When the 2023 NFL schedule was released, the Dallas Cowboys’ Week 2 home opener was a big one.
Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets were coming to town. The Jets are still making the trip, but — as everyone knows — Rodgers is out for the season after tearing his Achilles in the Jets’ Week 1 game against the Buffalo Bills. Rodgers was injured early, so Zach Wilson had pretty much the entire game to prepare for this week, plus, the Jets still pulled off a huge victory, beating the Bills in overtime.
We asked The Athletic’s Cowboys reporters Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf about the Sunday matchup. Here’s what they told us:
With Aaron Rodgers out for the season, this game loses a lot of its appeal. How will that affect the Cowboys?
Machota: As much as some players, like Micah Parsons, were looking forward to facing Rodgers, they’re clearly more likely to defeat a team with Zach Wilson at quarterback. New York still has one of the better defenses in the league. They’ll make things difficult on Dak Prescott and company. But the Dallas defense has a significant advantage now facing a QB who has won eight games compared to one who has won 148 games, a Super Bowl and four MVPs.
Advertisement
Yousuf: There’s no question game day loses its appeal without the storylines of Mike McCarthy vs. Rodgers or Rodgers’ history of being the grim reaper in Dallas. However, this Cowboys season is about more than any one regular-season game, which makes this game very important for Dallas in the big picture. This regular season is about ensuring that in January, when division and conference races tighten up with the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers, respectively, the Cowboys haven’t left any games on the table. This game is an extremely winnable one they need to have in their back pocket.
GO DEEPER
Cowboys will be hard to beat if players continue to outperform their slot
The Cowboys’ defense was excellent in Week 1. What do you expect from them with Zach Wilson stepping in as Jets quarterback?
Machota: I expect Dallas’ defense to make Wilson very uncomfortable. It will start with stopping the run. The Jets averaged a league-best 6.1 yards per carry Monday night. They will want to lean heavily on running backs Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. Dallas’ run defense started out shaky Sunday night against the New York Giants. That could be an issue. I just don’t think it will be enough of an issue for the Cowboys to lose this game. Eventually, Wilson will have to make some key throws, and that’s when the Dallas defense will make them pay with QB hits and turnover opportunities.
Yousuf: Wilson’s predecessor, Sam Darnold, once made a comment in 2019 about seeing ghosts in a game against the New England Patriots. I expect the Cowboys’ defense to make Wilson feel a similar type of way Sunday. Wilson’s best bet at success would be for the Jets’ offense to establish a run game to help utilize play action. If Wilson has to start shouldering the load as a passer, it’ll turn into a game of pick-your-poison between getting victimized by the Dallas pass rush or the secondary.
The Jets picked off Josh Allen three times in beating the Buffalo Bills. How will the Cowboys attack the Jets’ defense?
Machota: This will be a good test for McCarthy and Prescott. They didn’t have to show much against the Giants because the game was so lopsided. But there will need to be more production in the passing game, particularly in the middle of the field. Tight ends Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot had some drops Sunday night. They will have to be better against the Jets as they will likely get even more opportunities. Veteran WR Brandin Cooks (knee) might not play, so Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert will likely be needed more than they were in the season opener.
Advertisement
Yousuf: Given the Jets’ talent on the perimeter, I would expect the Cowboys to attack the underneath game in the middle. The priority will be to once again keep a clean sheet in the turnover battle and to play off of the dominance of the Cowboys’ defense. A mixture of running and the short passing game — particularly an opportunity at redemption for the tight ends — would seem to be the formula. That would set the stage for Prescott to catch the defense sleeping with a big play or two down the field.
GO DEEPER
Plays that stood out from Mike McCarthy’s first game as Cowboys' offensive play caller
Who are the three most important players for the Cowboys for their matchup vs. the Jets?
Machota: Outside of Parsons and Prescott, I’ll go with DT Johnathan Hankins, Ferguson and Gallup. Hankins because of the Jets run game. If he plays well, that should be a good sign for the Dallas run defense. With Dalton Schultz gone, Ferguson has the potential to have a big year, and this could be an ideal breakout opportunity. Gallup because even if Cooks plays, he’s unlikely to be 100 percent. There needs to be another wide receiver to complement CeeDee Lamb. Gallup says he’s back to the player he was before the knee injury. He was targeted only twice against the Giants. Including the playoffs, the Cowboys were 8-1 last season when Gallup caught at least three passes.
Yousuf: Parsons and Prescott are the most important every week so let’s look beyond that. This is a game where the defense should be the unit carrying the team to victory. Two players who will be important on defense will be DeMarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch. The New York Giants showed just how much opposing teams will throw double teams at Parsons so that should create more opportunities for others on the defensive line. If Lawrence can establish the tempo on the other side, the Jets will have nowhere to go. On the second layer, if Vander Esch can lead the linebackers in shooting gaps and stopping the run, the Jets will be forced to win because of Wilson, which is exactly what the Cowboys would want. Offensively, Ferguson should have more opportunities to get involved in the passing game. He’s talked about the importance of making catches, which will be especially important in short-yardage situations on third downs and the red zone.
Prediction?
Machota: With Rodgers, this game would be a coin flip. Without him, the Cowboys win by at least a touchdown. Dan Quinn and the Dallas defense would love to have another seven sacks and 12 QB hits. But the stat the Cowboys most need to replicate from last Sunday night is the zero turnovers. If they don’t give the Jets any short fields or defensive scores, everything else will take care of itself. Cowboys 27, Jets 13.
Yousuf: The Cowboys are favored by 9.5, which is a pretty wide margin by NFL standards. The Jets’ defense is legit but there just isn’t enough there holistically for that team to match the Cowboys. The greatest chance at a Cowboys loss is if they beat themselves with sloppy play and losing the turnover battle significantly. Cowboys 28, Jets 10.
(Micah Parsons, bottom, and Sam Williams sack Daniel Jones: Ed Mulholland / USA Today)
The Football 100, the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, goes on sale this fall. Pre-order it here.