Cowboys vs. Patriots, Week 4 matchup: 5 questions with a prediction

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - SEPTEMBER 24: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys is flushed from the pocket by pressure from Victor Dimukeje #52 of the Arizona Cardinals in the third quarter of a game at State Farm Stadium on September 24, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Photo by Mike Christy/Getty Images)
By Jon Machota and Saad Yousuf
Sep 29, 2023

Well, there’s no way around it: The Dallas Cowboys left a lot to be desired last week at Arizona.

The heavily favored Cowboys fell behind by double-digits in the first half and tried to play catch-up the rest of the way and never quite could.

This week, the Cowboys return to AT&T Stadium where they meet the New England Patriots (1-2). New England is coming off its first win of the season, a 15-10 win against the New York Jets, who lost to the Patriots for the 15th consecutive time.

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We asked The Athletic’s Cowboys reporters their thoughts on Dallas and this week’s matchup. Here’s what they said:

1. How can the Cowboys turn last week’s loss to the Cardinals into a positive?

Machota: That shouldn’t be difficult considering how poorly they played in Arizona. That loss reminded me of two others, last season in Week 18 at Washington (26-6) and two seasons ago against Denver (30-16). The Cowboys responded to the Broncos’ loss by defeating the Falcons, 43-3, the following week. They responded to the Commanders’ loss by defeating the Buccaneers in Tampa, 31-14, in the wild-card round. The Cowboys have also won eight of their last nine following a loss, dating back to 2021. If that stunning performance turns into some type of wake-up call and Dallas’ defense never plays that poorly again, maybe that loss will end up being a positive. I’m not sure why they would need a wake-up call in Week 3, but that’s all I got for you. I’m still struggling to understand how that could happen in the first place.

Yousuf: Only three weeks into the season, the Cowboys shouldn’t have needed a “wake-up call,” as DeMarcus Lawrence called it after the Cardinals’ game. The fallout of that performance has been largely mental, meaning the Cowboys have expressed how it sharpened their focus and poked a bear within them.

As has been the case so often for nearly three decades, the Cowboys are built on a lot of potential. The Cowboys have to learn how to be consistent and bring their quality game every week. If there is a time to have that performance to learn from, early on is best. Bill Belichick’s Patriots have been the gold standard of success the past two decades. In his time in New England, Belichick has a 64 percent winning percentage in September. That shoots up to above 70 percent in each of October, November and December. With the Patriots in town this weekend, it’s a reminder that the goal is to get better as the season progresses. The Cowboys can do that but it’s going to take not having a repeat of their performance Sunday as the calendar flips.

2. The Patriots are 1-2, but lost a couple of one-score games to the Eagles and Dolphins. What is the key to the Cowboys rebounding with a win?

Machota: Play like the dominating defense they’re capable of being. Elite defenses are supposed to travel. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn mentioned that to his group this week. “And we didn’t travel,” Cowboys safety Jayron Kearse said. “If we play our football, we’re going to stop anything. It’s not really about what New England does. We hope they turn that tape on and think that’s the same thing they’re getting. They’re not getting anything close to that.” The red zone offense is a concern, but some growing pains were expected early with a new offensive play caller. It was also expected that the defense would fly around and make plays, regardless of the opponent. If they take care of that Sunday, the Cowboys should win.

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Yousuf: Of the two glaring issues we’ve dissected at length — red zone offense and run defense — it’s the defensive one that holds the edge in being the key this week. The Patriots boast a strong running back tandem in Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott and have an underwhelming passing game led by Mac Jones. If the Cowboys can bottle up the run game, not only does it allow them to ride the strength of their team, which is the pass rush, but it puts the onus on Jones to win the game through the air. The run defense should have a smoother time this week than it did against the Cardinals because Jones is nowhere near the rushing threat that Joshua Dobbs was.

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3. The Cowboys’ red zone issues last week are well documented. Who do you think emerges as their go-to player in the red zone?

Machota: I don’t think it has to be any one player. There are enough weapons — Michael Gallup, Brandin Cooks, Tony Pollard, Jake Ferguson — to spread it around and have success. But in a hypothetical scenario where it’s third or fourth down and the opposing defense has everyone covered, the Cowboys have to give that opportunity to CeeDee Lamb. He’s their most talented offensive weapon. The Patriots will likely do everything they can to limit Lamb, but that’s the go-to player. It’s surprising that he’s without a touchdown catch through the first three games. He’s too talented for that to happen.

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Yousuf: For the long haul, I expect Lamb to become the go-to player in the red zone. Against the Cardinals, Lamb was targeted in the passing game and involved in the rushing game in the red zone. He is their best playmaker. He did not shy away from wanting to be an answer to the early red zone struggles.

“Let me touch the rock and we’re going to get in the end zone,” Lamb said. “I like (being involved in different ways). It shows my versatility in this game and shows the different ways of getting me the ball. It does not go unnoticed. I appreciate each and every attempt. I’ll always want more.”

Whether it’s creative run game designs, quick screens, jump balls or anything else, Lamb has the potential to be a solution in the red zone. However, against the Patriots in particular, Ferguson should be a red zone candidate. Belichick has a reputation of keying on the opposing team’s best player, which would be Lamb and perhaps Pollard, which should create opportunities for others. Ferguson should look to capitalize.

CeeDee Lamb is averaging 14.4 yards on his 19 receptions this season. (Tim Heitman / USA Today)

4. What grade do you give Dak Prescott through the first three weeks?

Machota: I’d give him a B. It’s tough to be too critical of the first two games because the Cowboys outscored their opponents, 70-10. But Sunday in Arizona, he needed to be better. The last interception was a poor decision. But it was also his only turnover through three games. I don’t see how anyone could give a higher grade with the red zone issues and coming off that inexcusable loss. And Prescott has to shoulder some of the responsibility for none of his wide receivers having a touchdown catch through three games.

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Yousuf: B-minus. One of the big talking points surrounding Prescott all offseason was reducing the career-high 15 interceptions he had last season. So far, Prescott has fared well, throwing just one interception through three games.

On the flip side, that one interception is part of the biggest issue this season — the red zone offense. A big part of Prescott’s responsibility is to come through in the biggest moments, which includes the red zone and also picking up the Cowboys’ defense it has an off day, as it did in Arizona. That didn’t happen.

The most damning part of Prescott’s performance, though, is that no wide receiver has caught a touchdown pass, leaving the Cowboys as the only team in the NFL with that distinction. The Cowboys’ top four of Lamb, Cooks, Gallup and Jalen Tolbert is too talented to have not found the end zone through three games.

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Prediction?

Machota: Belichick might be the greatest coach in NFL history. He’ll have a plan that will make things difficult on the Cowboys’ offense. However, I see the Dallas defense bouncing back with a dominant showing. NFC Defensive Player of the Month Micah Parsons will look much more like the player we saw the first two weeks as the defense records at least four sacks and multiple takeaways. Cowboys 27, Patriots 14.

Yousuf: This feels like a game the defense gets back on track but the offense continues to lag, especially in the red zone. But the defense returning to form should allow a collection of field goals to be enough. Cowboys 19, Patriots 6.

(Top photo of Dak Prescott: Mike Christy / Getty Images)


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