A year from now, Big Ten basketball will look different. Wildly and preposterously different. Add four West Coast teams, and the logistics and dynamics change so much that whatever the league was has almost no relevance anymore.
So what happens before all that can make an enduring statement.
The Old Big Ten, as it were, has one more shot here. One more opportunity to turn its depth from November to February into something meaningful in March and April. Before the league essentially enhances its odds by sheer program accumulation and, with it, probably a boatload of NCAA Tournament bids every year.
Advertisement
“Understand it,” Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. “Know that one of us has to win a national championship to get this thing straightened out.”
No better place to start The Athletic’s preview of the Big Ten for 2023-24, then.
Two dominant storylines
Seriously, when will this league win a national title again?
The year 2000. A simpler time. Destiny’s Child mesmerized a nation. Segways promised to end walking forever. Joey Tribbiani got an audition for an Al Pacino movie. And a Big Ten team won a national championship in men’s basketball. It was — stop us if you’ve heard this before — the last time that happened. This year the league has two top 10 teams, including one with the reigning national player of the year, and more with measurable promise. What’s left to say but … will this be the year?
Purdue following the Virginia roadmap
The only good part about being the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed is that you weren’t the first. And it happens that the first squad to wear such a defeat, Virginia in 2018, won a national championship with a lot of the same players the following season. Matt Painter is a smart coach who’s willing to confront reality instead of running from it. (“I think it’ll stay with me forever,” he said at Big Ten media day of the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson.) Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are sophomores and not hobbled freshmen smashing into a wall at the exact wrong time. Zach Edey remains enormous. The Boilermakers were on the cusp in 2019, losing in a regional final. They’ve also lost in the first round in two of the last three NCAA Tournaments. They have a lot going for them, and a lot of history working both for and against them.
Three players to watch
Kel’El Ware, Indiana: The sophomore is 7-2 and a former five-star, national top-10 recruit who scored in double-digits just four times after Dec. 1 of his freshman season at Oregon. There’s nothing but intrigue with him. He could be a verifiable NBA prospect who’s at the core of a Hoosiers renaissance. He could be a lot of potential and not much else. “He is a very skillful player,” Indiana coach Mike Woodson said. “It’s just a matter, for him, of getting comfortable with the Big Ten and working hard. A lot of these young players, they truly believe they work hard. And I’ve always felt there’s another level that you can always reach as a player. I’ve got to get him to that level.”
Advertisement
Xavier Booker, Michigan State: The setup for the five-star freshman big man, via Izzo: “Very skilled and talented player is what I like. Great family is what I like. And not entitled is what I love.” If the head coach is correct, then Booker might be the difference between a good season and a legitimate pursuit of Izzo’s second national championship. The Spartans’ schedule, as usual, gets tough very quickly. How Booker responds to any struggles — any challenges posed externally or internally — will dictate his growth curve. Which, in turn, will set him up to be just another talented player … or a true separator come February and March.
Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois: The 6-6 wing has now played four college basketball seasons. Here are the finishes of his teams in conference play: Third, sixth, third, fifth. Not bad, not amazing. Shannon’s numbers in 2022-23 were impressive: career-highs in scoring (17.2 points per game), Win Shares (4.8) and assist rate (17.7 percent), with a true shooting percentage (.581) that matched his best. And yet … the feeling that there is something more there followed him to Champaign. Something untapped and unfulfilled. Maybe that’s at the core of Shannon’s return after testing the NBA Draft waters. People want something they haven’t seen yet, and Shannon knows he has one last chance to show it.
Top newcomer
McKenzie Mgbako, Indiana: We’ll steer clear of transfers, even though guys like Penn State’s Ace Baldwin (via VCU) may be handed the keys immediately. Mgbako, though, embodies the Indiana dynamic in every sense — how good the Hoosiers will be depends on whom you ask. On the one hand, Mgbako is the 10th-ranked freshman in the Class of 2023 and, as Woodson put it at Big Ten media day, “a piece to the puzzle that we’re hoping can step in and play right away and do some nice things for our ball club.” On another hand, Mgbako was arrested early Oct. 22 and charged with criminal trespass and resisting law enforcement after refusing to leave a Taco Bell property, according to reports. Is that a one-off incident? Is it a canary in a coal mine? Does it have any correlation to basketball performance at all? Again, probably depends on who you ask. But Mgbako is now even more of a massive variable than he was before.
Coach who needs to win
Juwan Howard, Michigan
No, it’s not exactly fair to put this on a guy who’s recovering from heart surgery. But what was promised in bringing back a program icon like Howard hasn’t materialized. Yes, the Wolverines were one win away from a Final Four in 2021. They’re also 37-31 since and missed the NCAA Tournament last spring with two top-15 NBA Draft picks on the floor. A pair of three-star recruits currently comprise the 2024 recruiting class. By now, the trend lines should look a lot different in Ann Arbor.
Predicted league finish
(Note: Order based on preseason Big Ten media poll)
Advertisement
1. Purdue: There’s only one way to know if Smith and Loyer have recovered from slamming into the freshman wall. “I think the answer lies in how they play this year, right?” Painter said. Purdue officially lists Smith at 175 pounds and Loyer at 180. They have not become Mr. Universe prospects. But they still can be better prepared, mentally and physically, as sophomores. “You get to the end, and it gets harder,” Painter said. “But it gets harder for everybody. The rules aren’t different for them than they are for anybody else. I think you learn from that.”
2. Michigan State: Some old and leathered guards will make the Spartans go, which is a good dynamic to start with in pursuit of championships. The presence of Jeremy Fears Jr., though, may be somewhat subtly key. Izzo called the top-30 recruit “one of the best leaders as a freshman that I’ve had,” and Fears’ ability to push Tyson Walker and A.J. Hoggard daily can eliminate even the possibility of complacency.
3. Maryland: Kevin Willard already has jolted the program to life before a game is played in Year 2. The bodies look more like Big Ten bodies and the practices are predictably intense. But the mentality is … interesting. Willard is banking on the future serving as motivation for the present. “Yes, we have team goals,” he said. “Yes, we have what we want to do, but for Jahmir (Young), Donta (Scott), Julian (Reese), we’re looking for them to take the next step so they can become NBA players or pros. That’s the way I look at it.”
4. Illinois: Brad Underwood can be convincingly over-excited about his players, so do we take his optimism about the point guard spot with a pinch of salt? “Everybody seems to be worried about it except me,” the Illini coach said. But Underwood has been very high on sophomore Ty Rodgers, the presumptive starter, before the 6-6 guard even stepped on campus. Underwood thinks his biggest mistake in 2022-23 was not playing Rodgers at the point more. As it is, Rodgers had a 9.8 percent assist rate while playing 17.4 minutes per game as a freshman, which is not overly convincing evidence. But it’s also a small sample. There’s every chance Underwood isn’t living in the land of make-believe when he’s talking about Rodgers.
5. Wisconsin: “The word I’ve used the most over the offseason is ‘retention,’” Badgers coach Greg Gard said. When you return your top five players in terms of minutes logged, this tracks. But the difference between another good-but-not-transcendent season lies in the new. Is it A.J. Storr, who was an All-Big East freshman at St. John’s and gives the Badgers enviable size (6-7) at guard? Is it burgeoning cult hero Gus Yalden, the 6-9 freshman with a personality that makes everyone want a ticket for the “Gus Bus”? It has to be someone, if the Badgers are to be more than just one of the most experienced teams around.
6. Indiana: At least at the podium for Big Ten media day, Woodson set a building record for Most Expectations Managed. Everyone on the roster, it seemed, had “a lot of work to do.” Or “a long way to go.” Same for less tangible concepts like what the Hoosiers will do to score points. “Right now, I don’t know what kind of team we’re going to be offensively,” he said. But if Malik Reneau indeed has built himself into “much better shape,” as Woodson put it, one imagines a 6-9 former top-30 recruit who averaged 16.5 points and 10 rebounds per 40 minutes as a freshman being at the core of everything.
7. Ohio State: Behind the scenes in Columbus, as Brice Sensabaugh was dominating the ball, putting up the grabby numbers and winning Big Ten freshman of the week awards regularly, Chris Holtmann sincerely wanted Bruce Thornton to get some shine. Mostly because the Buckeyes’ other freshman guard was the ballast for the entire operation, eventually leading the team in total minutes played (1,069). There will be no need to search out the spotlight this year. It’s on Thornton, squarely, as Ohio State tries to rebound from a 5-15 conference record last winter. “The consistency of his work and his approach I think has been a really good thing to see,” Holtmann said of Thornton, “and it’s also certainly been contagious.”
Advertisement
8. Northwestern: The last time the Wildcats tried to make back-to-back NCAA Tournaments, it … did not go well. A lot went into a 15-17 season – playing “home” games at soulless Allstate Arena while Welsh-Ryan Arena was renovated didn’t help, for example — but mostly Chris Collins’ crew couldn’t duplicate the previous year’s general drive. That’s front of mind now, especially since Northwestern relied on defense (22nd nationally in adjusted efficiency) to reach the Big Dance last spring. “The thing you learn is you can never just assume just because you have guys back, it’s going to automatically be the same,” Collins said. “You have to start over. You have to re-establish habits.”
9. Iowa: Might not be the worst thing to have Caitlin Clark consuming all the hoops oxygen in Iowa City this winter. Not because the men’s squad will be bad; there are just more unknown quantities and undefined dynamics than we’re accustomed to with Fran McCaffery’s rosters. The Hawkeyes will be working through some things. Ben Krikke is the walking emblem of that; the 6-9 forward averaged 19.4 points at Valparaiso last season and was on All-Missouri Valley Conference teams three years running. It would be very helpful to Iowa if Krikke was even in the neighborhood of that production, but up-transfer results are a finicky thing. There’s a lot of wait-and-see here.
10. Rutgers: One can imagine the momentum if the Scarlet Knights didn’t suffer a big injury to a key defender (Maywot Mag) midway through 2022-23, or if the selection committee interpreted Rutgers’ top 40 NET rating differently. As things stand, reaching the NCAA Tournament isn’t improbable … but the build is the thing, regardless, for Steve Pikiell’s program. There’s a top-100 recruit, Gavin Griffiths, on campus right now. The No. 3 player in the Class of 2024, Ace Bailey, is committed to arrive next summer, while the Scarlet Knights remain the perceived leader for No. 2 prospect Dylan Harper. This inevitably will be a group that makes life miserable for opponents and wins its share of Big Ten games. But it’s hard not to view 2023-24 from the perspective of how it sets up what’s next.
11. Michigan: If the Wolverines are going to turn things around, it will be a sum-is-greater-than-the-parts effort. The admissions office denied Howard his best path to bringing in a dynamic go-to offensive outlet when it didn’t accept enough of Caleb Love’s credits. So … you squint. Dug McDaniel was an impact performer down the stretch as a freshman, scoring in double-figures in six of the Wolverines’ last eight games. Jaelin Llewellyn was a solid producer at Princeton who never had a chance to mesh at Michigan last year, tearing his ACL eight games in. Olivier Nkamhoua averaged 17.1 points per 40 minutes for Tennessee last season, finishing second on a good Volunteers team with 4.2 Win Shares. Nimari Burnett, at one point, was a five-star recruit. Does it all add up to a competitive group? Can it, even?
12. Nebraska: Fred Hoiberg is more excited than you are, or at least more than writers appraising his team. He notes that the Huskers have nine players with four or more years of experience and bring back more than half their scoring and won five of their last six regular-season games. “Had we stayed healthy,” Hoiberg said, “I honestly think we had a chance to be an (NCAA) Tournament team last year.” But are you better because you’re older … or are you just older? Can Keisei Tominaga emerge as a bona fide difference-making star? Does the group have the wherewithal to be better than 69th nationally in defensive efficiency and maybe grind out wins that way? If Hoiberg is more right than wrong, a long-overdue step ahead is in order. But how much will it take to make him right?
13. Penn State: At the risk of overexposing a simple typo, the Nittany Lions’ new head coach was listed on the schedule for Big Ten media day breakout interviews as … Steve Rhoades. With Penn State hoops, tough to get more on the nose than that. Then again, everyone is getting acquainted here. Mike Rhoades — that’s M-I-K-E — has two holdover scholarship players on his first roster in State College. There are two transfers from his former stop at VCU — most notably Ace Baldwin Jr. — and four from other mid-major programs. Baldwin was the Atlantic 10 player of the year and defensive player of the year last season … and he only played one game against a Power 6 team (Vanderbilt). Who knows what’s going to happen here?
14. Minnesota: Last call for Dawson Garcia, who has one season left to make good on the promise he had as a top-50 recruit. It didn’t click at Marquette or North Carolina and, after transferring to his home-state program, the 6-11 forward was the best player (15.3 points, 6.7 rebounds per game) on a nine-win team a year ago. “He’s got a hunger like I haven’t seen in a player in a long time,” Gophers coach Ben Johnson said. Garcia has to prove Johnson right and perform at a career-best level, if he and his team have any chance to change their narratives.
(Top photo of Tyson Walker: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
