit, since they probably wouldn’t want him for just the upcoming season. Even with a few contracts expiring, like Kasperi Kapanen, Jakub Vrana, and Marcus Scandella next summer, the Blues probably need to move out at least one more big contract to manage Nylander’s next deal and address the rest of the roster. Maybe that’s in the return, with someone like Pavel Buchnevich (plus) as Siegel suggested. Or, the Blues can use some of the draft assets they accumulated this past spring (including two firsts, an extra second next year, and four thirds over the next two years) to make a deal click.
The Rangers have had to add at the deadline the last two years to bolster their right-wing depth. Maybe the answer is finding a more long-term option, instead of moving picks out each spring. As much as management may want to rely on their ‘kids’ to take on that role, there’s only one actual right winger to count on in Kaapo Kakko — unless the new-look coaching staff actually trusts Alexis Lafrenière to shift to the right. If not, one RW slot in the top-six is still open if neither of this year’s deadline adds extend.
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If the Rangers want certainty for years, then Nylander seems like an ideal fit. It would be on brand for New York to dive at a big-name player, after all. The Rangers have their next three first-round picks to move and some prospects to move via trade. It’s even possible that they move players out of their NHL lineup; someone like Lafrenière could make sense as part of the return to give him a fresh start (and a cheap contract for Toronto to balance out their big-money deals). But they’d have to offload quite a bit of salary elsewhere to fit Nylander and his next contract.
It seems the Flames are bound to have a busy summer for the second straight year. New GM Craig Conroy may have to start moving out players ahead of their contracts expiring in 2024 to ensure a return on players who don’t want to stick around. That list could include Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund, Tyler Toffoli and Noah Hanifin depending on how these situations proceed. With that much roster turnover on the horizon, management obviously has to determine what the direction of the team should be from here.
If the idea is to compete, then Calgary has to swing big for high-end talent to replace whoever departs. That’s where Nylander could come in. Few teams probably have as many NHL-caliber players to send back to Toronto in exchange for the forward; one of Lindholm or Backlund to get the Leafs their 2C could make sense.
The Hurricanes can’t match the Flames in the center department, but they probably have defenders who could be of interest. Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are both up for new deals in 2024, and whoever isn’t extended this summer could be traded. Carolina could also flip someone like Martin Necas, who is coming off a breakout year. While management probably doesn’t want to move Necas, it could make sense if a player like Nylander was making his way back to the Canes. Plus, they have draft picks, including firsts and seconds in each of the next three seasons, that could become trade assets.
The one question is whether Carolina would lose too much financial flexibility since Sebastian Aho’s up for a new deal as well which may be upwards of $10 million. But if the Hurricanes stay inexpensive in goal, and don’t overspend on their blue line (which generally hasn’t been the case there), it should stay manageable.
The Kraken thrive off their depth and balanced approach, but star power would take this roster to the next level. Nylander would bring that, and Seattle could likely afford to bring him in if Toronto was willing to take a return of future assets that can be re-packaged to address areas of need.
But would Seattle want to pay up for Nylander’s next contract? That’s not even clear this summer with a player of their own in Vince Dunn. Ron Francis has never signed a player to as hefty of a deal as Nylander will command. Instead, the Kraken’s forward group is signed to a bunch of mid-range deals, and management may not want to change that too drastically.
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How about a reunion with Kyle Dubas?
Would the Leafs’ new-look management want to deal with Dubas? Maybe not, but that would be a disservice to Toronto not to listen if Pittsburgh had something to offer. In this case, it could be a defenseman or draft picks as part of the return.
If the Penguins can swing a return of the magnitude this player will call for, and that’s a big if right now, it’s something to pursue because Nylander would help the team compete now in the Sidney Crosby era and in the long run. The salary situation is something Pittsburgh should be able to handle, even with Jake Guentzel’s incoming raise at the same time. But it’ll take creative managing to tweak the roster around them to stay competitive.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, AllThreeZones, CapFriendly, and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo: Nick Turchiaro / USA Today)
