NASHVILLE – Sheldon Keefe knew then-Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas very well when he was hired as Leafs coach following a long history together in Sault Ste. Marie and with the Toronto Marlies.
Brad Treliving? Not so much.
This explains why Treliving felt it was imperative that he spend time – a lot of time – getting to know Keefe before determining that Keefe, as long suspected, will return as the Leafs coach next season. Treliving said he met with Keefe for approximately 17 hours over a period of four to five days this month. They got to know one another, discussed strategy, pored over video, and talked about the team and the players on it – the good and the bad presumably.
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“It was difficult and probably uncomfortable at times,” Treliving said Tuesday. “I think he’s got a bright mind. He’s open to change. He’s strong in his beliefs, but he also doesn’t think he’s got all the answers.”
This tracks with Keefe’s four seasons in the job where maybe his two biggest strengths were creativity and flexibility, an openness to anything and everything. That led to all kinds of regular season success for the Leafs, but only a single round won in four playoffs.
Sometimes that penchant for activity, over-activity even, hurt the Leafs in the postseason as did, more surprisingly given the talent and regular season success, the team’s offensive play.
And interestingly enough, Treliving said, “There might be a little change in how we play.”
In bringing Keefe back for a fifth season, Treliving is betting that Keefe can continue to grow and adapt in the postseason above all and pull even more, much more, out of his top players when it really matters. Keefe has already shown his teams can slay in the regular season. It’s the playoffs where again and again his teams have fallen short.
Treliving mentioned what you might call his second job theory in relation to Keefe – that a person might find more success in their job the second time around. A benefit of experience. Yes, this is still Keefe’s first NHL head coaching job. But Treliving will become his second GM, which means a different voice and perspective from up top.
“Sometimes a little bit of new, a little bit of fresh can help,” Treliving said. “A little bit of change.”
One consideration that Treliving had to have had in determining Keefe’s future is to figure out who exactly the Leafs would have gotten to replace him. In short, who was out there that could do a better job than Keefe, who’s won over 60 percent of his regular-season games behind the Leafs bench and did guide them to the second round for the first time since 2004. (Not much progress obviously, but some.) The Leafs would need to have come up with a ready-made upgrade.
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The most obvious candidate would have been Joel Quenneville, a three-time Stanley Cup winner in Chicago who also has all kinds of baggage at the moment and an uncertain path back to the NHL.
Treliving said the Leafs would figure out an extension for Keefe (or not?) at a later date. Will an extension do anything to bolster Keefe’s job security? Hard to see how. If the Leafs, say, failed to go beyond the second round yet again next spring, Keefe probably isn’t sticking around – extension or not.
Treliving reiterated that the Leafs would like to extend Auston Matthews as soon as they possibly can, aka on July 1. He also expressed a desire to secure William Nylander’s long-term future with the team, clearing up any doubt about the Leafs’ willingness to remain in the Nylander business now that he was in charge.
The timeline, of course, makes things interesting.
A 10-team no-trade clause will kick into Nylander’s current contract, which has one year left, on that same July day that he can sign the extension. Which makes it at least possible that if Treliving doesn’t believe he can find common ground with Nylander by then or soon after, the Leafs might have to explore a trade (or let Nylander play out his current contract). What do the Leafs do, for example, if Nylander’s agent Lewis Gross insists on a contract with a cap hit at or above $10 million annually?
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While noting that the Leafs weren’t inclined to make a trade just to make a trade, Treliving didn’t deny the possibility outright.
“Our focus is strictly to get him signed,” Treliving said of Nylander. “(But) you’re always talking (to other teams). That’s the job. The job of the manager is to make sure a) you know what’s going on in the league and b) (are) there avenues to make your team better — regardless of who it is.”
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In other words, Treliving isn’t ruling anything out. Publicly anyway. He also downplayed the idea that the core – namely, Matthews, Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner – had been assured of its return, an apparent guarantee of sorts made before he was hired by his boss, Brendan Shanahan.
“I don’t think there’s ever any assurances in this business,” Treliving said.
Maybe that’s simply posturing. Maybe it’s related to contract talks, in Nylander’s case specifically. Or maybe he’s not willing to box himself in on anything at this point, so early in his tenure.
And yet, Treliving’s open intent to extend Matthews and Nylander sure signals that the Leafs are inclined to roll back the same core again (with the same coach) next season. That or deal Marner, who will be eligible for an extension of his own next summer and who has a no-movement clause kicking in on July 1.
“I’m confident we’re gonna get both players signed until proven otherwise,” Treliving said of Matthews and Nylander. “And hopefully it’s (July 1). If it’s not, then we’ll keep working away at it.”
Treliving has clearly been active.
The Athletic’s Pierre Lebrun reported that the Leafs had checked in with the Sharks about Erik Karlsson and Treliving conceded to discussions with Craig Conroy, his successor in Calgary who holds a number of players (Elias Lindholm above all) who might be of interest to the Leafs.
Karlsson has four years left on his contract at a cap hit of $11.5 million. He just won his third Norris Trophy. He also turned 33 at the end of May. In short, a risky, high-upside, possibility. The Leafs would obviously have to move some things around to make a home run swing like that work, though the Sharks would surely retain serious coin in any kind of Karlsson-related transaction.
A defence that featured Karlsson on the right side of one pair and Morgan Rielly on the left side of another has obvious appeal. With Keefe’s willingness to go bold, you could even imagine the Leafs even trotting Karlsson and Rielly out there together at some points.
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The Leafs lacked much juice offensively beyond Rielly (12 points) in the playoffs.
That said, adding one more huge cap number, even one that’s reduced, on top of Matthews ($11.6 million), Tavares ($11 million), Marner ($10.9 million), Rielly ($7.5 million), and Nylander ($6.9 million) would make the Leafs even more top-heavy than they already are – assuming none of those guys are moving out in such a deal. And that’s before pricey new deals eventually kick in for Matthews, Nylander, and soon, Marner. (Tavares’ deal will come off the books after the 2024-25 season.)
Treliving figures to remain active this week in Nashville. He said the Leafs’ approach in free agency, which gets going on Saturday, would be dictated by what went down (trades?) in the coming days.
Surely among the decisions is what to do about Matt Murray, who has one year left on his contract after an injury-plagued first season with the Leafs.
Treliving said he believed the Leafs had “three good goaltenders, really good goaltenders” in Murray, Ilya Samsonov, and Joseph Woll.
Maybe most interesting was the GM’s take on Woll, who, he noted, finished the season on a relative high. “I’ve learned sometimes that those young guys, sometimes, that finish off well – (it) doesn’t necessarily mean the start’s gonna be well,” he said.
Are the Leafs, then, committed to Woll as their No. 2 heading into next season? Woll requires waivers to return to the Marlies so there’s that. Samsonov is also in need of a new deal.
Most likely, of course, is Murray going elsewhere.
“Like anything else, we’d be open to looking at different things,” Treliving said, no doubt referring to a trade involving Murray. “But if at the end of the day, we go to camp and we’ve got three good goalies, good for us is how I look at it.”
Unlikely, but possible.
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The Leafs might well tie their first-round pick to Murray in a pre-draft swap or use that pick to acquire more readymade help. “If there’s something that makes sense to move the pick we would,” he said of the 28th selection. “But at some point, you gotta put some groceries back in the cupboards.”
More prospects in the system in other words.
Treliving isn’t expected to be sitting at the Leafs table on the draft floor when the first round begins on Wednesday. He’ll have to wait until after the Flames use the 16th selection to sit with his new front office in one of the weirder quirks of a draft in recent memory – a GM not sitting with his team.
Treliving hasn’t been involved in the Leafs’ pre-draft preparations.
Which means the Leafs, oddly enough, will be taking a Dubas-centric approach at the draft — with Treliving as the GM and Keefe as the coach.
(Top photo: Andrew Francis Wallace / Toronto Star via Getty Images)
