The week leading up to the season is where all the writers and pundits unleash their season predictions. Who will win the division? Who will win the Super Bowl? Who will win MVP? Those are fun in their own way but can get repetitive.
Instead of your typical predictions, we’re going to forecast some bold predictions for the Dallas Cowboys this year. These have an added level or two of spice to them but, and this is important, still have a sense of practicality to them. We’re not going for outlandish hot takes devoid of logic. Without further ado, from Micah Parsons’ MVP conversation to Hunter Luepke’s production to the Cowboys at the trade deadline and more, let’s look at 10 bold predictions for the 2023 season.
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1. Micah Parsons will finish top five in MVP voting, the highest non-quarterback vote-getter.
I’m not quite bold enough to even consider it in the realm of practicality to predict a non-quarterback winning MVP, especially since it hasn’t happened since Adrian Peterson in 2012 and especially since some oddsmakers, such as BetMGM, have 23 quarterbacks, including Daniel Jones and Jordan Love listed before getting to a non-quarterback. Even then, Christian McCaffrey is the first non-quarterback, followed by 14 other players before you finally reach Micah Parsons at +15,000.
I do believe a quarterback will win the award but I think Parsons is primed for such a big season that he will finish in the top five of MVP voting and will only be looking up on the ballot at four quarterbacks. Parsons was a wrecking ball throughout training camp and there’s no reason to believe, barring injury, that he’ll slow down from what he’s shown in his first two NFL seasons. I also think the Cowboys’ secondary will be better, leading to a few more coverage sacks, giving Parsons credit for some of those close calls that don’t always finish.
2. Trey Lance will play in six games this season.
Again, let’s keep this practical. I’m not predicting Lance starts six games or anything like that. But entering the season, Lance’s spot on the depth chart is QB3 who will be inactive on game days. If he does enough in practices to earn the coaches’ trust and intrigue, I wonder if Mike McCarthy installs a package to get him on the field situationally in games.
To be clear, this isn’t to say he truly usurps Cooper Rush on the depth chart, though he technically would to be QB2 on game days. It’s more of a thing where maybe Lance is QB2 on game days while Rush is the inactive QB3. If Dak Prescott was to go down, Lance steps in to finish the game but then Rush would start the following week. A lot of it depends on what Lance shows in practices in his development but if management has saddled you with a player taking up a roster spot, why not try to get creative and maximize his abilities, even if it is in a limited capacity?
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3. Dak Prescott will lead the NFC in touchdown passes.
This sounds grandiose, until you realize that two years ago, Prescott’s last complete season, he threw 37 touchdowns, which was tied with Patrick Mahomes for fourth in the league. The two NFC guys in front of him that year were Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford. The former is no longer in the league and the latter is not set up for success the way Prescott is. In 2022, Prescott’s 37 touchdowns would have led the NFC, as Geno Smith led the way with 30.
It comes down to two factors. First, there’s a serious lack of competition. In terms of passers, you’re looking at Jalen Hurts, Smith, Stafford, Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins and maybe Brock Purdy and Justin Fields? Maybe Jordan Love if he pans out? It’s hardly a gauntlet. Secondly, adding Brandin Cooks to the equation should be a boost and Jalen Tolbert looked good in training camp as well.
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4. Cowboys will trade for an offensive lineman midseason.
The Cowboys didn’t do anything to bolster their offensive line through the open market the last couple of months, which frankly, given what was available, it’s hard to blame them. For a true talent up front, you’re going to have to give something up and it’s conceivable that the Cowboys get put in that position by the time the trade deadline rolls around. Things have already started to get dicey with Tyler Smith having a hamstring issue ahead of Week 1, and that’s before Tyron Smith eventually missing some games as well.
Maybe their current depth of Chuma Edoga, Asim Richards and T.J. Bass comes through. Maybe not. The vibes of the offensive line feel somewhat similar, though not nearly as dire, as the wide receiver position in 2018. The group looked thin going into the season, those thoughts were confirmed through the first half of the year and the Cowboys got Amari Cooper at the deadline.
5. Hunter Luepke will finish top 3 in rushing touchdowns on the team.
The year the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl under McCarthy in 2010, who led the team in rushing touchdowns during the regular season? It was fullback John Kuhn, with a whopping four scampers into the end zone. The next year he led the Packers again in rushing touchdowns and nearly did it again in 2015. Now, they were very low totals and more so because the Packers didn’t have nearly the talent as the Cowboys this year in the running back room but hey, we’re getting bold, right?
Ezekiel Elliott led the team in rushing touchdowns last year with 12 and Tony Pollard had nine. Pollard, and perhaps Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn, should have dibs on the carries but if the Cowboys find themselves routinely inside the 5 and need a back to hammer it in, Luepke could be the guy.
6. Jalen Tolbert will finish top 3 on the team in receiving yards.
I understand that many Cowboys fans are skeptical of Tolbert because of the rookie season disappointment and want to see things materialize in real competition before going all-in. I get it. But if there is one guy in the receiver room I’d choose to overperform his expectations, it would be Tolbert, and I could see that being enough to potentially cross Michael Gallup in receiving yards. CeeDee Lamb will clearly be the top guy and Brandin Cooks’ veteran savvy and deep-ball potential should rack up big totals. But if the right opportunities present themselves, Tolbert could be in line for a pretty good season.
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The other part of this is that Tolbert should also get on the field more. Jake Ferguson looks promising at tight end but in pure passing downs, the Cowboys could just go with four wideouts as their options. If Tolbert is on the field and running routes, his style of play is one that Prescott likes quite a bit, maybe even more than Gallup, depending on where the Cowboys are on the field.
7. Deuce Vaughn will lead the team in return yardage.
The Cowboys, at least publicly, don’t appear terribly concerned with KaVontae Turpin’s fumbles but he had three last season and lost two of them. He added another fumble a few weeks ago in the preseason opener. One more miscue like that and the Cowboys could turn to another option in Vaughn, who showed some juice in the return game during the preseason.
Even if it wasn’t about the ball security, the Cowboys have been pretty committed to increasing Turpin’s role on offense. If they feel the need to preserve him for that side of the ball, Vaughn could become the kickoff and punt returner.
8. Tyron Smith will only miss two games.
Smith has missed at least three games in each of the last seven seasons, including missing a combined 33 games the last three seasons. Predicting injuries and availability, bold or not, is always so random. Sometimes, all it takes is one awkward landing or one weird hit. At the same time, maybe that weird hit or awkward landing never happens. Smith is a hard-working guy who does things the right way. This is the year the football gods smile down on him.
9. DaRon Bland will have twice as many interceptions as anybody else on the team.
This is another one where it sounds a lot crazier than it might actually be. Who led the Cowboys in interceptions last season? That’s correct, it was Bland with five. Trevon Diggs was second on the team with three, so Bland almost made this one happen last year.
It sounds crazy because Stephon Gilmore is a lockdown corner and former Defensive Player of the Year, Diggs is just one year removed from having 11 interceptions in a season and Jourdan Lewis has always been somewhat of a ball magnet. For all of the reasons many expect Diggs’ interception total to go up — mainly, Gilmore locking things down on one side — it’s just as conceivable that opposing quarterbacks try to avoid Gilmore and Diggs, opening things up for Bland.
10. Sam Williams will finish second on the team in sacks.
Williams finished with four sacks as a rookie, which was good for sixth on the team last year, just behind safety Donovan Wilson. This is the year he takes a leap. On the field, Williams has looked good in camp, utilizing his speed and power. With Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence higher on the list of things to worry about for opposing offensive coordinators, Williams should get a lot of one-on-one opportunities. He’ll take advantage of them and have the most sacks on the team of any player not named Parsons.
(Top photo of Micah Parsons: Wesley Hitt / Getty Images)
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