It was never the intent, but the Dallas Stars have turned into the NHL’s version of a snake oil salesman during the Jim Nill era.
The summers in Texas have been filled with big moves and acquisitions. Even when the Stars aren’t making a big move they’re in on the conversation, like they were this summer during John Tavares’ free agency courtship. Summer is a time where hope springs eternal for the Stars, this addition or alteration is the one that will turn Dallas back into a Stanley Cup contender.
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In reality, the finished product has been faulty.
The Stars had the best record in the Western Conference during the 2015-16 season, but it was more of an anomaly. Since that brief postseason experience, Dallas has parted ways with a pair of head coaches and wasted much of the prime of a core that really could have contended for a Stanley Cup.
While Nill has brought hope to the franchise, the Stars have only made the playoffs twice in the past 10 seasons and, the past two years have been amongst the most disappointing in franchise history.
Despite the struggles, optimism was once again re-born this summer. Jim Montgomery has injected energy into the group as a rookie NHL head coach and comes bringing promise of a puck-possession style that could both yield positive results and, hopefully, make the Stars a more entertaining team to watch.
There is a promise to embrace the youth, uber-prospect Miro Heiskanen has arrived and Valeri Nichushkin is back after a two-year KHL hiatus. That promise should pair well with the big guns — Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and John Klingberg — and if Montgomery’s system takes, this could be a fun season in Texas.
But the Stars have fooled us before.
Last season Dallas sacrificed flair and excitement for Ken Hitchcock’s older teachings. It kept them in the playoff race for much of the season, but in the end, the overburdening of star players and mistrust of depth led to a historic collapse.
With Hitchcock’s retirement, Montgomery’s task is to pick up the pieces and find a sense of order for the franchise because another faulty season could lead to cataclysmic results.
Owner Tom Gaglardi is furious with a lack of return (playoff wins) on his investment. Falling short this season would likely lead to Tyler Seguin pursuing greener pastures, and if that happens Dallas is likely facing a real rebuild that Nill probably wouldn’t be around for.
A winning campaign and a return to the postseason makes the optimistic summer worthwhile. Another letdown and further fool’s gold? Well, let’s just say a lot is riding on this season for the Stars.
Biggest on-ice question: How will the Stars look under Jim Montgomery?
Looking at how his teams played at Denver and having conversations with Montgomery grant us an idea, but we won’t know for sure until the Stars actually take the ice in October.
Among the Stars’ biggest issues last season were a lack of creativity throughout the lineup and a willingness to turn possessions into 50-50 battles — or completely give them away. The Stars dumped the puck in frequently and iced it more than any other team in the NHL.
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Montgomery has acknowledged this and spoken at length about taking advantage of possession this season. He’s putting added emphasis on clean zone entries and he wants his defensemen to have the confidence to carry the puck and make a play rather than chip it off the glass and out at all costs.
Taking pride in controlling the ice is also going to be a point of emphasis. He wants to play more aggressively in all three zones.
“I believe you don’t give up any easy ice, it doesn’t matter where the puck is,” Montgomery told The Athletic. “I want to challenge every puck with a good angle speed and body on top of it and layers in behind it. So, the layers is similar to last year. I think how quickly we pressure pucks is going to be different. I don’t think guys are going to be able to stay out on the ice as long as they did last year — not that they stayed long last year, because they had to work last year and they did a great job. I mean, the defensive numbers speak for themselves but we, as a team, are going to try and aggressively cause more turnovers this year. I guess that will be the difference and that’s all over the ice. It’s in the D zone from what I’ve seen, it’s on rush defense in particular, the forecheck is probably going to be very close.”
Biggest on-ice question, No. 2: Where will the secondary scoring come from?
The Stars don’t like this narrative, but there are still huge questions about depth scoring in Dallas. The team only had seven players hit double figures for goals last season, which was last in the NHL.
The Stars made some minor moves this summer, but didn’t really address the issue and are relying heavily on in-house answers.
There is hope that Jason Spezza will be able to find some resemblance of his old form after butting heads with Hitchcock last season. Valeri Nichushkin’s return from the KHL is also a reason for optimism, but the Russian didn’t exactly look like a bona fide scorer overseas. Mattias Janmark and Radek Faksa have also been labeled as potential solutions, while Brett Ritchie is also in the same conversation.
It doesn’t matter which player, but someone is going to have to take up the mantle of depth scoring or the Stars will once again be a one-line team with a dynamic trio that could be burned out by late February.
Biggest on-ice question, No. 3: How good is Miro Heiskanen?
Heiskanen is 19 years old and considered the top defensive prospect on the planet not named Rasmus Dahlin. The Stars are betting big on the No. 3 overall pick from the 2017 draft. So big, that he was the stumbling block that negated a potential Erik Karlsson trade with Ottawa back in July.
Heiskanen is incredibly polished for a teenager, some have even compared him to Niklas Lidstrom (no pressure, kid), but his game is going to come with a learning curve and Montgomery has said that he’s willing to let the Finn play through his mistakes and grow his game.
If Heiskanen can deliver on the hype he could be one of the Stars’ top-four defenders by Christmas. If that’s the case the Stars defense will be in an ideal spot to at least compete for a wild-card spot in the tough Central Division.
Biggest on-ice question, No. 4: What does this all mean for Tyler Seguin?
It’s not really an on-ice question, but Seguin’s future is a huge storyline this season for the Stars, similar to the John Tavares situation last season for the New York Islanders.
Seguin enjoys Dallas and, in theory, would like to stick around. But winning and money are important to the impending free agent. He needs reassurance he can get both of those with the Stars, and as long as an extension isn’t signed it’s an outside factor that could impact Seguin and the team.
Depth chart analysis
Center: While Seguin’s long-term future is in question, in the short-term his status at the top of the Stars lineup is unquestioned. He’s going to play big minutes, he’s going to play in key situations, and if the Stars are to succeed this season he could receive Hart Trophy consideration.
After Seguin this becomes a bit of a puzzle that Montgomery has to piece together. While Spezza has spent time at wing in the past couple seasons, Montgomery looks at him as a center and expects to use the veteran primarily in his traditional position. The exact hierarchy is to be determined, but the middle-six centers are going to shake out as Spezza and Radek Faksa.
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The fourth-line center position is up for grabs in the short-term and it could be a full-time job depending on Martin Hanzal’s health. Hanzal has been skating and is recovering on-schedule after back surgery this past spring, but he isn’t a realistic lineup option until late November or early December.
That creates a situation where Devin Shore, Gemel Smith, Jason Dickinson, and Roope Hintz are all jockeying for center-ice minutes in training camp. If he’s looked as a center, Shore will have the early edge based on NHL experience, but he could also be deployed higher in the lineup as a winger.
Right wing: The Stars’ big Russians lead this list, starting with Alexander Radulov who spent most of last season playing on Seguin’s wing. The 32-year-old winger had 72 points last season and was the Stars’ spark plug in his first season in Dallas — if Dallas needed an energy boost, Radulov was often providing the spark on the ice or on the bench.
Nichushkin’s return comes with some major questions, especially for a team looking to establish more depth scoring. Based on raw talent Nichushkin looks like a top-six winger in the NHL, but the results have been varied and he wasn’t exactly a dynamic scorer during hit two-season sabbatical in the KHL. At first glance, it looks like Nichushkin’s job on the second line, but if he can’t deliver Brett Ritchie could be given another chance in the top-six or Shore could end up elevated in the lineup.
Tyler Pitlick was the ideal third-line winger last season and likely to fills a similar role this season. He was fully healthy for the first time in his NHL career last season and did a little bit of everything in his role. It’s unfair to expect a huge jump from his 27-point season, but Pitlick could be due for a slight bump depending on his usage and opportunity.
With Nichushkin penciled in on the second line, Ritchie likely starts on the fourth. The winger is heading into a crossroads in a career — what type of player is he going to be? He has the tools and fits in as a fourth-liner, and he’s not afraid to play that way, but the Stars have always hoped for a bit more out of the 25-year-old who scored 16 goals two seasons ago.
Left wing: Like the other forward positions, it’s a bit top-heavy with a clear-cut No. 1 in Stars captain Jamie Benn. Benn will likely spend much of the season playing with Seguin and Radulov but could spend time on the so-called second line if the Stars want to split up their top trio.
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After Benn, the Stars have high hopes for Mattias Janmark, who turned into one of the NHL’s best stories last season after missing the entire 2016-17 campaign. If the Stars are going to get secondary scoring Janmark is a prime candidate, and it’s a pretty fair bet that he’ll start the season playing on Spezza’s wing.
Blake Comeau is filling a void on the third line and should actually provide a bit of an offensive improvement over Antoine Roussel, who signed as a free agent in Vancouver this summer. Comeau could also be an option on the right side if Nichushkin and Ritchie fail to deliver in the top-six.
After the top nine, the fourth line left-wing spot is going to depend heavily on who wins the fourth-line center role. Remi Elie, Smith, Dickinson, or Shore could be in this spot and it’s going to be one of the more hotly-contested battles in training and the preseason.
Left defense: There is palpable excitement in Dallas around Heiskanen’s NHL arrival. The teenager is going to start the season in the NHL; the bigger question remains how quickly he’ll grab a top-four spot on the Stars blue line.
At this point, Montgomery’s plan is to have Heiskanen playing his best hockey and at an NHL comfort level by Christmas, but there is hope that he’ll be able to accelerate even more quickly into an ideal role on the second pairing.
This is where Marc Methot comes in as a stop-gap and lineup piece that will be shuffled by Heiskanen’s progress. Realistically Methot will start the season with second-pairing minutes but will end up in more of a third-pair role by the midway point of the season.
The first0pairing job still belongs to Esa Lindell who is heading into his third full season as Klingberg’s running mate.
Right defense: If the Stars hadn’t fallen off a cliff at the end of the season, Klingberg would have been more of a Norris Trophy candidate this past spring. The 26-year-old set a career-high with 67 points last season and is on the cusp of thrusting himself completely into the conversation as one of the NHL’s top overall defensemen.
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Stephen Johns lines up behind Klingberg and could be the ideal long-term partner for Heiskanen. After that, it’s a two-way battle between Julius Honka and Roman Polak for the final spot in the lineup. It should be Honka’s job to win and with how Montgomery wants to push puck possession he should have an edge, but Polak was brought in as an insurance policy in case the former first-round pick fails to find his confidence and game in the NHL.
Goalie: It’s Ben Bishop’s net and he’s the undisputed No. 1 in Dallas, but Anton Khudobin was brought in to help keep Bishop fresh and provide a safety net in case of an injury — which is one of the main reasons Dallas faltered last season. No one has officially assigned a number yet, but expect Bishop to play close to 55 games in an effort to keep him healthy and fresh for the playoffs.
Special Teams
Power play: This is an area where the Stars should be fun to watch. There is significant, well, star power with Benn, Seguin, Radulov, and Klingberg. Spezza is still able to produce on the power play but was never really trusted in that situation when Hitchcock ran the show.
Last season the top unit worked best when Seguin had more freedom on the power play. While he has succeeded waiting on the circle for the Ovechkin-like one-timer, the Stars were more dangerous when he was roving a bit more on the left side — doing some work below the goal line and occasionally working the half-wall.
These are the types of things the Stars coaching staff has broken down on film in recent weeks, and Montgomery is using a collective brain trust when it comes to power play ideas. Assistant coach Todd Nelson oversaw one of the AHL’s top power plays in Grand Rapids the past couple seasons and has a reputation for being aggressive and applying pressure with the man advantage.
The second unit comes with some question marks and figuring out its makeup will be something to watch this season. Heiskanen and Honka should have an inside track to run the points with this unit, but the forwards really are anyone’s guess. Nichushkin should be in the group, so should Faksa. Shore played on the power play last season, but none of the forwards have really cemented a spot on the second unit at this point.
Penalty kill: The penalty kill isn’t going to change that much from last season when the Stars ranked 14th in the league at 80.8 percent — a massive improvement from one of the NHL’s worst-ever penalty kills during the 2016-17 season.
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Faksa and Pitlick return as the first forward options while shorthanded, while Seguin is also expected to continue killing penalties after thriving in that role last season. Janmark, Shore, and Benn also killed penalties in the past, while Hanzal — if healthy — is a force on face-offs who will be used in shorthanded situations.
On defense, Methot and Johns are expected to get the lion’s share of the shorthanded minutes, but Lindell and Klingberg will also have opportunities to kill penalties. Heiskanen is part of the long-term plan on the PK, but Montgomery is willing to be patient with his shorthanded minutes this season as he ramps up his game to bigger responsibilities.
In the Pipeline
Center: Hintz is going to compete for an NHL job in training camp and could be a call-up this season, but is likely going to start the season in the AHL. Hintz took major strides last season with Texas, had a brief NHL call-up (but never played) on an emergency basis, and likely benefitted from the AHL affiliate’s run to the Calder Cup Final.
Long-term, the hope is that Ty Dellandrea eventually becomes the home-grown, top-line center that the Stars have lacked. Dallas really lacks scoring punch in its prospect pool and Dellandrea is the type of player who could potentially make up for some past misses in the draft.
Left wing: The Stars signed Michael Mersch as a free agent this summer to fill a void left by former AHL captain Curtis McKenzie. The 25-year-old has 17 games of NHL experience and was a force for the Ontario Reign, but was never able to get over the hump within the Los Angles Kings system. Mersch was historically dominant against Texas, which is why the Stars went out and signed him for depth on the wings.
Riley Tufte is returning to Minnesota-Duluth for his junior season after winning a national title with the Bulldogs as a sophomore. He’s expected to turn pro next spring once his college season comes to an end and will likely join the Texas Stars on an ATO.
Right wing: If there is a front-runner for a call-up on the right side it’s Denis Gurianov, but the Russian forward struggled in the AHL playoffs and was scratched in the biggest games when Texas was trying to win a title. If there is a call-up on the wing, on either side, it’s likely going to be Mersch or Erik Condra who was signed as an AHL veteran.
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Long-term, Jason Robertson could provide some offensive pop for the Stars. There are still some issues with his skating and he needs to work that out, but his finishing ability is something few Stars prospects possess.
Left defense: Dillon Heatherington doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but he could fill in admirably on the Stars’ third-pairing to start this season. The Stars have been burned while carrying eight defensemen in the past before, so Heatherington will likely start the season in the AHL if he clears waivers during training camp.
Right defense: Gavin Bayreuther was a bit of a late bloomer before he signed with the Stars as college free agent and his showing in the Calder Cup Playoffs was a nice testament to his growth throughout the season. Bayreuther is still a season or two from being a legit NHL option but could play this season in a pinch.
Goalie: The Stars don’t have a proven goalie in the AHL this season and will rely on prospects Colton Point and Landon Bow. The organization has higher hopes for Point, who was one of the best goalies in college hockey last season at Colgate, but the first call-up will go whichever AHL goalie is playing best at the moment.
Long-term the hope is that Jake Oettinger, who returned to Boston University for his junior season, and Point will push each other and be ready to take over the starter’s role near the end of Bishop’s current deal.
Salary Cap Watch
Heading into training camp the Stars have close to $76 million committed to the salary cap and roughly $3 million in cap space depending on how many forwards they carry into opening night. The Stars also have a chance to free up extra cap space with Hanzal’s injury and could put the center on long-term IR if he isn’t able to recover in a timely manner.
If the Stars are to make a move, which is still in the realm of possibility — and they’ve kicked the tires on a deal for Erik Karlsson — they have the cap space to get it done this season with a little bit of maneuvering.
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Long-term, things set up well, even if the Stars are going to need to make a major financial commitment to Seguin. Spezza’s $7.5 million cap hit comes off the books next summer and Klingberg still has three years remaining on a team-friendly deal worth $4.25 million per season.
The Hanzal contract is a frustrating fact of life, but it isn’t the major obstacle it could have been with Kari Lehtonen coming off the books this summer and Marc Methot’s $4.9 million cap hit set to fall off next summer.
Final assessment
The Stars are at a crossroads and 2018-19 will be a fascinating season for the franchise with a new coach, an exciting young prospect, and an all-world player with a major decision to make.
While other teams in the Central Division got stronger, the Stars have the tools to compete for a wild-card spot in the Western Conference and doing so would be a welcome change after their on-ice performance in the past two seasons.
I’m sure the Stars would willingly trade those exciting summers for shorter ones after a playoff run.