It’s time. Basketball now matters.
After a preseason slate that saw both the highs and lows of a rebuilding program trying to figure itself out, the Detroit Pistons begin a pivotal season this Wednesday in Miami against the defending Eastern Conference champions. Welcome back.
This is the season Detroit needs to truly find out if the “restoration” is on the right track. Can it repurpose some of the optimism it built up two years ago but lost last season when Cade Cunningham missed pretty much the entire season and the team won a league-worst 17 games? Is Cunningham the No. 1 option to build around? Do the Pistons have the pieces in-house to be a competent defense? A lot of questions need answering this season.
What’s most fascinating about this Detroit team currently is that everything we saw this preseason, from a team perspective, could absolutely mean nothing. Bojan Bogdanović didn’t log a single second as he nursed a calf injury. Monté Morris has been dealing with a lower back issue and also didn’t play in the preseason. Alec Burks wasn’t featured as heavily as he’ll likely be during the regular season. Isaiah Livers, who appears to be in the plans of head coach Monty Williams, may be back from a Grade 3 ankle sprain within the next couple of weeks. These four players — a few of whom could realistically be starters — all are expected to fit somewhere in Williams’ likely 10-man rotation.
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So, yeah, you might need to throw most of what you just watched out of the window.
With all that said, the beginning of a new season means it’s time for predictions. Some will be correct. Most will not. Let’s only remember the ones that make me look smart.
Cade Cunningham will flirt with an All-Star nod
Cunningham, who returned to NBA action this preseason after missing nearly a year due to shin surgery, didn’t have a blow-you-away preseason. There were moments but, as a whole, he looked like someone who was coming back from a year off basketball and was trying to find a rhythm. That was to be excepted.
Yet, I still very much believe Cunningham has the ability to be the No. 1 option on a good basketball team, and I think we start seeing consistent signs of that this season. The addition of rookie Ausar Thompson into the starting lineup will allow Cunningham to save some energy defensively and to be better conditioned to carry a heavy load on offense as the primary creator. Furthermore, playing alongside Thompson, as well as Jaden Ivey, will get Cunningham more off-ball reps and more opportunities to attack a moving defense.
As someone who has watched every second of Cunningham’s playing career up close and personal, the talent is obvious. There have been games in which he’s been the best or second-best player on a court that features an All-Star or two. Couple that with the fact that he’s healthy, and I just find it hard to believe that Cunningham doesn’t start to inch his way toward being a top-25 player in this league once he finds his rhythm.
If you’re asking for a basic stat line, I’ll pencil in Cunningham for 24 points, six assists and six rebounds per game. Ultimately, I think he misses out on an All-Star nod because Detroit’s record will have him overlooked, and the Eastern Conference is so stacked with guards.
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However, I think everything you want to see from Cunningham as it pertains to his future as a franchise-changing player shows itself this season.
Cunningham will shoot 36 percent or better from 3
Might as well knock out all of the Cunningham stuff while we’re on the subject.
Cunningham shot 40 percent from 3 in his lone college season, but that clip hasn’t yet translated to NBA range. I think that changes this year. The shooting form is good. He’s emphasized it for the last year while out. He’s healthy. This is the year the long ball becomes a threat for him.
Through three preseason games, Cunningham did convert on five of his 11 3-point attempts. He didn’t shoot a ton, and I’m not sure he will anytime soon. It just hasn’t been his game to this point. I do think playing alongside Thompson, Ivey and/or Bogdanović for significant stretches will create more spot-up chances for Cunningham and, in turn, allow him to get a few more easy looks per game.
Ideally, if Cunningham can shoot 36 percent or better on four or five 3-point attempts per game, that’s a win. He’ll have no issue averaging somewhere between 22-25 points per game if that’s the case, which will make Detroit a better team and put him in consideration for an All-Star spot.
If Cunningham can up his 3-point percentage and find a way to get to the free-throw line more than he has in his career, the Pistons should make a leap, and Cunningham will ease any concerns fans may have.
Detroit will win between 30-34 games (with relatively good health to key players)
First, I do not condone gambling, and if you lose your mortgage, that’s on you!
Now, let me explain my logic. The Pistons won 17 games last year with Cunningham only playing 12 games and Bogdanović and Isaiah Stewart missing 20-plus. I can think of three or four games off the top of my head last season that Detroit lost in the final seconds because of something as simple as a poor box out or just a young team doing young things in the final moments. They were a handful of possessions away from having 21-23 wins without Cunningham. Factor in his return and replacing the likes of Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo and the Kevin Knox/R.J. Hampton duo with Morris, Joe Harris and Thompson, and the Pistons improved on both sides of the ball.
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Furthermore, I think teams such as Atlanta, Toronto, Chicago and Brooklyn could be underwhelming while teams such as Indiana, Orlando and Washington aren’t significantly better than Detroit as is, if at all.
A 13- to 17-win jump in one season isn’t easy to do, especially for a young team. But, again, I don’t think Detroit was *really* a 17-win team last season.
Lastly, while 33 or 34 wins is unlikely, it could put the Pistons in contention for the Play-In Tournament. If they improve their win total by 14 to 17 games, that means other teams will have lower win totals than they did a season ago. That’s just simple math — unless Detroit just beats up on some Western Conference teams. It took 41 wins to be postseason-eligible a season ago, but I think that number will be lower this time around in the East.
The Pistons will make a trade packaging multiple players
This is probably my boldest take so far.
Eventually, Detroit will make a big trade. It could be this season, next summer or next year’s trade deadline. I think it’s coming within the next 18 months.
As it pertains to this season, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pistons pieced together a few contracts to go after someone like, let’s say, Tobias Harris, if things remain weird in Philadelphia and the 76ers find themselves struggling out of the gate. I don’t think Detroit goes and gets an A-List player this season. I’m not sure if any will be available anytime soon. However, I could see them going after a B- or C-list target, which Harris would fall under.
Just to put a bow on this section and provide more clarity: I think it’s more likely the Pistons trade multiple contracts for one player than, say, move Killian Hayes or Marvin Bagley III for a second-round pick or something.
Ausar Thompson will make first team All-Rookie
Detroit has had at least one player on one of the NBA’s All-Rookie teams since Troy Weaver took over in 2020. Thompson will continue that tradition.
Aside from what he has shown to provide instinctually and as an athlete to the Pistons’ roster, he was a box-score stuffer in both summer league and preseason play. He’ll like be a starter from day one and will get a lot of minutes. Williams already slapped himself on the wrist this preseason for playing Thompson so much against the Suns. That’s a recipe to make an All-Rookie team.
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After averaging 14 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks per game in Las Vegas, Thompson came into the preseason and was nearly as impactful, as he averaged 11.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, one block and 0.8 steals in four games. He also covered the opposing team’s best scorer in every matchup.
Thompson is in a great situation to be honored as a top rookie by the season’s end.
Detroit finishes in the bottom 10 defensively, somewhere between 20th and 25th
I know there’s been a lot of chatter about the Pistons’ emphasis defensively, and I believe they will get better on that end. But I don’t think they’ll take a significant step forward in one season.
History suggests that young teams struggle to defend. Look at the worst defenses last year, and you’ll see that the bottom is filled with some of the NBA’s least experienced teams. If you haven’t heard, the Pistons are still a young squad.
However, if Detroit can finish 20th or 21st defensively, I’d chalk that up as a win. The Pistons finished 27th a season ago and were either 29th or 30th for the majority of the year.
There are just too many questions about individuals on that end. Can Jalen Duren show regular flashes of being a really good protector? Can Stewart consistently guard on the perimeter? Will Thompson’s defensive intensity maintain throughout the course of an entire season when he’s guarding the other team’s best player every night? Can Detroit get something defensively from Bogdanović, Ivey or Burks, assuming one of them is the fifth starter? There are too many questions that need to be answered before I go out on a limb and say the Pistons will jump 10 spots on defense.
Pistons will be a top-12 rebounding team
If I were a gambling man, this is the prediction I’d put my money on.
The Pistons finished last season as the 22nd-ranked rebounding team, but I think they’ll aggressively move up the board in this category. Assuming they play big all season with Duren and Stewart, that’s a really good rebounding duo. Factor in the addition of Thompson, who hasn’t had less than eight rebounds in any game he’s played so far, and the return of Cunningham, who is a good rebounder, and I think Detroit inches very close to being a top-10 rebounding team.
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Just an FYI: The Pistons ended the preseason as the league’s third-best rebounding team.
Jaden Ivey eventually moves back into the starting lineup
There’s a chance Ivey starts on Wednesday against Miami, but all of the preseason signs have pointed toward the second-year guard beginning the season off the bench.
Ultimately, I don’t think Ivey stays out of the starting group for long. For starters, I’m not sure Detroit’s defense will be good enough to warrant not having one of their highest-upside offensive players in the starting group. It’s possible the Pistons are good enough defensively that it makes sense to leave Ivey as the sixth man, but I’m not banking on it. Furthermore, my gut tells me Bogdanović won’t be on the roster after the trade deadline if Detroit isn’t in the race for the Play-In Tournament, which could open up an avenue for Ivey to start alongside Cunningham and Thompson.
In the end, Ivey’s short-term future as a starter will be determined on how good, or how bad, the Pistons are defensively.
Isaiah Stewart will shoot 34 percent from 3 or better on three or more attempts per game
I’m committed at this point. I told you all I’m going to die on this hill, so here I am.
Stewart didn’t do much to back up my running belief in him as a decent-to-good 3-point shooter, as he only connected on four of his 21 attempts this preseason. However, he shot 40 percent last preseason, and that didn’t determine what the regular season would hold for him. So, yeah, maybe he’s getting the misses out before the basketball matters.
I believe Stewart will be a reliable 3-point shooter one day. It might not be this season. It might not be next. Yet, I’ve already hitched my wagon to this horse, so I have to stay along for the ride.
Williams experiments with Isaiah Livers as the starting power forward if Stewart’s shot doesn’t fall
This isn’t as strong of a prediction as the others, but it’s something I’ve been pondering.
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Williams appears to be fond of Livers and what he provides, even though he’s been out with an injury all preseason. Williams said Livers was having an impressive summer prior to severely turning his ankle.
If Stewart doesn’t shoot decently from 3 and the Pistons defense isn’t significantly better with two bigs, it wouldn’t surprise me if Williams tried Livers as the starting power forward. The 6-foot-6 Livers can space the floor, is a good team defender and can move his feet in space. Additionally, it would allow Stewart to be the full-time backup center, which would bolster that group.
Would I bet money on this happening? No. Do I think it’s possible? Yes.
(Top photo of Stewart, Cunningham and Thompson: Chris Schwegler / NBAE via Getty Images)
