Coming off a swarming suffocation of the Dallas Cowboys, it’s a fitting week for the San Francisco 49ers to add Randy Gregory to their defensive rotation.
“He’s an $80 million defensive end who we got for a bargain,” 49ers edge rusher Nick Bosa said of Gregory, who’s joined the team after a trade with the Denver Broncos and will wear No. 5. “So it could get even better for us.”
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It’ll have to get even better for the 49ers if they are to officially reclaim the title of NFL’s No. 1 defense. That’s because their next opponent, the Cleveland Browns, owns that stake through five games this season.
Cleveland’s defense has been exceptional, ranking No. 1 in expected points added (EPA) by a wide margin. At 0.33 EPA per play, the Browns are well ahead of the No. 2 New Orleans Saints and No. 5 49ers, who are 0.19 and 0.13 EPA per play. Some regression from Cleveland can be expected — the 49ers finished last season as the NFL’s No. 1-ranked defense at 0.11 EPA per play, for reference — and perhaps that’ll begin this Sunday when San Francisco’s hard-charging offense comes to town.
In Week 5, to the great satisfaction of the 49ers defense, the team’s offense shredded the Cowboys defense, which had come into the game ranked No. 1 by many metrics. Dallas ceded the top spot to the Browns, and now the 49ers would like to reorganize the rankings for a second straight week.
They’re obviously paying attention to them and taking the order personally.
“The one that broke me down was that they’re the No. 1 defense,” 49ers cornerback Deommodore Lenoir said after the win over the Cowboys. “That’s crazy. We just had to do a little realignment.”
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The Cowboys dropped from No. 1 to No. 5 in points allowed per game and from No. 1 to No. 8 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) after the 49ers were through with them. There’s a 70 percent chance of rain for Sunday’s game in Cleveland. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is dealing with a shoulder injury. If he can’t play, Cleveland’s No. 26-ranked offense will reportedly start P.J. Walker instead of rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who threw three interceptions in his first career start.
The entire situation suggests that a big opportunity is coming for the 49ers defense, which is ranked No. 1 in points allowed but No. 5 in EPA/play (a stat that is less buoyed by the team’s excellent offense), to continue its climb up the charts. The 49ers believe the success against Dallas shows their defense can enter another gear. They’ve anticipated it might take some time to reach full throttle under new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks, who’s imprinting more complex coverage combinations on the back end.
The most recent outing featured a markedly higher rate of press-man coverage from the 49ers, who might have caught the Cowboys flat-footed after they had showcased significantly softer zone coverages over the first four games of the season.
“Steve’s such a good coordinator and he has been doing this for so long that Steve knows what he’s doing,” coach Kyle Shanahan said Monday. “It is more getting used to our guys and how to do what he loves doing with our group. And that’s always a challenge for our coordinators. Each year is different. It is for me. It is for him because what you want to do depends on how your players are. Steve being the new guy here, each game, I think he picks up on that more and more.
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“I’ve loved how he’s been. I think each game he gets stronger and better at it, and not just better at it, but just how to use our scheme with our guys. He’s mixed up a ton of stuff and thought we did a little bit more man (coverage against the Cowboys). The way the secondary was ready, that starts with him and (defensive backs coach Daniel) Bullocks because that’s the area that they focus on the most. Those guys were so aggressive in their coverages, which allows us to have a better pass rush and even to have that tight man coverage at the end where (Lenoir) had that slant and it ended up causing that pick with the tip. I was real impressed with their preparation and then how it looked on film.”
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The 49ers rank No. 4 in pass defense EPA. If there’s a clear area for most statistical improvement, it’s in run defense. The 49ers rank down at No. 18 in EPA allowed per rush, with most of the damage against them coming in the first half against the Los Angeles Rams and versus the Arizona Cardinals. The team has talked about executing better run blitzes and run fits and appeared to do so against the Cowboys, who managed only 57 yards on 19 carries (3 yards per rush) against the 49ers.
Continued improvement on run defense can earn the 49ers more sack opportunities, similar to how tighter coverage helped set the table for the pass rush Sunday night by encouraging Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott to hold the ball for longer than he preferred. The 49ers racked up four sacks on the night. It was a performance that boosted a sack rate that had been lagging due to the proliferation of quick-release pass attacks that have become customary against the 49ers.
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That sack rate is 6.1 percent, which ranks No. 24 despite the 49ers’ having one of the most impressive QB pressure profiles in the NFL. Cleveland, which features star edge rusher Myles Garrett, is No. 2 in the league behind only the Buffalo Bills at 10.2 percent.
That’s about where the 49ers were over the first half of 2019 when edge rusher Dee Ford was healthy and bookending Bosa all while DeForest Buckner was rushing from the inside. Now, the 49ers have finally replaced Buckner with Javon Hargrave and are ready for Gregory — who’s posted pass-rush productivity scores that have ranked among the top-10 edge rushers in each of the past three seasons — to settle into Ford’s former role.
The 49ers’ plan is to pair a supercharged pass rush with a constantly improving secondary to create more outcomes like Sunday’s.
“The sacks,” Bosa said last week, “will come.”
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His prediction came true against Dallas. Similar results can have the 49ers challenging the Browns for the title of the league’s top defense, so it’s fitting they’ll get an up-close look at Cleveland this weekend.
(Top photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
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