NEW YORK — The story of the Cubs’ first half isn’t too complicated. The team has failed to come through — whether it’s on offense or on the mound — in the biggest moments. It’s led to a string of soul-crushing defeats and a record (42-47 after Sunday’s 7-4 comeback victory over the New York Yankees) that feels significantly worse than it should be.
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It’s not as if fans or the team can take much solace in the underlying metrics that suggest the team’s record should be better. What happened is real.
“It’s a production-based league,” manager David Ross said. “You gotta find a way to win. The (Miami) Marlins are the opposite. They’ve won a ton of one-run games, that’s why their record is where they’re at.”
The Marlins are 53-39 at the break. By BaseRuns they’re a 46-46 team. The same metric has the Cubs at 50-39. The Marlins are an insane 21-6 in one-run games. They’re also 7-5 in two-run games. The Cubs are 12-22 in one- and two-run games.
Many times in these instances, blame is placed on the manager. That’s not an unfair assumption. When things aren’t going right on the margins, questions have to be asked. The decisions being made in the game and the spots in which players are being placed have to be considered.
“I try to look in the mirror,” Ross said. “What can I do differently as a manager? What can we do differently as a group? Those areas — it’s come down to hitting with runners in scoring position for a lot of that. Driving guys (in) when we get on base, we’ve gotten guys on base pretty consistently. Or being able to throw up a zero after we score runs or holding it when you get a nice comeback like (Thursday). Little things that are important that aren’t going our way. Whether that’s luck — production in big moments, that matters.”
Luck feels like a tough word to use in these situations. Good teams like to create their own luck, right? But perhaps randomness is a legitimate excuse here. Consider this: In last year’s first half, the Cubs were 18-32 in one- and two-run games. In the second half, they were 24-16 in those moments. Same manager, an actually worse team on paper, particularly with the bullpen, and better results in the close matchups.
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Last winter, when asked about what the team lacked, Jed Hoyer explained the need for more thump in the lineup.
“We lack the ability to pull away in different games,” Hoyer said. “That’s something we have to get better about. We played so many close games throughout the year because we couldn’t stretch games out. That really taxes the bullpen and it leads to more randomness. The best teams in baseball blow people out. One-run games are always going to center around .500, that’s a baseball truism. One-run games are generally a 50-50 proposition, sometimes a little better if you have a great bullpen.”
It’s not as if Hoyer is making excuses for the team’s record this year. He was saying this after his team went 39-31 in the second half and won a large number of close games. He understood there’s peril in trying to win like that consistently. He went into this season understanding the flaws of this team and the inherent risk he was taking. This team was never going to outslug its opponents and needed to eke out wins. For the most part, the Cubs just haven’t done that this season.
Hoyer knows that adding power is of utmost importance. If he believes in his manager, he has to give him the tools to succeed. Relying on winning close games year over year isn’t a sound plan and he knows that. When a team is constantly playing in high-leverage situations, it forces the most important relievers to pitch more often with little margin for error. It leaves room for more to go wrong, for every mistake or bad bounce or bit of randomness to be catastrophic.
“For me, it feels like we’re really close,” Ross said. “If we’re talking numbers — we know it’s not played on paper — but analytically, they would say that’s luck. They would say that’s misfortune in certain areas. But you still gotta make it happen.”
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It can’t be ignored that this team is in a better position than last year at this time. That’s a low bar, considering the Cubs hit the break 22 games under .500 in 2022. But there aren’t as many holes on the roster and there are more pieces that are obvious long-term fits. It was in June of last year that the Cubs came to the Bronx and were swept by the Yankees in embarrassing fashion, outscored 28-5 in three games. The talent difference was obvious and glaring.
It doesn’t seem as though the gap is as wide anymore. The Cubs took two of three against the Yankees (yes, Aaron Judge is hurt, but that just shows how much of a difference that type of impact bat can make) to end the second half and looked their equal, if not better, throughout. The pieces of the puzzle are there. This isn’t a team, yet, that should be projected to win 90-plus games. But there are reasons for some optimism. Hoyer just has to continue to identify the flaws and work to cover them with the right additions.
“We’re growing,” Ross said. “We’re getting to where we want to be. Record-wise we’re not there yet. But I think a lot of the underlying things you can point to, the culture, the way we see guys show up. The work we put in to figure out some things in the bullpen, the offense scratching and clawing. Some things go our way and we pounce on it. That’s the sign of a good team, taking advantage of other teams’ mistakes.”
By the end of last season, one could point to Justin Steele, Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki as quality long-term pieces to build with. Now with his extension, they can add Ian Happ to that mix. Signing Dansby Swanson in the offseason solidifies the up-the-middle infield defense and provides a clubhouse and veteran leader to help keep the mood right even in the down moments. Christopher Morel is getting closer to being a trusted offensive piece. Miguel Amaya has that potential. There’s a high-leverage reliever in Adbert Alzolay, a young fireballer in Daniel Palencia and more pitching talent at Triple A. A strong second half from Jameson Taillon would surely help for those looking to be positive heading into 2024.
There’s more talent here than a year ago. There should be more hope too. But in the end, all that matters are the results. And for the Cubs, the good ones aren’t coming often enough. A series like this one against the Yankees shows where this could go and an easier schedule out of the break allows for some optimism for those who want to cling to it. The situation for this team isn’t as dire as some make it out to be, but they still are not a finished product either.
“Does it feel like we’re close like we have a winning team? Yes,” Ross said. “Is our record a winning record? No. That’s where the frustration comes in. Frustration with fans, with players, myself at times. We all see how close we are and how talented we are. We gotta find a way. That falls on me as much as anybody. We gotta find a way to make that better.”
(Top photo of Christopher Morel and Cody Bellinger celebrating after Sunday’s win over the Yankees: Wendell Cruz / USA Today)
