We’re only one week into the NBA season, hardly the time for overreactions, but the vibes aren’t exactly immaculate in Memphis.
They’re the only team in the league to not have won at least one game yet this season at 0-5, a far cry from the contender status this franchise held a few months ago. In a Western Conference that has already shown to be ruthless, putting yourself behind the eight ball this early is bad business, especially as banged up and depth-shy the Grizzlies are.
So what’s going on? We’re joined by our John Hollinger, a former Grizzlies executive, to break it all down.
Iko: Considering the fact the Grizzlies are without Ja Morant for the first 25 games of the year and also lost starting center Steven Adams for the year (Brandon Clarke also remains out), there were always going to be some early-season struggles. But I didn’t think it would be to this degree. Marcus Smart was thought to step in and mesh with an improving Desmond Bane, Ziaire Williams had locked down a starting job and Jaren Jackson Jr. was fresh off a DPOY season.
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It’s been a rough start, which is putting it mildly. They’re 29th in point differential, 23rd in defense and have the NBA’s worst offense, churning out 102.9 points per 100 possessions. This is not some rebuilding franchise we’re talking about, this is a team thought to be in the mix. On Wednesday, they didn’t look like they had a clue what Utah was doing or how to slow them down. You’ve been high on Memphis for a while and have them projected to be in the thick of Western Conference contenders — what is going on?
Hollinger: Yeah, great pick, huh? The Grizzlies are the league’s only winless team, and it’s not like the schedule has been a murderer’s row, either. You can perhaps excuse a competitive loss to the defending champs, but they got hammered by the lowly Wizards and weren’t even in the game against Utah. Bigger picture, they rank worst in offense despite playing two of the league’s bottom four defenses in the Jazz and Washington.
Injuries have of course hammered this team, but the other issue is the depth that has carried the team the last few seasons hasn’t been there. The team did fine when Xavier Tillman was pressed into service as a starter last season, but he’s seemed overmatched in the early going this year — not useful as a rim-runner, or a post scorer, or a floor spacer, which kind of limits his overall utility.
The early season has also put a microscope on decisions not to use their non-taxpayer mid-level exception in either of the last two years, and to trade De’Anthony Melton for the draft pick that became David Roddy. Memphis invested in three young forwards — Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia and Roddy — hoping at least one would fill the need for a 3/4 who could soak up 25 to 30 minutes a night. Thus far none of the three have been good enough.
The sorta good news is that the Jackson-Bane-Smart core has largely held up their end of the bargain production-wise, and that Luke Kennard will hopefully remember how to shoot at some point. But in the absence of Morant, Clarke and Adams, the rest of the roster has been nowhere near good enough.
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Of course, the Grizzlies have usually been able to win ugly with subpar offense because of their defense. Getting Marcus Smart should have only made them tougher. What the hell happened there?
Iko: Defensively, he’s definitely been a step slower than what we’ve become accustomed to. He’s tried to make up for it by being more aggressive and taking more risks which hasn’t paid off but I’d imagine he improves his defensive output by the 15-20 game mark. I know the Grizzlies probably want that done as soon as possible.
On a grand scale, Smart is still getting acclimated to his new teammates and ultimately, new responsibilities. He has the ball more in his hands than at any point in his career and is part of this “Morant by committee” playmaking approach alongside Bane, Williams and others to create the paint touches and easy shots head coach Taylor Jenkins repeatedly talks about. He’s assisting on more shots than he’s ever before but it’s come with more turnovers.
I’ve written about this a few times but wanted to get your thoughts on Memphis’ approach to distributing Morant’s ball-handling duties among the rest of the roster — should they go in a different direction and focus solely on Bane and Smart or is that still the optimal strategy for the time being? Forty-four percent of their shots are coming from the perimeter, the second-most in the league, so maybe it’s a shot-making issue as you alluded to. But Jackson has been up and down with his efficiency as well which is tough to work around.
Hollinger: That’s interesting, because one of the reasons the Celtics decided to cash in their Smart stock was the perception his defense dropped off a bit last season after winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022.
The one thing I will say for Memphis’s defense: they are absolutely getting hit with the deck on opponent 3-point shooting, which is largely bad luck. The teams they’ve played have made 43.4 percent from 3, despite Memphis having the third-lowest proportion of corner 3s allowed in the league. (Corner 3s are generally the easiest ones). Yes, too many of the looks have been wide open and the Grizz seemed to lose some of their spirit in Utah, but the teams they play aren’t going to rain fire on above-the-break 3s all season … um, right? I mean, I can handle Jamal Murray going off from 3 on them, but Derrick Jones Jr.? Deni Avdija? C’mon man.
On the offense, I don’t think the Grizzlies have the talent to play equal-opportunity offense, at least until more guys come back, and even that probably not so much. (Having Kennard and Santi Aldama back in the mix would certainly help). It all sounds fun in theory until you have Roddy and Tillman trying to run pick-and-roll.
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I would expect a lot more of the stuff we saw early last night, with wedge pick-and-rolls with Jackson, Smart and Bane involved and the other two players hanging in the corners. Of course, it’s tough to run anything if nobody is guarding Tillman (or Roddy, or Williams, or …), which is one reason the Grizzlies have settled for so many jumpers.
Which brings me to one more question. I presume Bismack Biyombo will not save the Grizzlies’ season; he’s a better lob threat than Tillman but his hands are brick-soft and he can’t shoot.
But can Memphis deal their way out of this, perhaps for the forward they coulda shoulda signed in free agency? They have a trade exception from the Brooks trade, likely will have an injury exception from Adams, and could turn Biyombo into a third one (his contract is interestingly for $5 million, not the veteran minimum, with only $1 million guaranteed, according to our Shams Charania. That could allow him to be dealt for $10.25 million in returning money at some point, or aggregated with other players like LaRavia or the little-used and lightly conditioned Kenneth Lofton Jr. for more).
Iko: It’s a close split, but Jackson has logged more minutes at center than at power forward, which is odd considering Memphis has been outplayed on both ends when he trots out at center. Not saying it’s entirely Jackson’s fault, his overall defense hasn’t been DPOY-esque but it’s been solid. When you watch, it’s occasional lapses of concentration from everyone. Maybe Biyombo means less Tillman or more traditional lineups but again, it’s Biyombo. That wasn’t on my bingo sheet.
Grizzlies fans might groan at this, but it might just be a focus issue. You’ll see a possession with Jackson screaming out coverages and making sure everyone is on the same page and then he gets called for defensive three seconds. Technically, their starting lineup is small ball given Tillman’s height, but Memphis likes to have him switch on the perimeter anyway with Jackson closer to the rim.
But he has to be better offensively. Jackson has already logged two games shooting less than 30 percent from the field and is missing a good chunk of makeable ones at the rim. We’ve come to accept his barrages to the rim because of his versatility and ability to open things for others but he’s going to be their second option every night until Morant returns. It also doesn’t help that he’s back to his fouling ways, amassing 20 over his last four outings. Foul trouble always throws the rhythm off.
What have you seen from Bane as the go-to guy? And on an unrelated note, do either Demar DeRozan or Zach LaVine make any sense down south?
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Hollinger: Defensive three call 13 seconds into the game last night! Just chillin’ in the paint. Not sure I’ve seen that before.
I don’t like the DeRozan fit, both in terms of exacerbating an already existing lack of shooting, and his age not fitting the Grizzlies timeline. The real thing Memphis needs, and has needed for a couple of years, is a good 6-foor-8 guy who can cross the threshold between 3 and 4. It’s no wonder they were allegedly willing to offer three firsts for OG Anunoby last year. That’s the player who makes the most sense with their full-strength roster, which is still the thing Memphis should optimize for long term.
That said … man, LaVine would be tempting. He’s been good this year, even as the Bulls have not been, and his shooting next to Bane’s would open acres of space for Morant. But that still leaves the Grizzlies as small and, by the way, extremely expensive. Memphis would likely have to send out Kennard, Williams, John Konchar, and one of Clarke or Adams as the salary match for him, in addition to whatever draft picks it took. The Grizzlies would end up $13 million over next year’s tax line with just 10 players under contract.
We should also point out that the Grizzlies have a draft pick war chest to go big if they want. They can trade four firsts of their own, plus three pick swaps and two swaps from Phoenix. I suspect enough other teams are intrigued by Williams that he could return some capital as well. Could Anunoby still be that player? Pascal Siakam? Heck, let’s dare to dream … Joel Embiid?
More realistically, however, November isn’t a great time to trade, and so I’m not sure a quick fix deal is out there that can get the Grizzlies through to Morant’s return. Circling all the way around to your question, Bane as a go-to guy has looked like a No. 2 guy pressed into service as the main option. He can shoot and his gravity opens space for others, but there’s a reason he’s not a full-time point guard. He, Smart and Jackson are all forced to operate at the outer limit of their skillsets due to the other absences and shortcomings.
So, what do we think here? I thought Memphis could limp along around .500 til Morant came back, but now they’re facing “must-win” games against the lowly Blazers. (I say “lowly’; Memphis needs to win both just to tie Portland in the standings.) Is this thing off the rails already?
Iko: I don’t think so, at least not yet. They definitely need to beat the Blazers, but I trust Jenkins to get things back on track. The Grizzlies starters have a positive net rating (as well as the lineup with Jackson at center sans Tillman) but it simply hasn’t been good enough. After the Jazz loss, he spoke about the need to “keep fighting and keep their spirit up” and how their starts to games have hurt them. Jenkins certainly isn’t the type to harp on moral victories but he’ll take anything at this point to get Memphis their first win of the season.
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Thanks for doing this, John.
Hollinger: Thank you, Kelly! I don’t think it’s off the rails yet, either, but in a West where 11 teams think they’re making the playoffs and only eight get in, they’re in danger of losing contact with the herd. An 0-5 start is manageable; if they leave Portland 0-7, that’s a different story.
Before we go, a reminder: We started the year 10-15 in 2013-14 when I was working for the Grizz, and some of the losses didn’t look too different from the Utah game last night. That team still ended up winning 50 games. The NBA season gives you a lot of time to get well. If the Grizzlies can split the next 20 games before Morant returns, they still might have enough to make a run.
(Photo: Petre Thomas / USA Today)