We’ve made it to the midway point of the fantasy campaign. Time flies. By this point in the season, I usually feel pretty entrenched. My guys are my guys as the investment bias known as the Endowment Effect sets in. This is where the fact that I’ve put my trust and draft capital into certain players makes me value them more highly than others might.
Advertisement
Objectively, I know that Tony Pollard is worthless on the trading block right now, but this bias is not even letting me consider sending offers out. Taking less than second round value would be a blow to my ego, an admission of failure. It’s also the voice in my head whispering about what Pollard has proven, what I might miss out on should I give up on him (FOMO). So, I’ve been stubbornly soldiering on even though he’s killing my lineup. With the brutal Eagles matchup coming up for Week 9, I’m really tempted to bench him but can already tell I lack the fortitude to go through with it. Tell me in the comments what you plan to do with Pollard this week, please!
OK, enough about me and my messed up head, let’s get to the conundrums Week 9 is serving up. It’s a weird week with several teams that make up our fantasy bread and butter finding themselves going up against the best defenses in the league.
- Miami takes on KC in Germany,
- Philadelphia and Dallas face off, with the aforementioned Eagles run defense the most feared for fantasy (fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs), while the Cowboys pass defense is one of the best in the league (plus they give up the fourth-fewest overall fantasy points).
- Seattle faces Baltimore, the team allowing the fewest real points per game
- The Bengals host Buffalo, who gives up the third-fewest points per game.
There are a lot of ways to overthink this week as byes for SF, DET, JAX and DEN limit our usual options. On the other hand, those who can’t resist tinkering with even the best rosters get the freedom to perhaps mix in some fringe players with upside this week. Let’s get to it.
Don’t Overthink:
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA — Europe games can freak people out, but usually it’s unnecessary worrying. In the case of the Dolphins, there is a legitimate reason for concern, given that the Chiefs have become one of the most effective defenses in the league. They allow the second-fewest real points, third-fewest overall fantasy points and third to QBs, plus they’re tied for third (with Buffalo) with 3.5 sacks per game. While Miami is the leading scoring team in the league, it’s not like KC has only faced the worst of the worst — teams are underperforming against this defense. Still, you’d have to be ridiculously stacked at QB to even consider benching Tua this week.
Advertisement
Tyler Lockett / DK Metcalf, WR, SEA — I don’t love Seattle on an East Coast jaunt to Baltimore, but as with Miami, the main concern here is the Ravens defense. Baltimore gives up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, and fewest to opposing QBs. Most people don’t have to start Geno Smith, but Lockett and Metcalf should be every week guys in 12-team leagues. Don’t let the matchup scare you off as this Seahawks pass offense runs through these two. Metcalf is coming off a 14-target game, while Lockett just caught 8-of-9 targets in Week 8, including a touchdown. With a bunch of good WR/Flex options on bye this week, trust talent and volume over matchup.
Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN — Since I’m in a spot (two, actually) where I am losing Christian McCaffrey and another back (Travis Etienne, Jahmyr Gibbs), Spears will be starting for me this week. He’s available in a lot of leagues and doesn’t fit the typical profile for a player to not overthink — he’s not a regular starter for fantasy. Still, there are worse options out there. Take Tony Pollard for instance (bitter manager). Spears and Derrick Henry were both listed as questionable with ankle injuries early in the week, but they play on Thursday, so there’s a chance this is just some extra rest. Spears has been reasonably involved in the Titans’ game plans, earning way fewer carries than Henry, but an equal number of targets (4) from Will Levis. Levis and DeAndre Hopkins stole the show in Week 8, but an upcoming matchup with Pittsburgh, a notably friendly run defense, should put Henry and Spears in the spotlight.
Tinker With:
Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF — The tight end position should be the most tinkered with. That means Kincaid should not be available in around 30 percent of leagues. He was drafted to be the next Travis Kelce and in his first full game without Dawson Knox, he went for 5/65/1. The week before, he caught all eight of his targets. This guy is going to be a big part of a potent offense, so if you’re lacking George Kittle, Evan Engram, or Sam LaPorta, this is the time to get Kincaid into your starting lineup. As a bonus, Cincinnati gives up the most fantasy points to tight ends.
Demario Douglas, WR, NE — New England is not what we would call a potent offense as they’ve scored the second-fewest points in the league. But, hey, that’s what PPR scoring is for. No one saw Kendrick Bourne coming this summer, but he was fantasy relevant. Now that he’s done for the season, it looks like Douglas will be a primary focus of the pass offense. Douglas actually earned more targets than Bourne over the past two games (13), with both receivers catching nine passes. Bourne was the favored red zone target for Mac Jones with six, but Douglas does have three (that he failed to score on) which is more than anyone else. If you’re in need of some fresh WR blood on your roster, Douglas and the Patriots should be able to muster some offense against Washington in Week 9. The Commanders have been one of the best fantasy matchups for QB/WR, ranking third in overall fantasy points allowed.
Derek Carr, QB, NO — With four startable QBs on bye and Kirk Cousins now added to the done-for-the-season list, not to mention less severe injuries to QBs Tyrod Taylor, Kenny Pickett, Matthew Stafford and Desmond Ridder, you might be short a signal-caller this week. Rostered in just over a third of leagues, Carr could come to your rescue this week. Despite the gimmick plays of Taysom Hill, Carr still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns in Week 8. It was his third consecutive 300+ yard game after a rough start to the season. The Saints are at home hosting the Bears, who rank as the fifth-best overall fantasy matchup. This team is gelling right now as Carr has seemingly found a groove with Alvin Kamara back on the field.
(Photo of Demario Douglas: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
