Texas State upsets Baylor, pulls off first-ever win over Power 5 program: What it means for the Bobcats

Texas State upset Baylor 42-31 in its season opener Saturday at McLane Stadium. Here’s what you need to know:

The win is Texas State’s first ever over a Power 5 team. Baylor was favored to win by 28 points (-27.5 spread), per BetMGM.
Texas State quarterback TJ Finley completed 22 of 30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns. He added 18 yards and a score on the ground.
Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen completed 21 of 31 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns. He added one rushing touchdown.
Baylor coach Dave Aranda said Shapen, who played with a brace on his knee in the second half, hurt his MCL and will get an MRI.

The Athletic’s instant analysis:

What does this mean for Texas State?

This might be the biggest win in program history, certainly up there with winning the Division II national championship in 1981 and 1982. Texas State has felt like a school with a lot of potential but lacked the resources and stability — they use San Marcos High School’s indoor practice field. But recent changes at the top have brought alignment, including president Kelly Damphousse (who took over in 2022), athletic director Don Coryell (who took over in 2021) and coach GJ Kinne (this is his first season). In May, the school broke ground on a new football performance center, and now it has a win over Baylor to build upon.

When Kinne was named coach, some wondered if he rode the success of his predecessor to a 12-2 single season at Incarnate Word. But one game into his tenure, it’s clear the Bobcats have leveled up in the personnel department, especially with Finley at quarterback. Kinne is also repairing Texas State’s inroads with the Texas high school scene. The future in San Marcos looks bright. — Vannini

How Texas State pulled off the upset

Texas State pulled off the upset with an explosive offense led by Kinne and offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich. The coaching duo was behind one of the most productive units in FCS football in 2022, where Kinne and Leftwich led Incarnate Word to the FCS semifinals.

On Saturday, the Bobcats started quickly, keeping Baylor’s defense on its heels. Former LSU and Auburn quarterback Finley, who transferred to Texas State this offseason, put on a terrific performance.

The Bobcats churned out yards on the ground, too. An early 65-yard touchdown run by Ismail Mahdi gave Texas State an early 14-6 lead and the Bobcats had 114 rushing yards in the first half. They finished with 143.

The defense held its own, too, pressuring Baylor quarterbacks Shapen and Sawyer Robertson regularly. Texas State finished with three sacks and nine tackles for loss.

Although the Bobcats won just four games a year ago, this is a drastically different squad. Kinne brought in the second-most newcomers in FBS to Colorado, adding 53 scholarship players this offseason via recruiting and the transfer portal. If Saturday is any indication, Texas State may be a factor in the Sun Belt this season. — Khan

What it means for Baylor

This is a tough way to start Year 4 of the Aranda era. Losing at home is tough, it’s worse when getting outplayed the way Baylor did by a program outside of a power conference.

Since Aranda has taken over, they had one magical season — a Big 12 championship and a Sugar Bowl win in 2021 — but it was sandwiched between two disappointing seasons. After going 6-7 in 2022, this year was supposed to be a step in the right direction, but a loss like this raises some questions about what kind of season is in store for the Bears. Reigning Pac-12 champion Utah visits Waco, Texas, in Week 2, so the road gets even tougher for Baylor. — Khan

Required reading

(Photo: Raymond Carlin III / USA Today Sports)