What a doozy! After completing 378 Best Ball drafts and 24 high-stakes Roto drafts, I have just one final draft remaining on Wednesday afternoon, and I plan to go out with a bang.
Today, I’m going to hit you with six predictions for this NBA season — ranging somewhere between logical and bold — before giving you a behind-the-scenes look at one of my NFBKC Super league drafts, where I try to answer the elusive question: can you punt a category in Roto leagues and still win?
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Six fantasy basketball predictions for the ’23-24 season
1. This year’s rookie class is going to have a major fantasy impact
For some fantasy managers, it’s taken a while for them to realize just how good Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Scoot Henderson and the Thompson twins already are. Wembanyama, Holmgren and Ausar Thompson especially have been shooting up draft boards over the past two weeks, and believe it or not, I still think they’re being undervalued. For example, in my high-stakes auction draft, I won Wemby for $29, Holmgren went for $25, Henderson went for $10, Ausar went for $9, and Amen Thompson went for $6. But next year, it won’t surprise me if all five players end up going for 50% to 75% more than they did this year.
These rookies aren’t just long and athletic, they are extremely skilled and dynamic as well, and their versatility is going to show up on the stat sheet on a nightly basis. Mark my words: at the end of this season, or perhaps a lot sooner, you will be kicking yourself for not targeting this year’s top rookies more aggressively. As for Dereck Lively, I would set your expectations pretty low early on, as he’ll likely be very inconsistent. But I could see Lively coming on strong later in the season, along with a few other players from this talented rookie class.
2. Scottie Barnes will be more valuable than Pascal Siakam
So who else is aboard the Scottie Barnes hype train? If there is one player who I’ve simply had to have this year, it’s Barnes. I’ve been drafting him over and over, whether for points-based leagues or Roto leagues. And he’s about to take the NBA world by storm. With a beefed-up frame, more confidence, better shooting mechanics, and a new coach who has been singing his praises, all signs point to Barnes having a monster breakout year, and quickly overtaking Siakam to be the face of the Raptors franchise.
3. One of the Thunder’s young stars is likely to disappoint
On paper, it’s easy to love the talented quartet of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey. They all bring unique skills to the table, and the end result should be a very competitive Thunder team that is going to be lots of fun to watch. But fantasy-wise, it will be hard for all of them to live up to the high expectations of fantasy managers. Using the latest average draft positions (ADP) from high-stakes Roto leagues, SGA has been a Top 5 lock, Holmgren is now going in the Top 40, Williams has an ADP in the mid-50’s, and Giddey has an ADP in the mid-60’s.
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Those draft spots are essentially assuming that SGA, Williams and Giddey will be able to replicate and build upon what they did last season, while also incorporating a Top 40 fantasy player into the mix in Holmgren. That’s going to be a tough task, and there may need to be some stat-sacrificing for this team to achieve what it wants to this year.
4. Some top guards are going to have disappointing assist numbers
The majority of NBA teams seem focused on having more free-flowing offensive systems, which means that teams don’t really want their point guard to be pounding the rock possession after possession. As a result, don’t be surprised if assists start being spread out a little bit more amongst teammates. A good example here might be the Houston Rockets. Sure, Fred VanVleet averaged 7.2 assists per game last season for Toronto, but that wasn’t a winning formula for the Raptors.
Now on the Rockets, VanVleet dished out just 15 assists over 94 preseason minutes — 5.7 assists per 36 minutes. With new teammates Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson being very gifted passers and play-makers, and Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. being more than capable of creating their own shots, FVV will likely be getting fewer assist opportunities this season.
5. Tyrese Haliburton will average over 11.5 assists per game
Remember what I just said about teams spreading out their assists a bit more this season? Scratch that for the Indiana Pacers, as they are a fine-tuned race car which only Haliburton has the keys to. The way that he’s able to manipulate defenses and get to his spots is quite impressive, and his court vision is extraordinary. Since the Year 2000, only Steve Nash, Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo and Russell Westbrook have managed to hand out over 11.5 assists per game, but I like Haliburton’s chances of accomplishing it.
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to shoot over 60% from the field
Giannis has made 55.3% of his field goals in each of the past two seasons, but he posted a career-best 57.8% FG mark during the 2018-19 season. The main difference was that over 57% of his shot attempts came within three feet of the hoop that year, compared to just 48% last season and 41% the year prior. Obviously, Milwaukee wants to generate as many point blank looks as possible for Giannis, and the addition of Damian Lillard is going to help accomplish that. I sense a 60% FG season coming, which leads us to…
Tales from an $18,000 super league draft
On Monday night, I participated in my first super league Roto draft of the season. With an entry fee of $2,500, and $18,000 awarded for first place, they’re called super leagues for a reason. With so much at stake, and because the super drafts always take place right before the start of the season, when everyone’s “sleepers’”are already out of the bag, pressure is usually sky high during these drafts.
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I still remember the first time I won an NFBKC super league back in the 2010-11 season. It was memorable because I eked out the victory on the final day of the season, winning by just one Roto point (if memory serves…). But it was memorable for another reason as well.
The fantasy manager who I was battling for the league title that year, Mr. Jason Santucci, employed a bold strategy — actively punting a category, despite it being a Roto league rather than a Head-to-head league, and it being a snake draft rather than an auction draft. I hadn’t seen this done before, at least not successfully.
Looking back at old emails, I see that his team name that year was: “Project D12 — Roto Punting!” As some of you might presume, his team was built around Dwight Howard, who averaged an impressive 22.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 2.4 blocks per game that season, with nearly identical shooting percentages of 59.3% from the field and 59.6% from the foul line.
Most people who played Roto fantasy hoops back then shied away from drafting Howard in the early rounds due to his ghastly free throw shooting, and those who did draft him often made the mistake of trying to surround him with elite free throw shooters, myself included. Instead, Santucci embraced Howard’s poor FT%, and his bold strategy nearly paid off.
That clearly left an impression on me, but year after year, even when I tell myself going into a Roto snake draft that I’m going to punt FT%, I usually abandon those plans a few rounds into the draft. Quite simply, it’s a risky strategy, and you need the right players to fall into your lap each round, throughout the entire draft.
Lo and behold, as I entered the draft room on Monday night, I did not intend to punt any categories. Instead, it just happened organically. But once I decided to commit to it, I think I did a very fine job of executing. So I present to you, Project Freak — Roto Punting!
Round-by-round picks for: Project Freak — Roto Punting!
Round 1, No. 3 pick overall — Tyrese Haliburton, IND
As great as Gilgeous-Alexander is, there’s something magical about watching Haliburton orchestrate an offense, and as I mentioned above, I’m projecting Haliburton to lead the league in assists this season. And I’ll gladly take elite assists over elite shooting and scoring numbers from, for example, Stephen Curry.
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Round 2, No. 22 pick overall — Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL
All of the centers who I was hoping for in this round — Anthony Davis, Jaren Jackson Jr., Domantas Sabonis, Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo — were off the board by pick 18. And the three picks before me were LaMelo Ball, Mikal Bridges and Darius Garland, all fine picks in their own right. When I realized that Giannis was available for me, I quickly did a Google search to see if anything was wrong with him. Nope, in fact the opposite, the Bucks had signed him to a sweet contract extension that morning. So I made the pick, and I decided to put a punting plan into action.
Round 3, No. 34 pick overall — Jamal Murray, DEN
Yes, I realize that Murray is a very good free throw shooter, at 87% FT for his career. But he’s also a low volume free throw shooter, and I wanted a lead guard who could put points and 3-pointers on the board in bunches, while further pumping up my assists. De’Aaron Fox was already off the board or I would have strongly considered him, but I’m happy with this pick.
Round 4, No. 39 pick overall — Scottie Barnes, TOR
Sure, I’ve gotten Barnes at the end of the fifth round in some drafts, but I didn’t want to risk passing on him here. After all, Barnes is MY GUY this season, and I don’t advise drafting based on ADP numbers when this much money is at stake. You go after the guys you want, period! My biggest Roto concern with Barnes is his mediocre free throw shooting, but thankfully, that’s no concern here. For more blocks I could have taken Holmgren here, but I prefer Barnes’ all-around stat ability.
Round 5, No. 58 pick overall — Alperen Sengun, HOU
Since NFBKC leagues force you to start two centers every week, and only a handful of big men get dual F/C eligibility, dependable centers usually fly off the board early and often. So I was very pleased to get Sengun in Round 5, as players like Walker Kessler, Nic Claxton and Deandre Ayton were already gone. I was hoping to have either Zion Williamson or Paolo Banchero fall to me given how well they fit the punt FT% strategy, but both players were taken in the three picks prior. I was okay with that, as I fully expect Sengun to be in my starting lineup all season long, health permitting.
Round 6, No. 63 pick overall — Tyrese Maxey, PHI
Maxey time! It made sense when Maxey was falling to the sixth round in early October, but given that this draft happened just a few days ago, when James Harden had already missed several practices, it was shocking to see that others weren’t going harder after Maxey. I gladly swooped him up, reinforcing my guard stats, and getting lots of upside in the process.
Round 7, No. 82 pick overall — Jabari Smith Jr., HOU
Speaking of upside, few forwards have a chance to make a bigger fantasy leap than Smith this season. He was a man amongst boys in the Las Vegas Summer League, and he carried that newfound confidence into preseason. Smith actually has a nice shooting touch from the foul line, so you could argue that I’m wasting one of his strengths. But don’t worry, there’s plenty of time to draft some terrible free throw shooters.
Round 8, No. 87 pick overall — Ausar Thompson, DET
As I said before, when the stakes are high, you don’t pass on a player who you really want in hopes of them falling another round to you. So I jumped on Ausar Thompson in Round 8, meaning my group of forwards now consists of: Giannis, Barnes, Smith and Thompson. Good luck to my competitors in fielding a group of forwards more athletic and oozing with more talent than that quartet. His free throw shooting might be pretty terrible as a rookie, but in this scenario, I really don’t mind that.
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Round 9, No. 106 pick overall — Mitchell Robinson, NYK
Drafting a proven second center, check. Getting a serious FG% booster, check. Pumping up all of my defensive stats, check. Drafting one of the worst free throw shooters in the league, check!! Robinson, at this spot, is great value for my team, especially considering that Jalen Duren went 26 picks earlier and Mark Williams went 31 picks earlier.
Round 10, No. 111 pick overall — Ben Simmons, BKN
When Simmons fell to me in the 10th round, I started pumping my fists. For what my team needed at this point in the draft, I couldn’t think of a better player. Simmons will solidify my steals and assists, while further strengthening my team’s FG%. And don’t worry Ben, I won’t complain when you brick your freebies!
Round 11, No. 130 pick overall — Xavier Tillman, MEM
This draft took place a day after Steven Adams was declared out for the season due to his ongoing knee issues. Rather than waiting to see where Tillman would get picked, I went after him in Round 11. In 29 spot starts last season, Tillman averaged a rock solid 9.7 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.3 steals and 0.6 blocks on 64% shooting from the field. As my third center? Yes, please! I was hoping to pick Aaron Gordon at this spot, but he got taken right in front of me.
Round 12, No. 135 pick overall — Keldon Johnson, SAS
After picking three straight non-scorers in Robinson, Simmons and Tillman, I knew that I would need some nice scoring punch these next two rounds. Sure enough, Johnson fell to me in Round 12, which wouldn’t have happened if he was an 80% FT shooter, rather than the 75% shooter he is. Rookie Brandon Miller was still on the board here, but I worried about his inconsistencies.
Round 13, No. 154 pick overall — RJ Barrett, NYK
Barrett has been getting zero love in Roto drafts this season due to his lack of defensive stats and terrible shooting efficiency last season. But for the purposes of this fantasy team, I’m not concerned about his shaky free throw shooting. It’s very rare to get a potential 20 point per game scorer this late in drafts, so I made this pick with some glee. I love it when a plan comes together.
Round 14, No. 159 pick overall — Max Strus, CLE
Heading into the final rounds, my team was pretty desperate for some 3-point shooting help. So I was pleased to take Strus here, as he’s going to be getting lots of quality 3-point looks on the Cavs. He’s still somewhat streaky, but if you play him at the right time, Strus can easily give you 20 threes during a one week span.
Round 15, No. 178 pick overall — Malik Beasley, MIL
Let’s keep those 3-point balls falling by taking Beasley here. Over five preseason games, Beasley averaged 3.4 made threes, in less than 23 minutes per game! And of course it’s fun to pair him with The Greek Freak, so I can watch them play together for the Bucks, while they rack up stats for my super league team. A couple of guards who nearly fell to me here were Caris LeVert and Jalen Suggs. I probably would have taken one of them if available, but I still like Beasley’s upside.
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Round 16, No. 183 pick overall — Matisse Thybulle, POR
I decided to close out this super fun draft by enhancing my team’s stronghold over steals and blocks. A well-known defensive wizard, I also hold out hope for Thybulle to finally become a legit 3-point shooting threat all season long. But if not, it will be easy to replace him.
Roster summary: Project Freak — Roto Punting!
Guards: Haliburton, J. Murray, Maxey, Simmons, Barrett, Beasley, Thybulle
Forwards: Giannis, S. Barnes, Jab. Smith, Ausar, Keldon, Strus
Centers: Sengun, Mitch-Rob, Tillman
For a 12 team, ultra-competitive Roto league, I’m loving this team I built. I expect to finish the season at or near the top of the standings in rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and FG%, which should more than negate my team’s terrible FT%, which will probably be below 72% FT. And while my points and 3-pointers could be improved upon, those are relatively easy areas to focus on in free agency.
Not only am I ecstatic with how this fantasy team turned out, but actively punting FT% in a Roto league was an incredibly fun way to draft, and I urge you to try it some time. Who cares if it’s risky, fantasy drafts are supposed to be fun! So, thank you, Jason Santucci, for providing that blueprint for me way back when. And to my fellow fantasy managers in this super league, best of luck to you. You’re gonna need it!
(Photo of Scottie Barnes, Giannis Antetokounmpo: John Fisher/Getty Images)
