With five years in the books, the American Athletic Conference has established itself as the deepest Group of 5 league. In four years since the P5/G5 divide, the AAC has earned the New Year’s Six berth twice, beating Florida State and Auburn in the process. As much as the league would like to be called a “Power 6,” that designation won’t be earned until there’s an automatic berth and it can keep coaches from leaving every year.
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But in 2018, the league faces a lot of questions at the top, especially at the quarterback position. All but one of the top teams will start this season with a different quarterback than the player who began last season. Some have a quarterback competition in camp, others have a starter who finished 2017 strong and now must carry the load.
There are two new coaches in the league, Josh Heupel at UCF and Sonny Dykes at SMU. Coaching turnover is common in the AAC; only four of the 12 head coaches have completed at least two seasons at their current school. This year, Heupel and Dykes take over programs coming off winning seasons, the former joining a self-proclaimed national champion. It might not be the best G5 league at the top, but every week is a test in the AAC, and that will be no different in 2018.
Championship game: UCF over Memphis
Predicting the East Division
No pressure on Heupel, right? While the standard he inherits at UCF is incredibly high, coming off an undefeated season, it helps to have perhaps the best quarterback in the country in McKenzie Milton. Heupel’s Missouri offense last year was inconsistent — scoring 54.3 points per game against seven teams that finished with losing records and 18.0 per game against six teams with winning records — but the good news is he has the most talented team in the AAC.
There’s reason to believe the momentum of last year’s 4-1 finish will continue for Temple, and that’s because of quarterback Frank Nutile, who took over in the second half of the season. He has last year’s two leading rushers back, plus big-play receiver Isaiah Wright. The defense must find new starters on the line and in the secondary. Non-conference games at Maryland and Boston College are winnable, but in-conference trips to Navy, UCF and Houston make for a very tough road slate overall.
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With Quinton Flowers no longer around to do everything on offense for USF, offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert has a challenge on his hands. This is the first time since 2012 that USF will have the same offensive coordinator for consecutive seasons. First, USF needs to pick a QB. There are three options, including Alabama and Arizona State transfer Blake Barnett. The Bulls’ defense was one of the most improved in the country last year, especially stopping the run. Can it continue? Don’t overlook special teams concerns, where USF allowed seven kicks to be blocked last year and must replace its departed All-AAC kicker.
Little went right on either side of the ball in Luke Fickell’s first season at Cincinnati, scoring 30 points once and allowing more than 30 eight times. Recruiting has brought in more depth, and there is returning skill on offense. The defense will have to be anchored by the line. The common thread in last year’s four wins was the defense, which allowed 21 points or fewer in each of them.
Randy Edsall thinks this year’s UConn team will be better, but there may be nowhere to go but up after finishing in the bottom 30 in scoring offense and defense last year — and that was with a nine-points-per-game improvement on offense. There’s optimism with senior quarterback David Pindell, but the defense will be almost completely new. Edsall knows how to win at UConn. It will take a few years to get the program back running the way he had it the first time.
East Carolina head coach Scottie Montgomery might be on the hottest seat in the country, with a 6-18 record in two seasons. A proud fan base has not been happy since Ruffin McNeill’s firing. The departure of quarterback Gardner Minshew (to Alabama and then Washington State) brings questions on offense, and last year’s defense allowed the most points per game in the country.
Predicting the West Division
A quarterback battle at Memphis between sophomore David Moore and Arizona State grad transfer Brady White is the biggest question, but there are explosive skill-position players, especially at running back. The defense should be better with more experience, and anything fewer than nine wins could be a disappointment.
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D’Eriq King brings play-making ability to Houston at quarterback, but he needs new running backs and receivers around him. An influx of transfers should help the talent level, and the defense led by Ed Oliver should be improved. The West Division could come down to Houston’s trip to Memphis in the final game of the regular season.
Ken Niumatalolo can’t stop gushing about Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry’s ability, but the offense must find new starters almost everywhere else. The defense also must fill a number of holes. The Midshipmen will always be a tough beat, but trips this season to Hawaii, SMU, Air Force, San Diego (for Notre Dame), Cincinnati, UCF, Tulane and Philadelphia (for Army) could make for tired bodies.
A team that several AAC coaches are scared of this year, Tulane brings back nine starters in Willie Fritz’s triple-option offense. That includes quarterback Jonathan Banks, who threw for 565 yards in the final two games last year. This offense will score, but a struggling defense has only three starters back. Maybe this team pushes for the division crown, or maybe it competes for a bowl game.
The addition of nearly 10 transfers raises SMU’s talent level from the spring, especially with three eligible receivers the coaches are very high on. This SMU offense should be able to score again, but time will tell what new defensive coordinator Kevin Kane can do with a porous defense. The schedule is very tough, with non-conference games against North Texas, Michigan and TCU. A bowl game would be a big accomplishment.
Tulsa, which had one of the nation’s best offenses in 2016, plummeted last year, starting with issues at quarterback. A 2-10 season included five losses by one possession. If sophomore Luke Skipper can become consistent, he has talented receivers to work with. Last year’s defense was decimated by injuries and added seven junior college transfers to attempt to fix holes.
Players to know
Tulane QB Jonathan Banks: Not your typical triple-option quarterback, Banks threw for 1,797 yards and ran for 592 last year.
Memphis RB Darrell Henderson: A 1,100-yard rusher who has 44 catches over the past two years, Henderson will be a versatile threat.
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Navy QB Malcolm Perry: Perry averaged 8.6 yards per carry last season, and now he’ll carry the offense.
Rising assistant
SMU defensive coordinator Kevin Kane: In two seasons as Northern Illinois defensive coordinator, Kane improved the scoring defense from No. 79 to No. 32. The 34-year-old has a tall task, taking over an SMU defense that hasn’t finished in the top 98 since 2012, but there’s certainly room for improvement.
