The 2023 NFL trade deadline has come and gone. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to evaluate each of Tuesday’s key moves and the returns for each of the teams involved.
49ers trade for Commanders DE Chase Young
In an NFL trade deadline day splash, the San Francisco 49ers acquired defensive end Chase Young from the Washington Commanders for a compensatory third-round pick.
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Why they made the move
The Commanders shipped out Young and defensive end Montez Sweat, prioritizing future draft picks over re-signing a couple of former first-round picks.
The Niners needed a defensive boost. They haven’t generated enough pressure during their three-game losing streak, but now they can pair Young with Nick Bosa for one of the scariest pass-rushing combinations in the league. That’ll give them a huge boost as they prepare for a playoff run against high-powered NFC offenses in Philly, Dallas and Detroit, and it could help them chase down the Seahawks for the NFC West division lead.
Reunited and it feels so good @nbsmallerbear 🤝 @youngchase907 pic.twitter.com/G1SOyCXCT3
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) October 31, 2023
Trade grade (49ers): A-plus
Young has five sacks in seven games this season, as he’s been reinvigorated after two maddeningly injury-shortened seasons. The 2020 No. 2 pick is going to love playing on a Niners defense that has a lot of talent up front and will give him plenty of one-on-one pass-rushing opportunities.
This is a classic Niners move. They’re never afraid to go for it (see the Christian McCaffrey trade) and didn’t have to pay a hefty price to do so. And if this works out the way they hope, the Niners will get a firsthand evaluation of a star-caliber player before entering negotiations on a contract extension.
Trade grade (Commanders): B-minus
The Commanders got an A-grade for the Sweat trade (see below) because the return is virtually guaranteed to be a top-40 pick, but they gave up Young for a pick in the neighborhood of No. 100. This wasn’t an unpredictable price, as league executives were legitimately concerned about Young’s health and durability. He missed 22 games from 2021-22.
On a grander scale, this was a sign the Commanders are committing to a full rebuild under new ownership. While there’s nothing wrong with being realistic and starting over, they’ve got to be prepared for the message that sends to coach Ron Rivera and the players who remain on the roster.
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On the bright side, they’ve now got five picks in the first three rounds of the 2024 draft. Their first-rounder is currently at No. 11, and that could very realistically climb higher in the top 10 without two of their best defensive players. If that happens, they’ll have three picks in the top-40 range and the potential to be in play for a quarterback.
Bills trade for Packers CB Rasul Douglas
The Bills acquired cornerback Rasul Douglas and a fifth-round pick from the Packers for a third-round pick.
Why they made the move
The Bills are thin in the secondary with Tre’Davious White out for the season with a torn Achilles, while 2022 first-round pick Kaiir Elam hasn’t developed according to plan. Douglas is good enough to start immediately.
The Packers are shedding salary in the post-Aaron Rodgers era and are gearing up for a roster restart in 2024. They’re 2-5 and in current possession of the No. 6 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Trade grade (Bills): A
They’re still in a win-now mode, and they’re going to have to get through a gauntlet of high-powered AFC offenses if they’re going to reach the Super Bowl. Douglas has some versatility and should fit nicely into Sean McDermott’s defense.
The 29-year-old is a playmaker who has 10 interceptions and 32 pass breakups over the last three seasons. Again, with the pass-heavy nature of the AFC, the Bills were proactive about adding talent to their secondary rather than standing pat.
Rasul Douglas: 75.2 PFF grade this season
He ranks 21st/129 CBs (minimum 100 snaps played)
— PFF BUF Bills (@PFF_Bills) October 31, 2023
Trade grade (Packers): B-minus
It’s nice to add a third-round pick, but they weakened their secondary and surrendered a fifth-rounder to do it. It’ll help the rebuild, especially once they get Rodgers’ dead money off the books, but the Packers essentially traded Douglas to move up about 60 picks in the draft.
The situation in Green Bay has deteriorated this season, but that should be expected. The Packers were realistic in knowing they couldn’t build a contending roster with $60 million in dead cap space.
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However, the rocky development of quarterback Jordan Love for an offensive-minded head coach in Matt LaFleur is the more troubling aspect of a season that has slipped away quicker than most probably expected. By moving Douglas, the Packers have admitted they recognize the playoffs aren’t a realistic goal over the next two months.
Vikings trade for Cardinals QB Joshua Dobbs
We saw some quarterback movement on deadline day, as the Minnesota Vikings acquired quarterback Josh Dobbs and a conditional seventh-round draft pick from the Arizona Cardinals for a sixth-rounder.
Why they made the move
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles on Sunday and is out for the season, so they were motivated to reinforce the depth chart. Dobbs and rookie Jaren Hall will compete for the starting job over the final nine games, with Nick Mullens potentially able to return from injured reserve. The Vikings (4-4) are still very much in the playoff race, so they wanted to add a more known commodity to the equation.
Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon announced Monday that Dobbs would no longer be the team’s starter. Rookie Clayton Tune will start this week if Kyler Murray isn’t ready to return from injured reserve. Dobbs, who was acquired before the regular season, started all eight games, but the Cardinals will want to evaluate Tune and Murray before making an important quarterback decision in the offseason: stick with Murray or find a new QB in the draft?
Trade grade (Vikings): B
The Cardinals acquired Dobbs less than three weeks before the season opener, and he played relatively well under challenging circumstances, completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,569 yards with eight touchdowns and five interceptions. He also flashed some running ability with 47 carries for 258 yards and three touchdowns.
Now, he’ll have to repeat that feat for the Vikings, and it’ll help that head coach Kevin O’Connell is a former quarterback with a user-friendly offense and some talented skill players. The Vikings gave up very little to add Dobbs to the mix.
Trade grade (Cardinals): C-plus
The Cardinals are currently in possession of the No. 1 pick in the draft and have to evaluate their other quarterbacks over the next two months, so this was a fairly inconsequential move. It’ll help to get Tune some game reps before Murray returns, but that’s when the true evaluation starts as it relates to the future direction of the franchise.
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If Dobbs wasn’t in their plans for the rest of the season — and he shouldn’t have been — the Cardinals did right by the quarterback to move him to a better situation in Minnesota.
Bears trade for Commanders DE Montez Sweat
The Chicago Bears took the first big swing of deadline day, sending a second-round pick to the Commanders for defensive end Montez Sweat.
Why they made the move
Sweat is playing out the final year of his contract, and the Commanders already have a strong — and highly-paid — defensive line. Trying to sign him to a big-money deal this offseason would have stressed their salary-cap dynamics. Sweat and fellow defensive end Chase Young had been two of the most popular names on the trade market for a couple of weeks, and the Commanders landed a Day 2 pick for each of them.
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Did the Bears overpay in Montez Sweat trade to fill edge-rushing need?
The Bears continue to chip away at a massive rebuild. They’re currently in possession of the second and third picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, so they’ve got a strong chance to flip one of those selections for more draft capital.
Sweat, a first-round pick in 2019, has 6 1/2 sacks this season and 35 1/2 career sacks. The 27-year-old could be a defensive cornerstone if the Bears sign him to a long-term contract.
New Bears DE Montez Sweat is one of seven players in the league with at least 5.0 sacks in each of the past five seasons, joining Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt, Khalil Mack, Maxx Crosby, Brian Burns and Chris Jones (h/t @starrettjason).
Good company.
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) October 31, 2023
Trade grade (Commanders): A
The Bears are 2-6, and quarterback Justin Fields is going to miss his third consecutive game with a shoulder injury, so they’re unlikely to have a major turnaround this season. The pick is currently slotted at No. 35, which would be an incredible return for a struggling Commanders team that is also projected to be equipped with its own high draft pick.
The Commanders invested heavy draft capital on their defensive line, using four first-round picks on the position from 2017-20. And while they hit on each pick, it’s probably unrealistic to think they could afford to shell out second contracts for all of them. They’ve already paid Daron Payne (four years, $90 million) and Jonathan Allen (four years, $72 million), so Sweat was likely gone after the season, and the Commanders did an excellent job of maximizing their return with the trade.
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Trade grade (Bears): Somewhere between A and Z
You can talk yourself into any opinion with this trade. There are valid cases for both sides.
It’s fair to think the Bears did great. They need good football players, and Sweat plays a premium position. Now, they’ve got exclusive negotiating rights and the ability to use the franchise tag if contract talks don’t go as they hope. If you want quality pass rushers, you’ve got to pay a quality price.
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Sure, you could argue the Bears could have just paid Sweat in free agency. But that’s ignoring the fact that someone else probably would have traded for him Tuesday to get a jumpstart on negotiations. And, of course, there’s no way to guarantee Sweat would have chosen to sign with the Bears during free agency.
Sweat joins a defense with linebacker Tremaine Edmunds and (for the moment) cornerback Jaylon Johnson, and they’ll keep working to fortify that group. The pass-rushing combination of Sweat and Yannick Ngakoue should be dangerous.
If Sweat is on the Bears through the prime of his career, this will more than likely be viewed as a strong trade.
It’s also fair to think it’s a bad deal for Chicago. The Bears aren’t making the playoffs this season, and they’re still a long way from contending in the NFC. Adding Sweat could ultimately hurt the value of their first-round draft pick, which is shaping up to be a massive asset with quarterbacks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye likely heading into the 2024 class.
And a year after wasting a second-round pick at the deadline on wide receiver Chase Claypool, the Bears have shipped away another high second-rounder. It’s tough to manage a large-scale rebuild without quality draft picks. Look no further than their NFC North rivals in Detroit for that example.
Analysis on the Bears acquiring Montez Sweat from @adamjahns, @BenStandig and me⤵️ https://t.co/XMEGqqxtHU pic.twitter.com/bX91px1bzD
— Kevin Fishbain (@kfishbain) October 31, 2023
Also, Sweat now has all the negotiating leverage, at least short of the franchise tag. The Bears can’t give up this type of draft pick and then deal with the optics of letting Sweat walk in free agency, so Sweat can demand to be one of the highest-paid defensive ends in the league.
If Sweat isn’t a Bear through the prime of his career, this will very likely be viewed as a failed trade.
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(Top photo of Montez Sweat and Chase Young: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
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