The Padres, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote Monday, could soon dominate a seller’s market if they so choose.
All-Star left fielder Juan Soto, a year ago, fetched one of the biggest trade-deadline hauls ever. All-Star snub Blake Snell, since May 31, leads all qualifying major-league pitchers in ERA, FIP, strikeouts, strikeout rate, batting average against and wins above replacement. All-Star closer Josh Hader, since he course-corrected last September, has been as effective as ever. Even a pitcher like Seth Lugo, with his ability to start and supply high-leverage relief innings, could have broad appeal to postseason contenders.
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The Padres still view themselves among that group, but they are increasingly living in a state of ill-founded optimism, if not suspended disbelief. Last weekend’s disastrous series against the Phillies left them with a roughly one-in-four shot of qualifying for the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. To make that shot, a 44-50 team likely has to do no worse than 43-25 the rest of the way.
It can be done, given San Diego’s existing talent and the potential for reinforcements before the Aug. 1 trade deadline. But the Padres are almost out of time to prove they deserve any outside help. Over the next two weeks, they must consider what they could get if they do end up trading the likes of Snell and Hader, two proven postseason performers on expiring contracts. The market for Lugo, who is pitching well enough to decline a $7.5 million player option, has to be another consideration.
Moving any of these arms could help reinforce a flawed roster for 2024, Soto’s final season before free agency. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some notable rental returns from the past several trade deadlines.
2022: Cubs trade David Robertson to Phillies for Ben Brown
Robertson, the veteran setup man, netted Chicago a right-hander in the midst of an encouraging High-A season. A year later, Brown has emerged as the Cubs’ top pitching prospect and, by some accounts, a top-100 prospect in the entire sport. While the 6-foot-6 starter has struggled with walks since his promotion to Triple A, evaluators say the 23-year-old has big-league-ready stuff.
2022: Angels trade Noah Syndergaard to Phillies for Mickey Moniak and Jadiel Sanchez
Months after signing Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal, the Angels flipped the diminished one-time All-Star for former No. 1 overall pick Moniak and minor-league outfielder Sanchez. Moniak, an Encinitas, Calif. native, has recently found a potential long-term home up the freeway in Anaheim. The 25-year-old outfielder entered Monday hitting .326 with 10 home runs in 41 big-league games. No longer a surefire draft bust, Moniak will not be arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season.
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2021: Nationals trade Jon Lester to Cardinals for Lane Thomas
Lester made a dozen starts for the Cardinals and retired after his 38th birthday the following January. Thomas, the 26-year-old outfielder the Nationals received in return, hit seven home runs in 45 games, scuffled a bit in 2022 and has taken off as a borderline All-Star in 2023. The Nationals control his rights for two more seasons.
2021: Tigers trade Daniel Norris to Brewers for Reese Olson
This one-for-one is paying fresh dividends for the Tigers, who got five no-hit innings from Olson in his major-league debut last month (before he allowed a pair of runs in the sixth). Olson has since compiled a 3.96 ERA in nine appearances, including six starts. The right-hander might end up in the bullpen permanently, but he throws in the mid-90s with multiple above-average secondary pitches. At 23, he’s poised to supply significant value for years.
2018: Orioles trade Zack Britton to Yankees for Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and Josh Rogers
Carroll and Rogers didn’t end up doing much for the Orioles, but Tate has done more than a little. Since an uneven debut season, the former No. 4 overall pick has pitched to a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief. Tate hasn’t pitched this season because of a forearm strain. He’s making $1.5 million.
2017: Blue Jays trade Francisco Liriano to Astros for Teoscar Hernández and Nori Aoki
Hernández surfaced with the Blue Jays a month after the trade, hit eight home runs in his first 26 games and hasn’t stopped hitting home runs: In parts of eight big-league seasons, he’s hit 148, including 57 across his final two seasons in Toronto. The 30-year-old right fielder, after being traded last offseason, has spent much of 2023 as the Mariners’ cleanup hitter.
2017: Dodgers trade Oneil Cruz and Angel German to Pirates for Tony Watson
Pittsburgh focused on young upside in this exchange, getting 21-year-old right-hander German and an 18-year-old infielder. The latter has turned out to be a steal in the form of Cruz, a rookie sensation and Statcast darling in 2022. The 6-foot-7 shortstop could be nearing a return after fracturing his ankle in April.
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2016: Yankees trade Aroldis Chapman to Cubs for Gleyber Torres, Adam Warren, Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford
The Cubs ended up getting their first World Series appearance since 1945, and their first title since 1908. The Yankees got Chicago’s No. 1 prospect in Torres, who reached the big leagues less than two years later and would be an All-Star in each of his first two seasons with the Yankees. Now no longer an All-Star, he has settled in as an above-average second baseman with one more year of control. Both sides won this trade.
(Top photo of Blake Snell: Matthew Stockman / Getty Images)
