Penn State-Iowa football preview: Keys, storylines and predictions for White Out showdown

Oct 12, 2019; Iowa City, IA, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin (left) and Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Kirk Ferentz (right) shake hands before the game at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
By Audrey Snyder and Scott Dochterman
Sep 21, 2023

It seems like every few years we get a collision-course matchup between Penn State and Iowa. They last played in 2021, when No. 3 Iowa rallied from a 14-point deficit to beat No. 4 Penn State 23-20 at Kinnick Stadium.

The outcome became somewhat of a footnote at the end of their six-year “protected” Big Ten series, however. Iowa fans notoriously booed injured Penn State players, some who were seriously hurt, in part because a few players appeared to have fallen to stall Iowa’s limited offensive success. In the ensuing days of that clash, the coaches became involved and a war of words erupted. They didn’t play in 2022, so the furor semi-dissipated. But now that the unbeaten teams are set to face off in State College, all of that vitriol has risen to the surface.

So with Saturday night’s White Out game almost here, The Athletic’s Penn State beat writer Audrey Snyder and Iowa beat writer Scott Dochterman are here to discuss the game and other topics related to the No. 7 Nittany Lions (3-0) and No. 24 Hawkeyes (3-0).

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It's White Out week at Penn State. Which ones were the most memorable?

Dochterman: So, Audrey, here we are two years after “Scuba” and “Turtle.” It almost seems like this matchup deserves a “gate” moniker of some sorts.

Snyder: It’s the White Out game with lots of bad blood mixed in thanks to injury-gate. Penn State has a real opportunity Saturday night during to lean into this and play Taylor Swift’s “Bad Blood” during warmups. I’m not sure they’ll be that cheeky, but I would do it.

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Because injuries — perceived or otherwise — are now on our minds, I wanted to ask you about what Iowa does without its top running backs. Penn State is mostly healthy at this point. The big question here is starting wide receiver Harrison Wallace III, who warmed up but didn’t play against Illinois. It’s unclear if he’ll play Saturday. But James Franklin said Tuesday that we all know Iowa and what kind of game this could be. Penn State expects this to be one of those grind-it-out kind of games. Can Iowa do that, given the current health of its roster?

Dochterman: Great question, Audrey. Iowa is capable of playing that Rocky Balboa to Penn State’s Apollo Creed type of game, but the injuries on offense make it much more difficult to pull it off. Not to be hyperbolic, but junior Luke Lachey was playing as well as any Iowa tight end I’ve seen and is definitely in the same grouping as T.J. Hockenson, George Kittle, etc. That loss is significant. Injuries to Kaleb Johnson and Jaziun Patterson will limit the running game, although Iowa has one more upper-level runner in Leshon Williams.

The Hawkeyes finally have an ascending offensive line, but I know what they face this week, so at best it may be a stalemate. But I’ve seen more pedestrian Iowa offenses work through these conditions, provided they take care of the ball. It’s certainly no thing of beauty, but it’s the outcome that matters, right? On that note, I’ve been fascinated to watch Drew Allar’s growth from elite prospect to starter. How has he looked overall and what happened last week at Illinois?

Drew Allar has eight TD passes and zero INTs at Penn State. (Ron Johnson / USA Today)

Snyder: The sophomore has yet to turn the ball over in a Penn State uniform, helping the Nittany Lions to a whopping plus-seven turnover margin. In the first two games, he was superb. He showed against West Virginia and Delaware some of the kinds of throws and impressive arm angles that we saw snippets of last season when he backed up Sean Clifford. He has special arm talent, no doubt, and before the season started I predicted Allar would be among the top five quarterbacks in college football by the end of 2023.

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I still think he’s trending that way. Though Franklin has had some talented quarterbacks here, he’s never had someone so gifted. What happened against Illinois — Allar completed 16-of-33 passes for 208 yards in a 30-13 win — was a bit of a reality check. The good news for Penn State was that he didn’t panic and start forcing throws. It was simply one of those off days where he was missing some throws that he should make. Not having Wallace out there was part of it, and he wasn’t helped by drops by the receiving corps and too much pressure allowed by the offensive line, especially in the first half.

So now we’ve seen Allar in a game where everything didn’t go his way, and I suspect we might see some of that Saturday night too. Is this Iowa defense special? Why should Penn State fans be worried about Cooper DeJean and the Hawkeyes?

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Dochterman: Organically grown, Penn State-Iowa has become the Big Ten's best rivalry that's not a rivalry

Dochterman: The Hawkeyes have won eight of their last nine games and allowed 10 total touchdowns. Three were on passing plays of 50-plus yards, and three were in the final two minutes of action in garbage time. This is a quality defense right now, but it’s still a little off from last year’s elite-level unit.

Losing first-rounders like Jack Campbell and Lukas Van Ness along with NFL players Riley Moss and Kaevon Merriweather has the Hawkeyes working through a few issues. Their first three opponents have opted for quick passing games to negate the pass rush, and that has prevented them from getting sacks. But they are deep up front and have talent, so that will come in time.

What Iowa does best on the back end is play zone with eyes always on the quarterback. They’re so disciplined that when quarterbacks try to do too much, that’s when the interceptions happen. No Big Ten team has more first-team all-conference DBs than Iowa since 2009, and DeJean is the best of the bunch. He’s a high-level cover corner and a special player if he touches the ball. I think this defense will become one of the nation’s 10 best by season’s end, but they still have work to do.

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Speaking of which, from what I’ve seen, Penn State might have the best defense in the country. What makes this year’s version different from those in the past?

Snyder: So much has been talked said and written about Allar and the offense, but you’re right about the defense. It’s an elite group, even after losing CB Joey Porter Jr. and S Ji’Ayir Brown to the NFL. Kalen King has stepped into the role of a shutdown corner. Johnny Dixon was someone I heard a lot about all offseason, and it’s carried into the season as the starter opposite King. Penn State has three defensive ends who could start for just about any team in the country in Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton, and sophomore outside linebacker Abdul Carter is one of the best young defensive players in the country, showing off some Micah Parsons-like attributes at times.

Manny Diaz has as complete of a Penn State defense as I’ve seen in my 14th season covering the team. The only real issues they’ve had — and this is really nitpicking — is the occasional drive where they’ve given up a few too many rushing yards and have had some shoddy tackling. It happened on the opening drive against Illinois, but the Illini had no points to show for it and ended up finishing with 62 rushing yards. So yes, they’ve been that dominant.

Scott, what do you think we’ll be writing about this game on Sunday? There have been some remarkable moments between these two teams. Whether it’s the White Out, Kinnick Stadium at night, Saquon Barkley waving to Iowa fans, Adrian Clayborn silencing Beaver Stadium or the infamous 6-4 game, this series has rarely lacked drama. Are we getting a dramatic ending this time, too?

Iowa celebrated a dramatic comeback win in the last meeting in 2021. (Joseph Cress / USA Today)

Dochterman: Yes, I think we’ll get something newsworthy off Saturday night. It could be a last-second Penn State touchdown to just twist the knife into Iowa following an impressive win. Or it could be a classic Kirk Ferentz roll-in-the-mud fistfight with a last-second field goal. Both of these teams are going to get tested and it will pay off in the big picture. I think it’s a more important game for Penn State because of what’s on the horizon. Iowa just has to win its neighborhood scraps to get to Indianapolis.

But one thing’s for sure: There’s nothing ho-hum about this series, which I think is awesome. I lean toward Penn State winning this game. I know there’s a fervor for revenge here, but I think it will be a four-quarter fistfight. What say you, Audrey?

Snyder: I think Penn State’s offense — while still young — might just be too powerful. What we’ve yet to see this season is either Nicholas Singleton or Kaytron Allen rip off a long run. It feels like they’re overdue for that. The other detail that could make this more interesting is the early weather forecasts that I’ve been looking at. This might be a rainy, messy, sloppy, peak Big Ten football game. Penn State has two healthy backs built for this. I’m predicting little drama by the fourth quarter and Penn State winning 24-14. What’s your final score?

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Iowa players confident for top-25 showdown

Dochterman: Two players I haven’t discussed yet are quarterback Cade McNamara and tight end Erick All, who had a pretty dramatic touchdown at Beaver Stadium while they were at Michigan two years ago. Those two will be critical to whether or not Iowa remains in the game. I thought all along Penn State was the better team, but the Iowa players’ outward confidence on Tuesday had me revisiting those projections. I’m still going with the Nittany Lions, 23-16, but the weather just might be the evener that Iowa needs to pull off a shocker.

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Last question from me, Audrey. What’s the over-under on “Seven Nation Army” and Zombie Nation renditions on Saturday night? I’m starting at 50.5.

Snyder: Hit the over on that one! I’ve actually spent time this week tracking down the German DJ whose hit song “Kernkraft 400” is beloved around here. There’s a pretty wild backstory to how Penn State’s stadium anthem came to be, and I look forward to sharing that story on Friday as the build-up to Iowa-Penn State continues.

(Top photo of Kirk Ferentz and James Franklin: Jeffrey Becker / USA Today)

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