Read The Athletic’s NFL survivor pool picks for Week 12.
You can tell we’re getting into the thick of Survivor season as about 56 percent of players chose the Seattle Seahawks in Week 7, meaning most of you are skating into Week 8. A significant number (15 percent) lost with the Buffalo Bills, highlighting one of our original strategy points: avoid road teams in divisional matchups when possible. The Bills have now lost two games to perceived inferior opponents (Jets and Patriots).
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Teams at least six-point favorites this week include Buffalo, Philadelphia, Dallas, Miami, San Francisco, Kansas City, Baltimore, LA Chargers and Detroit. This, and the lack of byes in Week 8, gives us so many more options than last week and I expect that to show up in a more even distribution of picks this week.
These were the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 7: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Chiefs, Eagles and Dolphins are viable picks for Week 8.
Week 8 Strategy
Adam Gretz: There are so many big lines across the NFL this week that, at first glance, it seems like it should be an easy week to make a pick. But there is also a good chance you have probably already used many big favorites. If you still have Miami, that seems safe because they feast on bad teams, and I do not think New England has back-to-back upsets in them. They also tend to struggle in Miami even with a good team. Given the options left for us this week, I am torn between the Chargers and the Lions. The Chargers should be an obvious pick, given they are getting a Bears team led by Tyson Bagent at home, but everything I know about the Los Angeles Chargers tells me never to trust them. Ever. Especially with a defense that bad. So that makes my pick easy for me.
Renee Miller: With so many potential ‘obvious’ picks this week, my strategy is simply not to overthink it. There will be enough natural diversity in the picks that we don’t need to try extra hard to be unique. Home teams that are favored heavily make the safest plays; Miami, Dallas, LA Chargers, San Francisco and Detroit fit the bill. Normally, I’m shy about taking teams that have demonstrated a high degree of inconsistency or are facing an opponent who is very up and down, but that excludes everyone this week. I’m betting on one team, in particular, to get back on track offensively in a matchup with an equally poor defense.
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Week 8 Chalk Picks
All odds via BetMGM. Pick percentages from SurvivorGrid.
Adam Gretz: Detroit Lions over Las Vegas Raiders
I know the Lions looked awful last week, but sometimes you just run into a team that is clicking on all cylinders and is out to deliver a message, and nothing you do is going to stop it. That happened to them in Baltimore, and I do not see that happening again. Not this week. Not at home. Not against this Raiders team.
The Raiders’ only three wins this season have come against a Denver team that is a bottom-three team, Mac Jones and Jordan Love. They also have one of the worst offenses in the NFL that can not run, protect, or throw the ball despite having one of the league’s best wide receivers in Devante Adams. Jimmy Garoppolo might be back, but even if he is he probably isn’t going to be 100 percent, and I don’t see how that offense does anything against a Lions team that is going to be looking to redeem itself and send a message of its own.
The Lions also have a massive coaching edge in this game. Dan Campbell might not be perfect, but I trust him significantly more than I trust Josh McDaniels in any one game. Even if it is close at the end, I trust McDaniels will screw it up.
Even though the Lions have some good future value with some of their matchups, I am going with them, given how many of the other big favorites are off the board.
Renee Miller: LA Chargers over Chicago Bears
The Chargers have struggled in the two games since their Week 5 bye, losing both (to Dallas and Kansas City) and scoring just 17 points in each. Meanwhile, their defense is among the worst in the league, allowing over 25 points per game. I know this is where I say good things about the team I’m picking, but ultimately you’re choosing who to pick and you should have all the facts, not just the favorable ones. What can I say? I’m a ‘get the bad news out of the way first’ person.
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This offense revolves around Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Herbert has been one of the best QBs in the league since his debut, and by several metrics that is still true. He has had to adjust to life without Mike Williams, but in Week 7 we saw him complete long passes – one of his and Williams’ specialties – to Allen, Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer. A two-pronged rushing attack from Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley struggled against Dallas and KC, but those are two of the best defenses in the league. This Chargers team has all the talent it needs, and the Chicago Bears provide the defenseless opponent to showcase all of it. The Bears are among the most generous on the ground and through the air, allowing opponents the fifth-most points per game and an average of 3.1 touchdowns per game. Playing at home on Sunday Night Football, the Chargers are 10.5-point favorites over Chicago. Ultimately, we don’t believe a Tyson Bagent-led Bears offense will be enough to overcome the combined prowess of Herbert and his elite skill players.
Week 8 Contrarian Picks
Adam Gretz: Houston Texans over Carolina Panthers
The battle of the top-two quarterback picks in this year’s draft and both of them are coming in off of bye weeks. In recent years, going with Houston as a survivor pick would be wild given how they haven’t won more than four games in a season since the 2019 season. But they will get a fourth win this season on Sunday against a Carolina team that is not only bad, but seems to be getting worse in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Houston is a train starting to roll in the opposite direction, with wins in three of its past four games, including a couple of impressive blowouts against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. C.J. Stroud has looked better than Bryce Young this season, and I love the way DeMeco Ryans has his team playing. Houston could be an option if you do not have one of the big favorites to pick from and do not trust any of the closer matchups.
Renee Miller: Jacksonville Jaguars over Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers and Lions have some nice future matchups, so if you’re looking to save them and feel comfortable playing it a little riskier this week, look at the Jaguars. Jacksonville is on a four-game win streak during which they’ve bested the Bills, Colts, Falcons and Saints. Only one was a true home game, as two were played in London. The wins have been powered by a competent Trevor Lawrence and a workhorse running back in Travis Etienne. Etienne has two rushing touchdowns in each of the Jags’ last three games, helping the Jaguars to be the ninth-highest-scoring team in the league.
This is especially relevant when we look at how the Steelers have fared on both sides of the ball this season. First, they allow the fifth-most rushing yards per game and eighth-most passing yards per game. Second, they score the sixth-fewest points per game. They’ve pulled out some surprising wins – Week 5 over Baltimore most notably – but overall, there isn’t a lot of confidence in this Pittsburgh team topping Jacksonville as the Jaguars are 2.5-point road favorites. Another item to consider is the future schedule of Jacksonville: bye, SF, TEN, HOU. I don’t feel great about them in any of those matchups after the bye making this a good week to use one of the league’s highest scoring teams.
(Photo of Jared Goff and Dan Campbell: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)