By Tim Cato, William Guillory and Kelly Iko
The NBA’s Southwest Division endured a disappointing 2022-23 season.
The Memphis Grizzlies were the only Southwest team to reach the Western Conference playoffs, and their 51-win campaign was soured by Ja Morant’s off-court issues.
Zion Williamson appeared in only 29 games for the New Orleans Pelicans, who lost their lone Play-In game. Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving never coalesced after Irving’s early February trade to the Dallas Mavericks.
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The Houston Rockets’ rebuilding effort stagnated, resulting in the firing of their coach, Stephen Silas. And the San Antonio Spurs were awful, but their struggles enabled them to win the NBA Draft Lottery, allowing them to draft Victor Wembanyama.
The Southwest has a chance for redemption in the season ahead. Every team made at least one intriguing offseason move or addition. To break down the division’s offseason and look ahead to the 2023-24 regular season, The Athletic has assembled three writers who have extensive experience covering the division: Tim Cato, William Guillory and Kelly Iko.
OTHER DIVISION PREVIEWS: Atlantic | Central | Southeast | Northwest| Pacific
What was the best offseason move — a trade, a free-agent signing, firing or hiring — within the division?
Tim Cato: To me, this division’s offseason was defined by each team’s draft nights. It’s obvious that Wembanyama was the most talented addition to any of these five teams. But Houston also had a successful draft, selecting Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore, and Dallas, thanks to two shrewd trades, acquired two rookies — Dereck Lively II and Olivier-Maxence Prosper — despite entering the night with only one pick. Lively and Prosper have been impressive enough in training camp that they may contribute immediately in larger roles than the team anticipated.
If we’re not counting the draft, the division’s best move was the Grant Williams sign-and-trade. He’s a good, needed addition for the Mavericks. But the Spurs, who participated in the deal as a third team for salary purposes, might have ended up with the best asset: a 2030 first-round pick swap with Dallas.
Will Guillory: It might be too obvious an answer, but Wembanyama going to the Spurs has to be the choice here. There’s nothing more valuable in the NBA than superstar talent, and Wembanyama has a legit shot at turning into one at some point in his career. Considering how much he’ll be able to impact the game on both ends, it’s hard to say any other moves made by teams in the Southwest come close.
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I do think Marcus Smart can bring some valuable playoff experience and secondary ballhandling that Memphis will need once Morant comes back from suspension. Williams also brings some playoff experience and defensive tenacity that Dallas needed after a disastrous season. I’m just not quite sold on him being that much of a difference-maker.
Ime Udoka is a name who should be mentioned here as well. Houston looked like an AAU team that didn’t get along for much of last season. If Udoka can bring some order and accountability to that locker room, it’ll make a massive difference.
Kelly Iko: I really like how the Mavericks addressed their center depth by adding Williams and Richaun Holmes, but I think Houston’s pairing of Fred VanVleet with Udoka is the best piece of business in the division. It can’t be understated the negative impact offensive chaos can have on young players’ development. There’s nothing more important to a rebuilding franchise than having a stabilizing presence on the floor and on the sidelines, and since the departures of James Harden and Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets have lacked in both departments. Houston brought in an experienced, talented floor general and a legitimate head coach. Can’t ask for more than that.
Which Southwest Division offseason move has the strongest potential to backfire?
Cato: I understand why the Grizzlies wanted Smart, and that Smart’s impact on the court can’t fully be defined by his inefficient offensive numbers. But I’m just not sure he’s the right move for a team that needed to improve its half-court offense. Memphis remains a trade away from being a serious contender, and now the team has less ammunition to make that trade when the opportunity comes.
Guillory: Houston’s desire to throw incredible amounts of money at veterans to take away minutes from its young core still doesn’t make any sense to me. I understand all the good things VanVleet and Dillon Brooks can bring to a team that needs to establish a winning culture. Jeff Green and Jock Landale were also a couple sneaky good additions. But if Houston is going to turn into a winning squad, it has to start with the development of Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson and the rest of the young guys on the roster. Why not give those guys a chance to develop as leaders of the franchise with a real coach? Instead, they look like a team desperate to reach the play-in tournament, which is the last place any organization should be.
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Iko: I don’t agree with the online assumption that there’s a ton of risk associated with the Brooks signing in Houston because of how badly the Rockets needed toughness and defensive versatility. That said, although I really like the Williams addition in Dallas, are we sure he’ll be able to carve out a significant role on both ends of the floor?
A year ago, we all envisioned a hand-in-glove pairing between Dončić and Christian Wood. That didn’t happen. Is Williams, for all he brings to the table — tough defense, floor spacing and quality screen-setting — better equipped to play alongside Dončić than, say, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell? Williams was a healthy scratch from Joe Mazzulla’s rotation on more than one occasion last season, and Dallas goes through big men like dirty socks. Can Williams rise above the committee approach?
Which Southwest player is most likely to have a breakout season?
Cato: Does Wembanyama count? No? I’m going with his teammate Devin Vassell, then, who began his breakout last season in the 38 games he played while averaging almost 19 points per game. San Antonio has an intriguing collection of really promising youngsters, but Vassell stands out as the one with true star potential alongside Wembanyama.
Guillory: I’m really mad Tim went with Vassell because that was going to be my answer. I think he’s going to be great this year.
My second choice would probably be Smith. Having a coach like Udoka there to hold him accountable and demand the most out of him on the defensive end will be the best thing that’s ever happened to him. Houston did a terrible job of putting Smith in the best situation to make the most of his talents last season. This year, Smith will have a foundation around him that’s much more conducive to a young player developing in the right ways.
Iko: I’m going to go with Jaren Jackson Jr. Defensively, it’s already well documented what he’s capable of on a nightly basis. But without Morant taking the lion’s share of touches for at least the first 25 games of the season, Jackson has to shoulder more scoring responsibility in an elevated usage role. His career is trending upwards following his first All-Star selection last season, Defensive Player of the Year selection and Team USA invitation.
Heading into the season, which player, coach or executive in the division has the most to prove?
Cato: Jason Kidd. Dallas has to win now, and Kidd’s trajectory — an impressive first season with a reborn defense that wilted in an underachieving second year — looks suspiciously similar to his failed tenure in Milwaukee. The Mavericks remain one move away from being considered as true title contenders, but they have less time and fewer resources to make that move than other teams in this division — and they cannot repeat last year’s embarrassing collapse that caused them to miss the postseason entirely.
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Guillory: Zion Williamson. As I mentioned earlier, nothing matters more in this league than superstars. Zion has proven he’s one of the most dominant offensive talents in the league when he plays. Unfortunately, he’s spent more time in his career on the injury list than on the court. If he can play 60-plus games this year and help push the Pelicans back to the playoffs, it’ll be a game-changer for his career and for that franchise. If he has another year filled with leg injuries and chaos away from the court, New Orleans will have to make some tough decisions about the direction of the franchise next summer.
Iko: Rafael Stone. It’s no question that Houston has endured a rough three-year stretch in its post-Harden era, but the Rockets have been able to reshape their asset cupboard and add some exciting young talent along the way. No general manager bats 1.000, and having struck out on first-round names like TyTy Washington Jr. and Usman Garuba is a testament to that. But the Rockets spent money this summer upgrading their roster and coaching staff — a lot of it. Ownership has declared this period “Phase 2,” which is supposed to align with a return to winning ways and the postseason. There has to be substantial improvement from last season’s 22-win disaster — and Stone knows it.
Which team will win the regular-season Southwest title? Which team will finish as the runner-up?
Cato: Because of Morant’s suspension, I have the Mavericks finishing slightly ahead of the Grizzlies. Dončić is the division’s best player, and his partnership with Irving will make Dallas one of the league’s best offenses this season. But those two are going to need to be available for 70-plus games for this to work, and there are many ways this could crash and burn — which would put some serious attention onto Dončić’s future in Dallas.
Guillory: I want to take a leap and just predict the Pelicans putting it all together with Zion, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum. But the absence of Trey Murphy III for the first month or so of the season will have a huge impact on New Orleans and what it likes to do on offense. I’ll go the safe route and say Memphis will do enough to keep the ship afloat until Morant comes back and predict the Grizzlies will finish first in the division.
I have the Pelicans coming in second. Dallas has two incredible offensive talents in Dončić’ and Irving. I just don’t believe the Mavericks have done enough to solve some of the defensive issues that crushed them last season. Plus, we can never overlook the Kyrie chaos factor and how it can blow up the Mavs’ season at any moment.
Iko: Much of this prediction rests on two huge health factors for New Orleans — Williamson’s staying power and Murphy’s recovery — but I think a full training camp for Dončić and Irving should give the Mavericks a much-needed boost in the early season standings. I have Dallas finishing at the top of the division with the Pelicans right on their heels. I think the Grizzlies are going to experience some regression, especially without Brooks manning the wings defensively, Morant for the first quarter of the year and the steadiness of Tyus Jones.
(Top photo of Zion Williamson and Ja Morant: Petre Thomas / USA Today)