When it comes to the Detroit Pistons, the possibilities — for another two months — are still endless. Your imagination is still at your disposal.
Detroit is still some time away from playing meaningful basketball, and barring a trade, the roster for the 2023-24 season appears to be set. There’s still time to talk yourself into the Pistons being a surprise postseason attendee. There’s still time to lower your expectations, especially if Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren’s impressive performances in Las Vegas with the U.S. team have raised your excitement level. It’s not too late to hop on the bandwagon. It’s not too late to jump off of it. This is what the offseason is for: imagination, hope and both irrational confidence and fear.
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With all of that in mind, there’s no accurately predicting at this point what Detroit and new head coach Monty Williams will do when it comes to lineups and rotations. However, we’re going to try.
In this exercise, I’m going to guesstimate what I believe the Pistons’ best lineups will be in different scenarios, which include starting, closing (both offensive-focused and defensive-focused), bench, small ball, spacing and big lineups.
Detroit is an unproven bunch, but the potential depth (assuming development breaks right in some key areas) presents some interesting lineup combinations for the upcoming season. Let’s get into it.
Starting lineup
Prediction: Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanović, Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren
Analysis: I still think this is the Pistons’ most balanced lineup to start the season. There’s been so much of an emphasis on defense and having multiple creators on the floor that this particular group is the closest thing Detroit can get to addressing both, while still having shooting upside involved.
Some of you may be in the camp of having Stewart come off the bench in favor of Ausar Thompson with Bogdanović moving to power forward. However, I just can’t see that happening. Detroit struggled to rebound last season when either Bogdanović or Saddiq Bey started at the 4, and the defense wasn’t particularly good.
Thompson, the No. 5 pick, could change that. He rebounded and defended well during summer league, but I still just have a hard time envisioning a Cunningham-Ivey-Thompson-Bogdanović-Duren lineup to start the season.
As for shooting, the predicted starting lineup has upside but that is probably the biggest concern with this group. However, if you believe in the shooting development of Cunningham, Ivey and Stewart, this group could check a lot of boxes. Cunningham has yet to shoot the 3-ball consistently well at the NBA level, but I have little doubt that’ll change. Ivey knocked down a more-than-respectable 37.5 percent of his 3s from Feb. 1 until the end of the regular season (26 games). He’ll get even easier looks playing alongside Cunningham. Stewart shot 33 percent from 3 in his first season shooting a high volume. A shoulder injury in January tanked his overall 3-point numbers from being closer to 35 percent.
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All of these guys have to prove they can be consistent shooters, but I don’t think it’s a reach to believe that this starting lineup could have four players who might knock down 35 percent of their 3s.
Closing lineup (need scoring)
Prediction: Cunningham, Ivey, Alec Burks, Bogdanović and Duren
Analysis: It’s the fourth quarter and Detroit is trailing by 10 with 6 minutes to play. To me, this is the group that has the best chance of closing that deficit in a short time.
There are four players out there who can create their shot. If Cunningham has the ball in his hands, defenses won’t be able to help off of Burks or Bogdanović on the perimeter. Helping off of Ivey might not be wise either because he can hit open 3s and quickly take advantage of the open space by either cutting or catching and taking off when the ball is swung to him.
With this group, there is reason for concern defensively and on the glass, but you can’t close the gap quickly if you can’t score. This bunch has a lot of offensive firepower, a good amount of shooting and just enough defense to make a stop or two when needed — depending on the opponent of course.
Closing lineup (need to hold lead)
Prediction: Cunningham, Monte Morris, Thompson, Stewart and Duren
Analysis: Now, it’s the fourth quarter and Detroit is leading by 10 with 6 minutes left. This is probably the best group Williams could toss out there to get the necessary stops and keep the scoreboard moving.
The goal long term is for Ivey to be out there instead of Morris, and I think it’s possible. Ivey has grown as a defender since the start of his rookie season and told The Athletic last month that the defensive end has been a big emphasis for him. But we need to see the strides consistently over a long stretch before tossing him into such a critical situation, especially when the veteran Morris, has made a good living as a stable defender and mistake-free ballhandler.
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Defensively, this is a good five. As for rebounding, a strong case could be made that Thompson, Stewart and Duren are the best frontcourt trio Detroit can have to control the glass. Rebounding in the clutch has to be an emphasis for the Pistons next season. I can think of five losses last season that Detroit should have won if it weren’t for second-chance points by opponents in the final moments.
Offensively, there’s enough here to keep the scoreboard moving. Morris doesn’t turn the ball over. Thompson is a rookie but appears very poised as a ballhandler and passer. Cunningham has struggled with turnovers in his short career, but he’s the engine that gets this thing moving. He’s not sitting.
There’s a world where I could see this lineup (swap Morris for Ivey depending on the scenarios) being Williams’ go-to closing lineup.
Small-ball lineup
Prediction: Cunningham, Thompson, Bogdanović, Isaiah Livers and Stewart
Analysis: This is considered a “small-ball” lineup because the tallest player is Stewart at 6 foot 8. However, there is good size and length across the board with this group, as Livers is the shortest at 6 foot 6 with an average wingspan.
I’d like to see a few minutes of this group at some point this season. Is it likely? I’m not sure. I like the spacing possibilities, and I’m a fan of getting Thompson significant reps as the secondary facilitator. I believe he has a lot to offer in that regard.
Defensively, this group offers a good amount of upside despite lacking true height. Both Stewart and Livers can defend in space and are good at contesting shots at the rim, even if it doesn’t lead to blocks. Thompson and Cunningham are good defenders. This group can get out and run.
A handful of minutes from this group now and then could be entertaining.
Big lineup
Prediction: Cunningham, Thompson, Livers, Marvin Bagley/James Wiseman and Duren
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Analysis: I still have a hard time seeing how Wiseman and Duren work together, but there will be several instances this season when Detroit has to match up against a pair of twin towers. I prefer the fit with Bagley and Duren more if the Pistons are going to go ultra big because Bagley just has more of a natural feel around the perimeter on offense than Wiseman right now. There needs to be some threat of spacing, but I think Stewart ends up just slotting in at power forward in any “big” lineup.
Cunningham and Thompson is a sizable backcourt with good length. Livers can play the 3 or 4 on defense, so he fits in nicely here. Sorting out the other big man spot in this situation will be the toughest challenge for Detroit.
The “We’re getting trounced and need energy to make this interesting” lineup
Prediction: Ivey, Thompson, Joe Harris, Livers and Stewart
Analysis: One of my favorite scenarios in basketball is when a coach has grown frustrated with his starting group, the bench isn’t playing super well either, the game is getting out of hand and he/she just has to piece a lineup together of cohesive energy to try and salvage something. It often looks like a hodgepodge of randomness. Last season, Hamidou Diallo was the focal point of any Pistons lineup in this scenario.
This season, I could see that responsibility being handed to Thompson. He plays hard, smart and seems like a guy who would play as intensely facing a 20-point deficit in the third quarter as he would in a tie-ball game at the end of the fourth. Ivey is another one of those guys. Same with Stewart and Livers. Harris is the one who could just get otherworldly hot from 3 and help put a dent into a beatdown.
(Photo of Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Isaiah Stewart: Brian Sevald / NBAE via Getty Images)
