Film Room: Figuring out Gemel Smith's value and his role

Earlier this month an arbitrator was tasked with assessing Gemel Smith’s value.

In a meeting in Toronto on Aug. 1, arguments were heard for and against the 24-year-old forward. The Stars were looking for a $715,000 contract with a two-way clause, meaning Smith would be paid less if sent to the AHL. Smith and his representation came to the meeting asking for $900,000 on a one-way deal.

In the end, Smith got his one-way deal, but the arbitrator ruled closer to the Stars favor when it came to financial value and awarded Smith a one-year, $720,000 deal.

While the negotiation provided a financial valuation, it brings up a bigger question: what type of value does Smith bring on the ice and how does he fit into the Stars’ long-term plans?

Based on traditional metrics Smith looks like an afterthought, and he really was treated that way last season. He played in 46 games and had 11 points, averaging 9 minutes, 26 seconds of ice time. In half of his appearances, he had 13 shifts or less.

The message and mantra from Ken Hitchcock was that Smith had to earn more opportunities. He needed to be more consistent and needed to better read the NHL. If he was able to do that he’d have more opportunities and would potentially play more minutes.

If we leave it at that and look at his final point total, one would assume the low usage was justified. Hitchcock was right, Smith never really elevated his game and there really wasn’t much reason to play him more than a handful of shifts each night.

But underlying numbers tend to tell a different story with Smith. His 53.67 CorsiFor is the second-best on the team among players who appeared in at least 10 games (Brett Ritchie led the team with a 56.37 CF%). With all of his points being primary markers (either goals or primary assists), his 1.56 primary points per 60 minutes rivaled Jamie Benn (1.7) and Alexander Radulov (1.64) and was better than Tyler Seguin (1.38).

Whether he had a direct impact or not, the Stars typically had the puck when Smith was on the ice. It’s a pretty simple recipe for success — if you have the puck you can’t get scored on — and in theory, those numbers tell a story where Hitchcock should have trusted Smith more and seen what he could do with actual opportunity.

Heading into this season, a coaching change could provide the opportunity Smith needs to elevate himself from a fringe, typically-scratched, player to a full-time NHL option. Jim Montgomery is supposed to usher in a new era of puck possession and playing with speed, and the advanced analytical community would tell you Smith fits the bill perfectly.

That’s where we head with today’s film room. Let’s see if the footage matches the advanced numbers. The idea is to get a better feeling of what Smith brings to the table and how he potentially fits in the Stars lineup, as he enters training camp in what feels like a three-man race with Remi Elie and Jason Dickinson for a lineup spot on opening night.

When looking at Smith’s film it’s important to remember that he was moved around quite a bit when in the lineup. His most frequent linemates at even strength were Elie and Ritchie, but that combination only accounts for 11.89 percent of his minutes.

Smith also spent somewhat frequent time with Jason Spezza, Martin Hanzal, Tyler Pitlick, Radek Faksa, and Mattias Janmark — really a hodgepodge of forwards not named Benn, Seguin, and Radulov.

No matter who he’s paired with, and there are quite a few combos that will come up in this film room, Smith played a simple, quick game, and worked to provide a bit of a spark in limited minutes.

Speaking of a spark, we’ll start with this play here off a neutral zone face-off in San Jose. The Stars lose the draw, but Smith puts in the effort to finish a hit on the opposing defenseman as he plays the puck.

There are lots of hits like this within Smith’s game. Nothing big, but little bumps that can both annoy and disrupt the opposition. Within a game setting, Smith’s effort really can’t be questioned, which you can see on this play against Vegas.

Effort and hard work become more effective with a bit of a speed, and that’s the main reason Smith is in the NHL.

In this situation, Smith is near the end of a shift, but he has enough burst to beat everyone to the open space for a zone entry, and then gets to the net before going off for a change.

Here is another example in a defensive setting, where Smith gets back to help disrupt a clean net drive by Vegas.

Smith’s ability to pick up speed quickly is a tool on the breakout. He does a decent job of showing his openness for defenders on short, quick-hitting passes in the defensive zone and attacks the neutral zone with pace.

It’s actually fitting that the prior clip involves a short pass from Julius Honka because he and Smith seemed to have developed good chemistry and played well off each other when given the chance last season.

While the clean zone exit and speed through the neutral zone are a positive, we do run into a negative here. More often than not Smith is entering the zone by trying to chip the puck into the corner and then trying to retrieve it.

This could be a product of past coaching, and if that’s the case we can give Smith a bit of a pass. But in order to really have success with Montgomery he’ll have to be willing to carry the puck more instead of turning possession into a 50-50 battle in the corner. To be fair, this is a comment that applies to many Stars forwards.

Once the puck is in the zone, Smith does a nice job working within a cycle and keeping possession. He’s a bit stronger than we give him credit for along the boards and because of his quick step, he can escape a chaotic situation by skating to space, like he does here against Vegas.

From that same game, his work down low helped create this goal by Faksa.

Smith has decent offensive skills but needs to trust his shot a bit more. When given a chance between a shot and an open pass, he’ll often take the pass like he does on this flubbed two-on-one.

Sometimes this is a trait of a younger player intentionally deferring to others. Smith can occasionally create that impression; while he’s confident enough carrying the puck and works hard to get it back, there seems to be some apprehension about really taking charge and creating a chance by shooting.

In 20 different games last season, including some in which he actually flirted with 13 minutes, Smith failed to register a shot on goal.

For example, the Stars would like to see more of this on the rush. Watch as Smith takes a hard, low shot that nearly creates a rebound goal for Ritchie.

When Smith scored last season it typically came in situations where he was right in front of the net and there really wasn’t any option other than shooting.

For me, this next goal is the best example of Smith’s offensive game. He uses speed in the zone to keep possession, gives up the puck, goes to the right spot, isn’t afraid to shoot, and works to get the rebound back for a tally.

Overall the film tends to match the numbers. When given a chance, Smith did his part in making sure the Stars kept the puck and therefore the team was a net positive when he was on the ice.

If you are looking for more from Smith, it will depend on him being more efficient in the final third of the ice. Instead of chipping and chasing, he needs to use his speed to enter the zone with possession more often. He needs to be willing to shoot a bit more, be less predictable and not always seemingly married to finding a pass no matter what.

Smith will likely never be a legitimate top-six option in the NHL, he isn’t a good enough finisher or a playmaker for that role. But as the NHL gets faster, forwards that can push the pace and are willing to work for the extra space become even more important within the bottom-six and Smith brings a slight edge. He’s a bit of a talker between the whistles, that makes him more of an annoyance for opponents.

With Martin Hanzal out for an extended time to start the season, Smith could be an ideal fit as the fourth-line center. He’s not going to have a primary point ratio similar to the big guns like he did last season, but with more minutes, maybe an average of 14 per game, he could have more of a net positive impact. Either way, we won’t truly know until Smith has a real chance to make the most of his opportunities and then potentially elevate his game.