Don’t look now but Young Stars is just over two weeks away, giving us our latest glimpse at the Canucks prospect pool that has improved mightily over the last few years
With the assistance of data from Jeremy Davis, we will be counting down Vancouver’s top 20 prospects. The list was compiled by myself and J.D. Burke and this year presented us with some challenges due to the Canucks growing prospect depth.
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In the past, there was largely a consensus top 10, and filling out the list became a matter of personal preference on players. This season, it was really difficult to stretch to 20 players without feeling like anyone was being overlooked.
When putting together these rankings I value skating, hockey IQ and on-ice work ethic. A high ceiling and potential will likely set a player apart from one with a suspected safer development curve.
In order to be eligible for the rankings, the player must still be eligible for the Calder Trophy. That means that someone like Nikolay Goldobin is excluded.
We begin our countdown with the 20th to 17th ranked prospects.
20. G Matthew Thiessen
Checking in as the 20th ranked prospect in the Canucks system is 2018 seventh-round pick Matthew Thiessen.
The 6-foot-2, 200-pound netminder came into the 2018 draft as the fourth-ranked goaltender in North America after a fantastic post-season in the MJHL that saw him post a 1.60 GAA and .943 SV% in 14 games, which was best among post-season goaltenders in both categories. This was after putting up a 2.06 GAA and .923 SV% in 34 regular season games, leading the MJHL in GAA and finishing second in SV%.
The Manitoba native is committed to attend the University of Maine in 2019-20 but will first head to the USHL and suit up for the Dubuque Fighting Saints this upcoming season. It will be a good stepping stone for the young netminder before heading to the NCAA.
Every goaltending analyst I have chatted with since June has spoken very highly of Thiessen’s ability, work ethic and technical game. Goaltenders are always a bit of a dice roll but Thiessen appears to be a good bet at that point in the draft. The Canucks are already strong in the net among their prospects with Thatcher Demko and Michael DiPietro progressing up the development ladder and now Thiessen is a good long-term option.
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Given that Thiessen has a late birth date among the 2018 draft-eligible players (June 9, 2000), he will have a reasonable window of up to five years of development and has a good foundation of skills. That makes him worthy of being in consideration as a top-20 prospect in the organization.
19. D Toni Utunen
Landing in the 19th spot is another 2018 draft pick in defenceman Toni Utunen.
Late last month, I did a video breakdown of Utunen and explained why he was a reasonable value bet at that point in the draft. Since then, Utunen went to Kamloops to represent Finland at the World Junior Summer Showcase. His game isn’t flashy, but there are aspects of it that are noteworthy if you keep an eye on him.
For the most part, Utunen played the left side at 5-on-5 and then shifted to the right side on the penalty kill in Kamloops.
When looking at his statistically comparable players, 10.9 per cent of his cohorts went on to become NHL regulars. This is based on his limited sample size in the Liiga, but just appearing in the top league in Finland as a draft-eligible player is always an encouraging sign.
The 5-foot-11, 170-pound defender’s calling card is smart plays that result in the puck going in the right direction. Ideally, he will add some more offensive chops to his game over the next couple of seasons in a larger role with Tappara. He will be in consideration for Finland for the world juniors this winter and remains eligible for the event the following year.
Utunen and Tappara will kick off their year with Champions Hockey League play on Aug. 31 against Storhamar Hamar.
18. C Tyler Madden
The first player to fall victim to the depth of the prospect pool is likely Tyler Madden.
In the past, Madden may have been in the conversation as a fringe top-10 prospect. This year he has ultimately landed in the 18th spot. With that in mind, Madden is a really interesting case study on how teams value draft-eligible prospects and their potential. Looking solely at the stats of Madden and using pGPS, Madden’s comparables don’t jump off the page:
With only 2.2 per cent of his statistical cohorts going on to become NHL regulars, there isn’t a lot of quantitive evidence to suggest that Madden will become an NHL player, let alone an effective one. If there is one thing that stands out about him, though, it’s his estimated points per 60 minutes of ice time:
Despite his poor GF%, he produced fairly well with the ice time that was afforded to him. The low success rate among his cohorts is why you combine the numbers and the eye test to fully evaluate players.
His standout skills are his skating, work ethic and determination. The Canucks are betting on the fact that Madden will get a large role with the Northeastern Huskies and will develop physically. It feels like the Canucks see a comparison between Madden and Adam Gaudette. Both players didn’t exactly light it up at the USHL level but had strong skating, work ethic and a base of skills that, with some development and luck, could pay off in the long run. It worked with Gaudette and there is hope that Madden can follow a similar path.
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It will be really interesting to follow the 5-foot-10, 150-pound Madden at Northeastern this season.
17. D Jack Rathbone
Another aspect of prospect analysis that plays into the evaluation process is the quality of competition (QoC). That was something that was applied to Matthew Thiessen and is a huge part of the breakdown of the 17th ranked prospect Jack Rathbone.
Rathbone was taken in the fourth round of the 2017 draft and went back for another year of high school hockey with Dexter. He saw some games with the Cape Cod Whalers U18 MHSL program that also had Philadelphia Flyers first-round pick Jay O’Brien.
He was on another level in high school hockey and was really noticeable in the games with the Cape Cod Whalers; as he should have been. This season he will head to Harvard, and that’s where the real evaluation process begins.
The 5-foot-10, 170-pound defender is an effortless skater that moves the puck efficiently and effectively. He isn’t afraid to do it all himself when the opportunity arises and still manages not to get into too much trouble when handling the puck. Rathbone’s upper body was noticeably larger at Canucks development camp in July and was playing more aggressively. During his first development camp in 2017, he looked timid and just trying to keep up, which is to be expected for a high school kid taking that first step into a professional organization. This past July, he looked like a much more confident player.
Harvard will be led by Adam Fox (Calgary draft pick and has since been moved to Carolina) and Reilly Walsh (New Jersey) on the back end but Rathbone could work himself up into a top-four role for them. There will be a bit of a learning curve as he adapts to the higher QoC but he has the base tools to be a breakout candidate in the NCAA over the next couple of years.
The organization has done really well with American prospects over the last few seasons, so there is a reason for optimism with Tyler Madden and Jack Rathbone.
While these four players all have intriguing skill sets, their longer development paths put them behind the organization’s other top prospects.
Madden and Rathbone will be rookies in the NCAA, but will both have every chance to make the most of their opportunity. Thiessen will take that next step up before heading to the NCAA and Utunen has a chance to hold down a regular spot in Liiga this season and could very well represent his country at the world juniors in Vancouver in December.
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There were a few other players that were in consideration to crack the top 20. and likely would’ve last season.
For this upcoming season, expect even more in-depth breakdown with stats and video of all of these prospects profiled here.
Tomorrow, we will continue the countdown with the 16th through 14th ranked prospects.
(Top photo of Jack Rathbone: Jeff Vinnick/NHLI via Getty Images)