The business of summer is not yet complete for the Edmonton Oilers, but the roster seems close to set 70 days from the beginning of the 2023-24 preseason schedule.
Kailer Yamamoto and Klim Kostin are gone. Connor Brown is the big free-agent addition. The major acquisition for Edmonton took place at the trade deadline, with the arrival of impact defenceman Mattias Ekholm.
Advertisement
Do the Oilers need more of a tweak? Is there anyone who can emerge from the AHL Bakersfield Condors this fall?
Will there be one or more loud noises? An emerging talent passing an incumbent, à la Stuart Skinner grabbing the No. 1 spot in goal last year?
Here’s a position-by-position look at the mid-summer situation and a look at possible surprises (loud noises) for each position.
Goaltenders
The goaltending situation was supposed to be solved with the signing of free agent Jack Campbell last summer. It was the rookie Skinner who emerged as the starter, and his strong work earned him a nomination for the NHL’s Calder Trophy (for rookie of the year).
The depth chart reflects the new reality in Edmonton.
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
No. 1 starter, emerging talent | |
Backup unless he turns it around | |
AHL starter faces competition | |
Could be AHL No. 1 this year | |
Looking to recover from poor season |
Possible loud noises: If Campbell wins the starting job back, and starts 50 games, that will be breaking news. He is capable of posting a much stronger season than a year ago, and in truth, the Oilers would have a better chance to win the Stanley Cup with both goaltenders playing at the top of their games.
A smaller surprise would be Olivier Rodrigue passing Calvin Pickard on the AHL depth chart and emerging as the most likely recall. If that happens, chalk one up for the scouts, as the Oilers would have two homegrown goaltenders (a rare sight).
Left defence
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
No. 1 D, 23 mins a night | |
Anchors impact second pairing | |
Strong third-pairing veteran | |
Swingman, should play 15+ mins | |
AHL top pair, top recall | |
AHL puck mover | |
Top-six AHL blue | |
AHL puck mover |
Possible loud noises: Mattias Ekholm is capable of wrestling the top job on left defence away from Darnell Nurse.
During last year’s playoffs, the gap in time-on-ice between the two was razor-thin. Nurse played 23 minutes in all situations and Ekholm 22 minutes. There were five seconds of difference at even strength, the two were about even on the power play, and Nurse’s ice-time advantage overall came exclusively on the power play.
If Ekholm becomes the No. 1 defender in Edmonton this winter, it will be both huge news. The groundwork was laid after the deadline and in the postseason.
Advertisement
Right defence
The biggest change in this position took place after the trade deadline and into the playoffs. Evan Bouchard, finally allowed to wheel after the trade of Tyson Barrie, averaged 23 minutes in all-game situations during the postseason.
Only Nurse, by a single second, finished ahead of the brilliant, young puck-mover in overall minutes per game. Veteran Cody Ceci saw his playing time fall due to injury and lack of effectiveness, and now the worry is how far he will drop on the depth chart.
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
Top pairing minutes, role | |
Second or third pair | |
Third pair | |
Swingman, should play 15+ mins | |
Top-four AHL blue | |
Top-six minutes in AHL |
Possible loud noises: The big headline is ready to be written. All that needs to happen: Philip Broberg emerging as a top-four defender. He’ll have to do it on his off (right) side, but he will have one of Nurse or Ekholm to ease the way.
Broberg’s skill set (he’s a fast train, with size and legit defensive ability) need only get the reps for the young man to flourish. The Oilers train is bound for glory next spring, so it’s vital for the young player to get the playing time in a feature role.
Broberg stepping up into a feature role would be the top story in Edmonton this winter.
Centre
The Oilers have the strongest single position in the NHL, at centre ice with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Young pivot Ryan McLeod is emerging as a two-way talent and an important part of the current team and the future in Edmonton. There is a big surprise looming.
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
The best player in the NHL | |
Another 50-goal season | |
No. 3 C, increased TOI | |
No. 4 C NHL, No. 1 C AHL | |
Skill AHL C, possible NHL recall | |
Utility AHL fwd, possible recall | |
Two-way AHL C | |
Checking centre AHL | |
No. 4 C AHL |
Possible loud noises: Draisaitl has scored 51 goals per 82 games over the last five seasons. He arrived in the NHL as an elite passer, and willed himself into one of the greatest snipers in the game.
From 2018-19 through 2021-22 (four seasons), Draisaitl’s five-on-five goal share was 265-225 (54.1 percent) but in 2022-23 it fell to 74-70 (51.4 percent).
The Oilers are so close to winning Stanley, and the margins between winning and losing are so small, recovering from that dip in on-ice performance is important.
Draisaitl will make headlines if he can flourish away from McDavid at five-on-five. Here’s a look at the annual gap between Draisaitl with and without the captain over the last five seasons.
| Year | 29 w/97 | 29 w/o 97 |
|---|---|---|
2018-19 | 57-44 (56%) | 17-29 (37%) |
2019-20 | 34-35 (49%) | 35-27 (56%) |
2020-21 | 33-17 (66%) | 22-16 (58%) |
2021-22 | 17-14 (55%) | 50-43 (54%) |
2022-23 | 32-24 (57%) | 42-46 (48%) |
All numbers five-on-five
If Draisaitl and McDavid can outscore five-on-five together and apart, that gives the Oilers a stronger chance to win. Combined with the team’s improved performance from the third and fourth lines, Edmonton would truly be formidable in all areas. That would mean balance.
Left wing
There are several possible stories from Edmonton’s left-wing roster over the next several months.
One area fans will be watching closely: Regression among the veterans.
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
Rare intimidating goal scorer | |
Two-way winger on skill line | |
Third line winger with skill | |
Veteran two-way utility forward | |
Scoring winger, NHL or AHL | |
Scoring W in AHL, recall option | |
Scoring W in AHL | |
Rookie scoring W in AHL |
Possible loud noises: There are two.
Evander Kane scored 1.31 goals-60 at five-on-five last season. That’s a terrific total, especially considering his year was marred by two significant injuries. Can he repeat those numbers over an entire year? And will a return to health help improve a poor five-on-five goal share (45 percent) in 2022-23?
Advertisement
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is the other big story on left wing. He delivered over 100 points in the regular season, posted a 56 percent goal share at five-on-five (second best of his career) and over 2.00 pts-60 at five-on-five for just the second time in his career.
The breaking news will come if Nuge’s regression is severe. Edmonton is not committed to a veteran lineup for several seasons to come. If both Kane and Nugent-Hopkins struggle, it could mean a mediocre season offensively for the Oilers.
That could be the lead story this winter.
Right wing
The big story at this position is the major free-agent signing of the summer.
| Player | Projected Role |
|---|---|
No. 1 RW, quality scorer | |
Two-way W helping outscore | |
Big winger with skill on No. 3 line | |
Two-way W, PK expert | |
Scoring W in AHL | |
Top pro prospect, two-way W | |
Two-way W | |
Rookie, depth winger |
Possible loud noises: Connor Brown shooting lights out and helping the top two lines outscore at five-on-five.
Zach Hyman was money on McDavid’s line one year ago, but the acquisition of Brown may mean a line shuffle at right wing.
Brown has averaged 16-24-40 during his NHL career, but playing with McDavid tends to increase scoring.
Patrick Maroon averaged 10-18-32 per 82 games before arriving in Edmonton, then posted 26-20-46 while playing for the Oilers.
The sky’s the limit for Brown, who is playing for his next contract.
Loud noises
Many of these stories will develop during the season. Some will go sideways and will be addressed at the trade deadline. Most will have an impact on Edmonton’s journey in 2023-24, a year the organization, players and fans hope results in the first Stanley Cup parade in Edmonton in 34 years.
Here are the potential loud noises, from most to least important:
- Broberg pops and lands on the second pairing with Ekholm or Nurse.
- Draisaitl outscores opponents five-on-five without McDavid on his line.
- Brown scoring and outscoring spike on the McDavid line.
- Kane struggles after injuries.
- Nugent-Hopkins’ regression is significant.
- Ekholm emerges as the No. 1 defenceman in Edmonton.
- Campbell wrestles starting job away from Skinner.
Not all of these developments would be positive, and not all would have the same impact.
If the Brown bet, the Broberg spike and the Draisaitl outscoring without the captain develop, the Oilers will be in a good position in the spring to push through for the ultimate loud noise: A Stanley Cup victory.
(Top photo of Philip Broberg, Leon Draisaitl and Mattias Ekholm: Andy Devlin / NHLI via Getty Images)
