The Athletic has live coverage of NFL Week 3 featuring Jets vs Patriots
The New England Patriots’ twice-a-year punching bag is arriving at a good time.
The Patriots are in need of a get-right game. So who better to play than the New York Jets, a team they have beaten 14 consecutive times, including seven straight at MetLife Stadium?
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A game once billed as a high-profile matchup between Aaron Rodgers and Bill Belichick has been dulled a bit, as it now pits Zach Wilson against an 0-2 Patriots team.
But there’s still a lot on the line. The Patriots need to get their offense on track after a slow start. The defense needs to show it can bully an inferior opponent after two games against elite talent. The coaching staff needs to show it can execute a successful game plan.
So, unlike many of the last 14 meetings between these teams, this might not be an easy one for the Patriots. The Jets still have a good defense. Their receivers and running backs are talented.
Win and the Patriots can tell themselves their slow start is behind them and their playoff aspirations are still real. Lose, though, and the Patriots will hit a new low in the post-Tom Brady era.
How will it play out? Let’s break down what’s to come.
Key matchup on offense
Mac Jones against pressure.
Predictably, given the change in offensive coordinator, Jones has shown progress. His numbers, even though we’re just two games in, are considerably better. But perhaps the area where he has shown the most improvement is with his play against pressure. That’s been important with the offensive line struggling.
A year ago, Jones was the NFL’s 38th-ranked passer against pressure, according to Pro Football Focus, ahead of only Kyler Murray and Wilson. When pressured, Jones threw three touchdowns to eight interceptions. But so far this season, Jones is the sixth-best passer against pressure with one touchdown and no interceptions.
The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the league. It has been a slow start for that defense, but it still ranks ninth in pressure rate despite ranking 20th in blitz usage, according to Tru Media. So the Jets should be able to get pressure on Jones even without blitzing — and even if Trent Brown returns to the starting lineup for New England.
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The Jets defense, which ranked among the best in the league last season, has been only slightly above average through two games. It ranks eighth in yards per play allowed and 18th in success rate. The talent is there, of course, and it should be expected that the unit will rebound.
The question now is whether Jones will regress under pressure or whether he has taken meaningful steps in that department with Bill O’Brien as his offensive coordinator.
Keeping an eye on Quinnen Williams’ quickness up front.
Coach Belichick breaks down the Jets D-line. pic.twitter.com/vapVXcPVlT
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 21, 2023
Key matchup on defense
Stopping the run.
Last week, Belichick’s defense dared the Miami Dolphins to beat it without explosive plays — and they did. But this week, if you take away the run and make the Jets beat you with Wilson, it’s hard to see how New York would find success.
It doesn’t matter what stats you prefer — Wilson has been just as bad as last season. Let’s start with traditional stats. He ranks last (32nd) in the league in completion percentage, sits 23rd in yards per attempt and has thrown the most interceptions (four) in the league. How about the advanced stats? He ranks 29th in expected points added per play and 30th in completion percentage above expected.
Against Belichick, Wilson has been especially bad. In four career meetings, Wilson has completed 51 percent of his passes, averaged 173 yards per game and thrown two touchdowns against seven interceptions.
So if the game is in his hands, that’s a massive advantage for the Patriots.
But the Jets have good running backs. Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook are dynamic. The Jets’ game plan is probably to trust those two on the ground and slow down the game with long, methodical drives.
There are some stats to suggest that could work. The Patriots are allowing 4.4 yards per rush, 20th in the league. Some of that could be due to a small sample or to facing two good rushing teams in the Dolphins and the Philadelphia Eagles. But it’s worth pointing out in a game in which that phase is likely to be tested quite a bit.
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Quote of the week
“I actually talked to him on Monday and told him a similar story to me. (The) third game of my career is the first game I’m starting. I was backing up Antonio Gates, but he got hurt. I’m starting, had a pretty good game against the Indianapolis Colts. We have this two-minute drive, we’re down maybe two or three, and all we need is a field goal. I run a really good route — there was about a minute left in the game — I catch the ball, and I get down the field. I make the first guy miss, but I’m looking at the next guy and not thinking about what’s going on, and the ball gets poked out from behind. I lost the game for our team in a two-minute drive situation. That was my rookie year, third game of the year. And it really woke me up to this level and humbled me a lot. … I realized that I needed to hold on to the ball a little bit tighter. So I conveyed that to him. I’m going on my eighth year now, and I think I’ve only had one other fumble in maybe eight years.” — Hunter Henry on his message to Demario Douglas following Douglas’ first-quarter fumble against the Dolphins.
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Stat of the week
234: That’s the number of unrealized air yards (air yards minus total passing yards) from Jones this season, the third-highest total in the NFL. What does that mean? Well, it’s a sign that while the Patriots have only two completions that gained 20 yards or more (worst in the league), it’s not because they haven’t attempted deep passes. Jones is averaging 8.1 air yards per attempt, the 10th-highest number in the league. The Patriots’ downfield passing game has been virtually nonexistent, but that’s because they’re failing to execute those plays, not because they’re not running them.
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Prediction
Patriots 17, Jets 16: There are a lot of reasons to be legitimately worried about this one — even if it’s the Jets and even if Wilson is still their quarterback. But until the Patriots lose to this team, I’m going to have a hard time predicting it. So, I’m taking the Pats in an ugly, squint-and-you-can-see-progress win.
(Photo of Deatrich Wise Jr.: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
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