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If I told you the Brewers traded a year-plus of Josh Hader for five years of an All-Star level catcher, four years of a dominant setup reliever and a top 100 pitching prospect, you’d think, “Pretty good, right?”
Well, that is precisely the haul the Brewers landed for Hader, though it took two trades for them to get there. Yet, here’s the crazy part: The Hader deal still does not qualify as a slam-dunk success.
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Why?
Because the Brewers, who had a three-game lead in the NL Central when they sent Hader to the Padres last Aug. 1, went 29-31 the rest of the season and missed the playoffs first time since 2017.
The best way to look at the deal is that it compromised the Brewers for 2022, but ultimately made them stronger for ‘23 and beyond. Some members of last year’s team might argue the tradeoff wasn’t worth it. So might some fans. But the Brewers undoubtedly came out of the Hader trade and a subsequent three-team deal with the A’s and Braves better off long-term.
For Hader, the Brewers acquired reliever Taylor Rogers, righty Dinelson Lamet (whom they immediately designated for assignment) and two prospects, outfielder Esteury Ruiz and left-hander Robert Gasser. But that was only step one. In December, they sent Ruiz to Oakland in a deal that brought them reliever Joel Payamps from the A’s and catcher William Contreras and minor-league reliever Justin Yeager from the Braves.
Contreras, 25, is batting .274 with 10 homers and a .798 OPS while ranking among the leaders in several Statcast categories defensively. Payamps, 29, is sporting a career-best 1.79 ERA. Gasser, 24, just entered Baseball America’s list of top 100 prospects at No. 99.
Nearly one year later, the lessons of the Hader trade endure. The first, that deadline deals cannot be always judged in the moment, should be obvious. The second, that a seemingly well-conceived plan can rock a clubhouse if it involves the removal of a popular star, is influencing the Brewers’ approach as they enter this year’s deadline, once again in first place.
Right-hander Corbin Burnes is at the same service level Hader was at a year ago, with one year of club control remaining after this season. But Burnes, in an interview with MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, said he heard directly from Brewers general manager Matt Arnold that he will not be traded.
Part of the Brewers’ rationale, according to sources briefed on their thinking, is that as a starting pitcher, Burnes stands a bigger chance of making an impact in a pennant race and in the postseason. The flip side of his importance is that he could yield an even bigger return than Hader did. But after absorbing the fallout from the Hader trade, the Brewers surely do not want to go through a similar experience again.
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With Craig Counsell, the team’s highly respected manager, in the final year of his contract, the Brewers should be doing everything possible to persuade him to stay. They also should be mindful of what pitcher Eric Lauer told McCalvy last August, three weeks after the Hader trade.
“There was a shock factor to it. Everybody was taken aback by it a little bit,” Lauer said. “It didn’t send us the right message from the upstairs people trying to say, like, ‘We’re doing this and we’re trying to put you guys in the best position and we’re trying to win right now with you guys.’ It seemed more of a, ‘We’re trying to develop for the future.’”
That was part of it, yes. But Arnold, who was working under president of baseball operations David Stearns at the time of the deal, still believes a low-revenue team such as Milwaukee has no choice but to consider such moves.
With the Hader trade, the Brewers were trying to accomplish multiple things at once. Make the playoffs for a fifth straight year. Add young talent for the future. And extract value out of Hader, whom they didn’t want to bring back at a massive arbitration salary in 2023, his final season before becoming a free agent.
They nearly succeeded on all fronts, losing the third NL wild card to the eventual league champion Phillies by only one game. At 86-76, they finished with the same record as the Rays, who earned the third AL wild card.
Arnold said of the deal, “As much as that one stings — I certainly learned a lot from that trade, I think a lot of us did — in our market, if you’re able to zoom out and see the big picture, those are the type of deals we have to explore, even if they are unpopular.”
Stearns, who stepped away from his job in October but remains with the club in an advisory role, declined comment. But he addressed the Hader trade at his season-ending news conference, saying, “It had a more pronounced impact than I thought it would at the time, and the surrounding moves didn’t adequately fortify the team in Josh’s absence.”
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The Brewers, intent on making their fifth straight playoff appearance, tried to keep their bullpen formidable by acquiring Rogers in the Hader package and also adding Matt Bush from the Rangers and Trevor Rosenthal from the Giants. None of those relievers succeeded, however. Rogers and Bush produced ERAs of 5.48 and 4.30, respectively. Rosenthal never pitched for the Brewers. And the damage lingered.
As expected, Rogers left as a free agent, signing a three-year, $33 million contract with the Giants. Bush was under club control for an additional two years, but they proved all but worthless. The Brewers released him on July 3, and he has since signed a minor-league deal with the Rangers.
While some fans perceived the series of trades as cost-cutting, they actually increased the Brewers’ 2022 payroll slightly, and Stearns said the number would have gone even higher if he had not struck out on landing a hitter. The departure of Hader, though, allowed the Brewers to escape the pitcher’s last year of arbitration, which ended up costing the Padres $14.1 million, the largest salary for a reliever in the history of the process.
The natural assumption is that the Brewers would have made the postseason if they had kept Hader, but it hardly would have been a sure thing. Hader was not good for the Brewers in July, posting a 12.54 ERA. He was not good for the Padres in August, producing a 19.06 ERA. Only in September and during the postseason did he return to form.
The past cannot be unraveled. What’s done is done. But after parting with Ruiz, who leads the AL with 43 stolen bases, the Brewers were left with Contreras and Payamps, key contributors for them this season, and Gasser, who could be part of their rotation in 2024. The volatility of relievers makes Payamps a questionable asset long-term. But Contreras, in only his second full year in the majors, looks like a genuine building block.
A right-handed hitter, Contreras hits balls to the opposite field like a left-handed slugger. Defensively, Statcast ranks him tied for fourth in blocking, tied for fifth in framing and tied for sixth in throwing.
The Brewers ideally would love to acquire another player of that caliber at the deadline. Under Stearns, they generally settled for lesser pieces, guarding their top prospects and refraining from “wow” acquisitions. Mike Moustakas was solid in 2018, but Jonathan Schoop was a bust. Willy Adames was a fantastic addition in May 2021, and Eduardo Escobar also helped that season. But none of those players will be confused with say, J.D. Martinez or Juan Soto.
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The crop of available hitters this year is again thin. The Brewers’ biggest need is a first-base/DH type, but they can also add in other areas. Yes, outfielder Sal Frelick is getting hot at Triple A. But wouldn’t it be something if Arnold, in his first year as head of baseball operations, as a statement to the players the front office failed last season, pulled off some kind of deadline heist?
Sure, the price would be top prospects, but not to worry. Arnold could recoup young talent by trading Burnes in the offseason. After the Brewers returned to the playoffs.
(Top photo of Josh Hader: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
