The NHL machinery will be firing on all pistons in a couple of weeks, meaning we have one final opportunity to contemplate the future and what things may come in 2018-19. For Edmonton Oilers fans, that includes things like Connor McDavid’s outer marker in points and in goals, the final standing for the team and what might happen in goal and on defence. With so little time left, let’s have a look at some of the major questions and concerns for the team entering training camp.
Advertisement
One big issue for Oilers fans to watch during training camp is the state of the goaltending. Cam Talbot needs to recover from last year, to the point where his save percentage is hovering around the top 12 among starting goalies. Almost as important, backup Mikko Koskinen needs to play 25-30 games and win more than he loses—that’s a major ask for an unproven goalie, even one with a strong resume (Koskinen did well in the KHL over several years).
Oscar Klefbom will need to step up in all areas; he’ll be a key for the team at 5-on-5 and on the power play. At even strength, Klefbom and Adam Larsson need to play the tough minutes and hold elite opponents at bay. It’s a tall order, one that the duo capably delivered in 2016-17 but had difficulty providing last season. Some of that was injury, some was absence due to devastating loss, and none of it was avoidable. One good thing about last year’s team was the emergence of Darnell Nurse in a feature role. If he can build on things, the blue line will be of benefit in a big way.
The Puck IQ numbers, which I’ve published before, show Klefbom, Larsson and Nurse playing a lot against elites and having some success even during the difficult ’17-18 season. Puck IQ “bins” all opposition based on three levels of competition: Elites, mid-level and the period of a game in which coaches put out their fourth lines (usually against each other).
Ideally, Andrej Sekera would have returned healthy and provided solid play inside the top two pairings, but that option is no longer available. We might hear whispers about Justin Faulk as a trade option during camp; you can make a case for Matt Benning being a better second pairing option.
Fans should be watchful during the waiver period; something could break allowing Edmonton to shore up the defence. Evan Bouchard will get a long look and maybe nine games to audition, although the Oilers are making the correct noises about slow-playing this year’s first rounder. My choice for second pair righty defenceman is Benning; perhaps he and Nurse will emerge as an effective duo.
Advertisement
A quick start required
The early schedule is a bear, an absolutely noxious set of games that could put the team in a hole by Halloween. It’ll be vitally important to end October with something near a point per game in the standings (or better). Two key areas for the team: Connor McDavid’s point totals and the special teams.
McDavid’s even-strength totals a year ago (35-49-84) were truly mind-boggling, NaturalStatTrick telling us an 18-point gap existed between McDavid and No. 2 performer Claude Giroux (25-41-66). McDavid had a three-goal gap in the discipline over Alexander Ovechkin and tied in primary assists with Artemi Panarin (30).
If the captain can match that total or close, and the power play returns to normal totals, can McDavid score 50 goals and 120 points? His power-play totals in 2016-17 (10-17-27), combined with his even-strength numbers in 2017-18, get us to 45-66-111. Can he find five more goals? Four more assists?
If he can get to 120, could he push it to 125? Joe Thornton has the best single-season total since the turn of the century, 29-96-125 in 2005-06. That might be a big story this season, although the gap between McDavid’s point total last year (108) and Thornton’s dream season over a decade ago is massive. Another 17 points might be too much to ask, although McDavid closed like a demon (33 points in his last 19 games) in 2017-18.
It might come down to the power play, and that brings us to talk of special teams. If we look at last season’s numbers, it’s easy to see room for improvement:
- 2017-18 Power Play: 31 goals (NHL average 50) and five shorthanded goals against (net: +26)
- 2017-18 Penalty Kill: 57 goals (NHL average 50) and 11 shorthanded goals for (net: -46)
Edmonton needs to clean up both areas of special teams and has added personnel who should be able to help. Adding penalty killers like Tobias Rieder, Kyle Brodziak and (possibly) Scottie Upshall should help. And if those veterans can take the PK load from McDavid, it could bode well for the captain offensively in other disciplines. That shorthanded goals-for number will go down (McDavid was 1-3-4 in 90 minutes on the penalty kill), but he should more than make up for it in other areas.
Advertisement
As for the power play, Edmonton’s approach to things and a fresh coaching staff (notably Manny Viveiros) have fans excited about what is promising to be a new look 5-on-4. Fan comments at games and online are instructive if repetitive, but finding solutions will be the job of Todd McLellan and the coaching staff. A club that boasts so much firepower shouldn’t have to sweat being at least NHL average. But Edmonton was so poor a year ago, it became a major issue for the summer.
Final thoughts
We all have our opinions on the Oilers this season. Personally, I think they’ll finish anywhere from 90 to 94 points unless derailed by injuries and/or bad goaltending. That puts the team in a fantastic race for the final playoff position, although the Pacific Division might allow 94-point teams to finish third in the group and avoid the back door.
I do believe Connor McDavid will get to 120 points, but won’t make it all the way to Thornton’s marker. I also believe McDavid will be the first Oilers player to score 50 since Craig Simpson did the deal in 1987-88 (he actually scored 13 in Pittsburgh and 43 with Edmonton, he and Dave Andreychuk the only men to play for two teams while scoring 50 in a season).
The Oilers will be life and death for the playoffs, and fans will be chewing their fingernails into April. The biggest thing to watch for is the continuing development of the young players coming up behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. If Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto and Evan Bouchard are pushing up the depth chart and finding success in the NHL (or other leagues), this organization will be in better shape in April than it is today.
It’s going to be a fascinating season.
(Top photo of McDavid: Perry Nelson / USA TODAY Sports)
