First it was Gary Sánchez’s strained groin at the end of June, then it was his re-aggravated strain after just three games back at the end of July. Then, a couple days later, it was Aaron Judge and a chip fracture after being hit by a pitch on his left wrist. Now, in the middle of August with an already stretched-thin roster and an increasingly tight Wild Card race, it’s Didi Gregorius’s heel.
Advertisement
The Yankees starting shortstop on Sunday went flying over Blue Jays first baseman Kendrys Morales while beating out a throw from second baseman Devon Travis, and landed awkwardly, slamming his heel into the ground to break his fall before rolling to a stop. After another inning in the field, Gregorius left to get tests done on what was a quickly developing bruise on his left heel.
Manager Aaron Boone described the bruise as “significant,” and said it’s likely Gregorius could hit the disabled list. The team has an off day Monday in Miami leading up to a two-game series before another off day followed by a four-game series in three days in Baltimore. If Gregorius does hit the DL, it’ll be Gleyber Torres getting time at shortstop while Ronald Torreyes and Neil Walker share second base. Walker is also pitching in as a newly developed right fielder.
Now 9 1/2 games back with 38 games to go, it’s clear the race in the AL East is over, and has been since the Yankees were swept in four games at Fenway earlier this month — if not before. They’re still on pace to be a 100-win team, despite Sánchez’s injury and offensively unproductive season before that, despite Judge’s injury, and despite intermittent if not sustained slumps after injury from Torres and Greg Bird, amongst others.
But with three franchise players on the disabled list — and CC Sabathia, though he is expected to make his next start — it’s worth assessing just what the Yankees would have had in production from Sánchez, Judge and Gregorius. This, it’s worth noting, does not include what they’ve lost from having Giancarlo Stanton in a DH-only role since that decisive series in Boston with a hamstring issue, which has required the Yankees to, again, put Walker in right, start Brett Gardner against lefties, and more days than not use Shane Robinson who has four hits in 18 games.
Advertisement
Gregorius has been consistent for the Yankees since bouncing back from his bizarre May super-slump. Since the beginning of June, Gregorius has hit .292/.347/.485/.832 with 11 home runs. It’s somehow made him only the fifth most productive Yankee hitter in that span of time, but still, clearly, impactful. He’s having a career season worth 4 fWAR so far, the fifth-best season by a shortstop in MLB.
In Sánchez it’s hard to know exactly what the Yankees would have had over the course of a full, unimpeded season because he never really came close to getting it together before his first stint on the disabled list. Last season, Sánchez was a 4.4 fWAR player, who hit .278/.345/.531 with 33 home runs.
The loss of Sánchez has had the Yankees turn to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka, with Romine being more productive offensively than in seasons past, but still not the power-hitting threat Sánchez is every time he steps into the batter’s box, slump or not. It’s also changed the way pitchers have thrown to their primary catcher.
Before the season, ZiPS projected Sánchez at finishing the season a 3.3 fWAR player with a line similar to last year. At this rate, ZiPS projects Sánchez will finish the regular season having played in 92 games, 28 less than his 2017 season, with an OPS of .728 at 1.6 fWAR.
In the outfield and at the plate, Judge has had a season to show his critics that he wasn’t a one-and-done Rookie of the Year in 2017. He has exceeded expectations, has a .947 OPS with 26 home runs, and has been largely slump-proof this season.
Fangraphs has him as a 5 WAR player through his most recent game, with a projection that he’ll tack on another 1.3 WAR by the end of the season on 131 games (virtually impossible with his 99 games through today and still no timetable for his return). Judge’s production is more steady, more reliable than what Sánchez has given the Yankees this season, and missing four-to-six weeks of games at full strength has narrowed their margins of winning as their pitching has given up a season-high five runs per game in August.
Advertisement
In July, the Yankees averaged 5.6 runs per game, and Judge had a .964 OPS and been the team’s second-best hitter behind Aaron Hicks. In August, they’ve averaged 5.05 runs per game and have now averaged five runs allowed per game, nearly a full run increase over July. It’s not certain that had Judge been active for the fatal series at Fenway he would have changed the equation, but he is one of the top 10 hitters in baseball by fWAR, and the fifth-best in wRC+ amongst all qualified batters at 156, making him 56 percent better than your average hitter.
In injuries to Judge, Sánchez and Gregorius, the Yankees will likely have somewhere around 10-11 wins above replacement on the disabled list. Twelve teams in baseball have combined for less than 11 fWAR amongst all batters on the season.
It was Judge’s injury that foretold the Yankees’ place as runners-up in the AL East and now, deep into August, they’re staring at a four-game lead in the wild card standings for home advantage. The Yankees, despite their injuries, are still likely to win 100 games. At their current pace they’d win 101 to 102 games, just shy of 2009’s 103 games. They have the weakest strength of schedule of any contender other than the Indians the rest of the season. They can still make it work, but they certainly, frustratingly, didn’t want it to be this way.
(Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)