Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit

On draft weekend 2016, Edmonton Oilers fans were thrilled at the good fortune experienced by the organization in Buffalo, N.Y.

Using Bob McKenzie’s TSN consensus ranking, the team gathered the No. 3 player (Jesse Puljujarvi) with the No. 4 selection; the No. 39 prospect at No. 32 (Tyler Benson) and No. 38-ranked Markus Niemelainen at No. 63.

It was a quality draft haul, or so it appeared.

These years later, the player from that draft weekend who owns the most prominent role in the organization is giant defenceman Vincent Desharnais. Chosen No. 183 in the final round, Desharnais is the one who came through for the club.

Even that development is recent and anything but established.

The Oilers 2016 draft was no great success a year ago, but the bottom fell out this spring and early summer.

The unraveling began with the trade of Puljujarvi to the Carolina Hurricanes at the deadline and continued to free fall with the news on Benson.

His exit came July 10 with the signing of an AHL deal (Henderson Silver Knights, affiliate of the Vegas Golden Knights) for 2023-24.

Fans remember all the picks that fail to deliver, but the Benson selection was special. There were several impact prospects (Carter Hart, Alex Debrincat) still on the board when Edmonton cracked the mic and announced the pick.

How much talent did the team pass on that day?

Using McKenzie’s list (the first 31 names to sync with selection No. 32), and re-creating the pool of talent available before the Benson pick, we see just how severe the misstep was on that day.

Who was left on the board?

Player	Chosen	BM rank	NHL GP
Tyler Benson	32	39	38
Libor Hajek	37	26	110
Boris Katchouk	44	29	117
Kale Clague	51	30	91
Rasmus Asplund	33	31	183
Pascal Laberge	36	32	0
Alex Debrincat	39	33	450
Jordan Kyrou	35	34	252
Nathan Bastian	41	36	163
Dillon Dube	56	37	282
Markus Niemelainen	63	38	43

There are seven players McKenzie ranked ahead of Benson who have surpassed the 100-game plateau in the NHL. Hart isn’t included in the conversation because McKenzie ranked him No. 57 overall, but he was available and highly touted before draft day.

In the years that have followed, it’s fair to say Debrincat, Hart, Jordan Kyrou and Dillon Dube have contributed significantly in the NHL.

Later choices Adam Fox, Samuel Girard, Jesper Bratt, Filip Hronek and Brandon Hagel have also posted strong NHL numbers since arriving in the world’s best league.

No team is going to get every selection right, and every team has a pick like Benson that looks wayward seven years later.

Still, with the team still building the McDavid cluster, missing on the Benson pick, with so much left on the board, remains seared in the collective memory of Oilers nation.

What were the scouts thinking? What was the appeal of Benson?

What is Benson’s elite skill?

Benson’s greatest skills are his vision and elite passing ability. HockeyProspect.com described his advantage perfectly, saying “the strength of his game is his high-end accuracy on his forehand and his backhand.”

It showed up in the assists column.

In the decade between 2010 and 2020, AHL forwards who played as rookie regulars at age 20 and delivered a high degree of assists per game either went on to a solid NHL career or are establishing one now.

The exception is Benson.

Player	Year	Assists-per-Game
Ryan Strome	2013-14	0.97
Tyler Benson	2018-19	0.75
Chris Tierney	2014-15	0.72
Drake Batherson	2018-19	0.68
J.T. Miller	2013-14	0.68
Dillon Dube	2018-19	0.65
Jack Roslovic	2017-18	0.63
Dylan Strome	2017-18	0.62

Benson’s impressive assists totals lasted the length of his entry deal, then faded as the player and organization attempted to add “agitator” to his role.

The issues for Benson are reflected in the other names who delivered strong assists totals over the decade.

Most of the names play centre, and all of these players shoot the puck on the net at a higher rate as well as own far better shooting percentages.

Benson plays left wing, averages .6 shots per game and scored just once in 38 NHL shots with Edmonton. His passing game was strong in the AHL, but low shot volume derailed him.

Added to the fact he played for a team with so many elite passers (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins), who shot at a higher volume and success rate, and Benson was never a threat to land on a skill line in Edmonton.

His skills most closely resemble a playmaking centre.

Benson’s shot rate was below average and his shooting percentage was poor compared with other forwards coming through the Edmonton system during the 2010s.

Player	Shots-per-game	Shooting Pct
Jesse Puljujarvi	2.96	9.6
Dylan Holloway	2.6	12.8
Anton Slepyshev	2.54	10.7
Tyler Benson	2.2	9
Kailer Yamamoto	1.76	20.5
Ryan McLeod	1.5	14.6

His shot rate in the AHL was higher but faded in the NHL. Benson’s shooting percentage (and that of Puljujarvi) in the AHL telegraphed the road ahead once with the Oilers.

There was little growth in areas of weakness during his time with Edmonton.

Draisaitl did improve as a shooter. He arrived in pro hockey with a strong reputation as an elite passer, but there was little mention of his shot on draft day scouting reports. Draisaitl worked hard to become an elite NHL first-shot scorer. There’s a lesson there.

The Oilers’ 2016 draft

Five years after the 2016 draft, the progress made was a net negative after two strong years for Edmonton. It was accurately described this way: “The 2014 and 2015 drafts gifted Edmonton McDavid and Draisaitl. The 2016 draft failed to build on that momentum.”

Benson’s signing an AHL deal with a Pacific Division rival doesn’t raise an eyebrow, while first-round pick Puljujarvi was sent away for cap room at the 2023 deadline.

What was the problem with the 2016 draft? Injuries.

In the case of Benson, chronicling all of the physical issues is a significant process. Here are the injuries suffered before he turned pro:

• November 2014: Upper-body injury suffered at the U17 World Challenge. (Vancouver Province)
• September 2015: Surgery to repair lower-body injury. (Vancouver Giants)
• February 2016: Announcement Benson is shutting it down for the season, plus confirmation surgery in September was to remove a cyst near his tailbone. (Vancouver Metro)
• June 2016: Benson discusses groin issues during draft period (Global)
• October 2016: Benson unable to take part in training camp (Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal)
• January 2017: Undisclosed injury keeps Benson out of lineup (Vancouver Province)
• July 2017: Benson hopes April surgery puts injury woes behind him (Edmonton Sun)

He would turn pro in fall 2018, with the expressed goal of playing an entire healthy season. He delivered a strong AHL debut, the most impressive offensive display by an Oilers rookie prospect (forwards) this century.

Benson lost precious development time and it had an impact. The key to his rookie success with the Bakersfield Condors (passing, assists) came from centre Cooper Marody’s matching skills (great chemistry). Both men began to fade as prospects when Marody was injured in a spring 2019 playoff series versus the Colorado Eagles.

Coincidentally, the author of the injury to Marody was former Oilers farmhand Kale Kessy.

What’s left?

For the Oilers, the only players still signed are Desharnais (No. 6 NHL defenceman, feature player on the penalty kill) and Niemelainen (AHL top pairing defender, likely first NHL recall).

The nadir for the 2016 Oilers draft probably came at the trade deadline, when Puljujarvi was sent away for nothing but cap room and a depth prospect who would go unsigned.

Puljujarvi has been a productive NHL player (if a somewhat shy scorer) throughout his time in the NHL. His current health issues (reported first by Chris Johnston of TSN) have him without a contract and looking at a long road back to the NHL.

For Benson, a fresh start with a new NHL team would have been ideal. An AHL contract is less appealing, but it keeps him in North America and gives Benson a chance to earn another NHL contract.

One final note

Benson’s time in the Oilers organization ran five seasons. Traditionally the Oilers don’t employ prospects beyond entry deals if they haven’t established themselves as NHL players (or close). Benson’s 217 AHL games rank high on the all-time list of drafted Oilers forwards in the top minor league.

Benson is the first draft prospect forward in over a decade to reach 215-plus minor-league games with the organization before moving on. That’s a reflection of Ken Holland’s patient approach. Fans might keep that in mind as players like Raphael Lavoie reach waiver eligibility.

The relationship between the Oilers and drafted prospects appears to be extended by a year or two.

This list should offer encouragement to Benson. Shaun Van Allen and Jason Chimera enjoyed long careers after extended minor-league auditions.

Benson owns one elite skill. He needs to build around it. The time lost in his development years as a teenager meant a promising future landed shy of an NHL career.

For the team, the journey ends. For the player, this fall offers a new opportunity and a chance to write a fresh chapter.

(Photo of Tyler Benson: Matt Slocum / Associated Press)