Breaking down the chain reaction and nearly overlooked decision that led to a gut-punch loss

MILWAUKEE, WI - AUGUST 24:  Josh Bell #55 of the Pittsburgh Pirates reacts after striking out in the fifth inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on August 24, 2018 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Players are wearing special jerseys with their nicknames on them during Players' Weekend. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)
By Rob Biertempfel
Aug 25, 2018

MILWAUKEE — The first inning was awful, a rare clunker by Joe Musgrove. The 15th inning was worse because it was a soul-crusher.

However, neither of those was the pivotal moment of the Pirates’ come-from-ahead 7-6 loss on Friday to the Milwaukee Brewers. The turning point came with two outs in the top of the fifth inning, long before the skies over Miller Park darkened to post-midnight black. It happened when Musgrove took a seat in the dugout and Josh Bell walked up to the plate.

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As so often happens in baseball, it seemed innocuous at the time. Yet, it set in motion a chain of events that culminated in one of the Pirates’ most dismal setbacks of the season.

The moment was rooted in manager Clint Hurdle’s boundless optimism.

During his pregame media scrum Hurdle explained his thought process in shuffling the lineup, hoping to gain some sort of traction heading into the final six weeks of the season.

“We want to win games,” Hurdle said. “I won’t lose sight of that, for sure.”

As Hurdle spoke, the Pirates were 11 games out of first place in the NL Central and 7 1/2 game out of a wild-card spot. A local reporter leaned forward in his chair. Did Hurdle still believe, he asked, that the Pirates have a chance?

“I don’t think it’s a gray area,” Hurdle said. “I think we’re in the race until we’re (mathematically) out of the race. I’ve been around too long and I’ve seen too many things happen. I’ve been involved in a crazy comeback (with Colorado) and have seen many crazy comebacks. I just watched the St. Louis Cardinals rip off a number of games that nobody saw coming. Maybe they did. It starts with a belief. If you don’t have a belief, it doesn’t have a very good chance of happening. So, I’m going to be the first believer.”

About three hours later, Hurdle’s faith was tested when Musgrove tossed the worst inning of his 15 starts with the Pirates. After two pitches, the Brewers were up 2-0. They got two more runs before the inning ended and the crowd of 32,694 was rocking.

“That’s one of the prices you pay for being a guy who’s in the (strike) zone so much,” Musgrove said. “I’ve got to be quality with my first pitches. Guys were ready to swing right out of the gate, with as many first-pitch strikes I’ve been throwing lately.”

In his career, Musgrove has pitched just one inning that was worse — a six-run wipeout against the Seattle Mariners on June 23, 2017, when Musgrove was pitching for the Houston Astros.

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Over Musgrove’s first 14 starts this season, batters barreled only 4.1 percent of his pitches they put in play. That ranked Musgrove among the top 4 percent of pitchers in the National League.

On Friday, two of Musgrove’s first 10 balls in play were barreled. The two-run homers by Christian Yelich (107.7 mph exit velocity) and Mike Moustakas (102.6 mph exit velocity) traveled a combined 817 feet. Ryan Braun barreled a cutter in the fourth, but center fielder Starling Marte caught up to it on the warning track.

“I just think they were ready to swing,” Musgrove said.

Joe Musgrove went four innings, allowed four runs on six hits, walked none and struck out four on Friday. (Photo credit: Credit: Jeff Hanisch/USA TODAY Sports)

Hurdle tinkered with the bottom of the lineup on Wednesday and the Pirates wound up 2-1 losers against the Atlanta Braves. For the series opener against the Brewers, he revamped the top of the order to face left-hander Wade Miley.

“Shaking it up, but there’s some other reasons for it,” Hurdle said.

Corey Dickerson, who’s already set a career high with 102 games played, got a breather. He was replaced in the leadoff spot by Adam Frazier. Marte dropped from second to sixth.

A week earlier, Hurdle talked at length about his reluctance to break up the trio of Dickerson, Marte and Gregory Polanco at the top of the order. Push came to shove, though, when the Pirates scored two runs earlier this week during the Braves’ three-game sweep.

Hurdle said he’s given “some thought about finding a way to disconnect Dickerson, Marte and Polanco because I think there are times when three can roll and it can be contagious. And when they don’t roll, maybe it puts more pressure on the next guy. So, we’ll separate them a little bit. Frazier has shown up with some good numbers against left-handed pitching when he’s started. So we just moved some guys around. A different look.”

Elias Diaz was in the 2 hole for just the third time in his career. He’s the 11th Pirates player to fill the spot in 2018. Maybe Diaz should have gotten a shot here sooner — he’s slashing .352/.370/.592 against lefties.

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“If you want to jump on the analytic bandwagon, it checks all the boxes,” Hurdle said. “All his numbers against left-handed pitching slot him in the 2 spot. This could give him one more at-bat in the game. Analytically, it makes sense. We’ve got nothing to lose. We’ve tried some things and haven’t gotten the results we wanted, so we’re trying some new things.”

Shaken and stirred, the lineup actually showed signs of life. In the second inning, Marte was nicked by a pitch, Kevin Newman doubled to left for his first big league hit and Frazier ripped a two-run double.

Trailing 4-2 in the fifth, the Pirates loaded the bases with two outs and the pitcher’s spot due up. Musgrove had retired 10 of the next 12 batters after Moustakas’ homer and had thrown just 61 pitches.

Hurdle told Musgrove he was done and motioned for Bell to pinch-hit. “It’s a tough (decision),” Hurdle admitted later. Musgrove was surprised to be yanked so early.

“I thought Miley was working a lot harder than I was,” Musgrove said. “He had traffic all night. We weren’t struggling to put ourselves in (potential scoring) situations and I thought I was getting stronger as the game was going. Four through seven have been my strongest innings throughout my career, but especially these last couple of starts. I expected to be able to hit for myself and go back out there to give us six or seven innings. But that’s not my decision. The opportunity was there, so we went for the runs.”

Bell struck out swinging.

Rich Rodriguez, Edgar Santana and Keone Kela combined to toss four scoreless innings. The Pirates got a run in the sixth and another in the ninth to tie it at 6.  Closer Felipe Vázquez and long reliever Steven Brault, who threw a season-high 58 pitches, kept things in check and moved the game to the 15th.

The Pirates scored twice in the top of the 15th. The only unused relievers were Kyle Crick, who’s been solid the past few weeks, and Clay Holmes, who was lugging a 6.88 ERA.

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Hurdle called on Holmes to preserve the two-run lead. Why not Crick?

“We wanted to stay away from him,” Hurdle said. “He wasn’t available.”

On Monday, Crick was stuck in the back by a line drive. Two days later, his back flared up on him while was pitching against the Braves. Crick gave up a run on a hit and two walks, and took the loss.

So it came down to Holmes. He got a quick first out, walked two batters, threw a wild pitch, then struck out Ryan Braun. The Brewers’ bench was depleted, so all Holmes needed to do was retire relief pitcher Jordan Lyles.

Lyles walked on five pitches.

“You know you have the pitcher up and you’re trying to make some pitches,” Holmes said. “Next thing you know, it’s 2-0, then 3-0. Instead of focusing on getting the guy out, you’re just trying to throw a strike. That’s never a good mindset to be in.”

Erik Kratz bounced a two-run single up the middle. Orlando Arcia, who went into the game batting .214, won it by lashing an RBI single to right field.

What if Musgrove had taken that two-out at-bat in the fifth? He could have shaved at least two innings off the bullpen’s load. Hurdle’s options in the 15th could have been much different — a more experienced, more confident reliever could have closed out the game.

Instead, Holmes was the only guy left in the pen as the game dragged on. A long, lonely night for the rookie?

“Yeah,” Holmes said. “I think it was for everybody.”

(Top photo credit: Dylan Bell/Getty Images)

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