Chicago Cubs officials always try to choose their words carefully. Both chairman Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer left almost no wiggle room in their end-of-season statements about Kyle Hendricks. The last player standing from the 2016 World Series team will be back for his 11th season at Wrigley Field.
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The Cubs hold a $16.5 million option on Hendricks’ contract, which was a rare extension among that championship group of players. At this time last year, nobody knew when Hendricks would be healthy enough to pitch again or if he would even be effective. It is both an impressive achievement that the organization helped Hendricks reboot his career and a massive disappointment that the Cubs failed to capitalize on that bounce-back season and qualify for the playoffs.
To get back to October baseball, the Cubs want someone who knows what it’s like to pitch into November.
Ricketts: “One of the great stories of the summer was his return to being as effective as — not quite 2016 Kyle Hendricks — but still a very effective starting pitcher. It’ll be Jed’s decision on what to do with Kyle’s contract. But at this point, I would see him coming back.”
Hoyer: “He’s been one of my favorite Cubs players to be around since we got here. It’s hard to imagine a better teammate. Someone who redefines ‘low maintenance.’ He does whatever the team needs. It’s just a joy to have him around. Certainly, we want to keep him as a Cub for next year and beyond.”
Hendricks: “We’ve had such a good relationship the whole time I’ve been here. I really respect the heck out of them. I appreciate everything they’ve given me, all the opportunities they’ve given me. I have full trust in whatever is supposed to happen, will happen.”
Kyle Hendricks on his future in Chicago headed into the offseason. pic.twitter.com/Uf9tPg15e1
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) October 2, 2023
The operating assumption is that the one-year option will happen for Hendricks, who posted a 3.74 ERA in 24 starts and will be 34 next season. Another expectation is that Marcus Stroman, 32, will choose to take a $21 million salary next year rather than opt out of his contract to explore free agency after an injury-plagued second half. That is a good place to start.
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Of course, the Cubs always want more youth, impact and upside. The Cubs will evaluate their options with this upcoming class of free-agent pitchers and look for the right deals. But the potential depth chart allows the Cubs to focus on different areas, prioritizing Cody Bellinger and other offensive upgrades as well as more skill and know-how in the bullpen. This is a solid foundation for an experienced, versatile rotation that can handle a 162-game schedule:
Kyle Hendricks
Marcus Stroman
There are other assumptions built into these projections: The Cubs need Steele’s Cy Young Award-caliber performance to be the continuation of his ascent and not a one-off season. After an up-and-down year, Smyly, 34, will presumably not use the opt-out clause in his contract and return to a team that knows him well. Assad and Wesneski can also move between the rotation and the bullpen, though Assad thrived in that hybrid role while Wesneski struggled.
If healthy — and that is always the qualifier with pitching prospects — Brown likely would have made his major-league debut this year and shown why the Cubs targeted him in the David Robertson trade with the Philadelphia Phillies. Wicks, a first-round selection in the 2021 draft, made seven starts down the stretch and impressed the team with his composure. Horton, the No. 7 pick in the 2022 draft, has already reached the Double-A level, meaning he’s on track to possibly make it to Wrigley Field next year.
It’s important to create a runway and opportunities for these young pitchers. Going forward with one-year commitments to Hendricks and Stroman is a more flexible plan and a less daunting task than what St. Louis Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak described to reporters in August: “Realistically, we know we have to add three starters this offseason.”
The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers also figure to be heavily involved in the market for starting pitchers after those two teams combined to win 204 games during the regular season and only one playoff game. The New York Mets moved on from Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer at the trade deadline. The San Francisco Giants can’t afford to not make a splash.
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Hendricks and Stroman won’t have to go through the difficult adjustment period that Taillon dealt with at the beginning of his four-year, $68 million contract. The Cubs are expecting to see the confident version of Taillon who pitched well after the All-Star break (3.70 ERA) and managed to finish second on the team in innings pitched (154 1/3), a credit to his attitude and work ethic.
Again, this is not a signal that the Cubs are thinking small or scaling back this winter. Hoyer visited Japan in September to scout a coming wave of international talent. Star power is needed in the lineup to boost a solid group of two-way players that includes Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ. Finishing with 83 wins when two National League teams with 84 wins made the playoffs should provide even more motivation to go big.
The Cubs simply have a larger pool of pitching talent in their organization right now than in past years. That progress gives Craig Breslow even more credibility as he pursues a top job with the Boston Red Sox. That volume allows the Cubs to be creative and opportunistic in trades and negotiations with free agents rather than approaching it with a sense of desperation.
Stroman put up his numbers in uneven ways, but his first two seasons in Chicago suggest he will finish next year with around 25 starts, 140 innings and a 3.70 ERA. The Cubs are also well-equipped to help draw out a good performance in a contract year. Before injuries derailed him, Stroman repeatedly raved about the coaching staff and the atmosphere at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs never would have been in position to make a second-half run if Stroman hadn’t been so dominant (9-4, 2.28 ERA) heading into the London Series. The Cubs went on a hot streak and quieted the trade-deadline rumors while Stroman struggled to regain his mechanics, stay healthy and build up again as a starter.
“Certainly a tale of two seasons,” Hoyer said. “He was an All-Star in the first half and a candidate to start the game at that point. Post-London, he never really got it back on track. He struggled in July and then was hurt in August. I give him a lot of credit for working hard and trying to come back. But he never quite got back to where it was. I think that’s the only way to look at his season. He was really crucial for us in the first half, and then we certainly could have used him in the second half. But he was injured and unable to help us.
“As far as going forward, he and his agent have a decision to make. We’ll find out after the World Series what that is. But if he chooses to come back, certainly the second half of 2022 and the first half of this year were exceptionally good. He’s a really good pitcher. As we’ve learned, you can never have enough good pitching.”
(Top photo of Kyle Hendricks: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
