Colts predictions at NFL midseason: Is Shaq Leonard’s time in Indy coming to an end?

The Indianapolis Colts should consider changing their name to the Indianapolis Chameleons because that’s what they’ve been, a team constantly having to change and shift throughout a season filled with twists and turns.

This year was supposed to be the Anthony Richardson show, and for a few quarters against the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams, the No. 4 pick looked like a franchise QB. His performance helped the team overachieve early, but an AC joint sprain he sustained in Week 5 spelled the end of his rookie season. Richardson recently underwent season-ending shoulder surgery and his pairing with star running back Jonathan Taylor, who missed the first four games while on the physically unable to perform list due to an ankle injury, lasted just one play.

Richardson’s absence has altered the trajectory of Indianapolis’ season, with backup Gardner Minshew taking the reins, but the Colts still find themselves in the playoff hunt at 4-5. As they prepare to face the New England Patriots in Germany on Sunday, here are five bold predictions for the second half of Indianapolis’ season.

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Jonathan Taylor will post a career low in rushing yards

Taylor is two years removed from being the NFL’s rushing champ and having arguably the greatest season of any running back in Colts history. He took a step back last year due to a nagging right ankle injury that limited him to a career-low 861 rushing yards in 11 games. Taylor’s ankle injury carried over to the start of this season, but now that he’s fully healthy, I still wouldn’t expect him to take a superstar leap over the last eight games. Taylor has 254 rushing yards and he’s averaging a career-low 50.8 yards per game. If he continues at this pace, he’d finish with just 660 yards.

Taylor doesn’t have a 100-yard rushing game this season, and while I expect him to clear that mark in at least one of the remaining games, Zack Moss is another big factor to keep in mind. Moss is the NFL’s second-leading rusher (615 yards) and in a season that likely doesn’t have a Super Bowl at the end of it for the Colts, they have no reason to pile carries on Taylor. The 24-year-old inked a three-year, $42 million extension, so it would be wise to keep him as fresh as possible for the 2024 season alongside a healthy Richardson.

Bonus prediction! Taylor is the more talented and explosive player, but given Moss’ hot start and steady role in the offense, my money is on Moss to finish as the Colts’ leading rusher.

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Zaire Franklin will lead the NFL in tackles and break his own record

The NFL’s leading tackler entering Week 9? Franklin. The NFL’s leading tackler after Week 9? Franklin. The most impressive part: Franklin didn’t play in Week 9, missing the first game of his six-year NFL career due to a knee injury. Colts defensive coordinator Gus Bradley said Franklin was close to playing against the Carolina Panthers, so if he returns this week against the Patriots, he’ll have a chance to remain the league leader while also trying to make history.

Franklin set the Colts’ single-season combined tackles record with 167 in 2023. The former seventh-round pick is at 102, and if he keeps up his pace, he’ll double that number with 204 tackles by the end of the season. That would shatter last year’s team record and put him close to Hardy Nickerson’s unofficial all-time record (214).

.@Colts LB @ZiggySmalls_ is on a historic pace halfway through 2023: https://t.co/ZyJyncuHEa pic.twitter.com/MuRPUzkuqO

— JJ Stankevitz (@JJStankevitz) November 3, 2023

The Colts will have multiple Pro Bowlers

Franklin’s Pro Bowl case has already been made, which would be the first selection of his career. But there are more Colts deserving of consideration at the midway point of the season.

DeForest Buckner might have the best case of them all. The 29-year-old has been dominant throughout the 2023 campaign, already tying his career high with two forced fumbles, plus five sacks, nine QB hits and six tackles for loss. Buckner even scored a touchdown on a 26-yard fumble recovery in the season opener and terrorized No. 1 pick Bryce Young with a sack and two pass breakups last week. The two-time All-Pro has drawn more double-teams with starting nose tackle Grover Stewart serving a PED suspension, yet has still found a way to consistently wreak havoc.

For 50 seconds we thought there was monsters on the world. pic.twitter.com/mEHfa2RrFb

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) November 7, 2023

“When you see plays like that, it forces you to pause and just realize how grateful and appreciative you are of his play,” Bradley said. “He’s a guy you can count on, and sometimes you’re working so much to develop the other guys that you forget about the guys who are doing their job day in and day out.”

Buckner’s stout performance up front went hand in hand with cornerback Kenny Moore II’s historic outing on the backend against the Panthers. Moore became the first player in Colts history with two pick sixes in the same game and accounted for 115 return yards.

The 28-year-old struggled in Bradley’s scheme last year, failing to snag at least one interception in a full season for the first time in his career, but he’s bounced back tremendously and could be in line for his second Pro Bowl appearance. Moore has three INTs, 1.5 sacks and a career-high seven tackles for loss this year. He’s also limiting opposing QBs to a 70.8 passer rating when targeting receivers he’s covering, per Pro Football Reference, which would be the lowest mark of Moore’s seven-year career.

Outside of my top three Pro Bowl candidates, left guard Quenton Nelson — the Colts’ lone Pro Bowler from last year — is playing better this year and has a chance to extend his franchise record to six straight Pro Bowl nods to begin his career. Matt Gay became the first NFL kicker to boot four 50-plus-yard field goals in the same game in a Week 3 overtime win at Baltimore, and given the offense’s limitations with Minshew at the helm, Gay will likely get more chances to earn his second Pro Bowl honor.

Shaq Leonard will play his last game for the Colts

Leonard and the Colts parting ways seemed unfathomable in 2021, when Leonard earned his third first-team All-Pro selection and fourth All-Pro nod overall. However, two years and two back surgeries later, and Leonard has hardly been the same player. Last year, he was limited to three games, but he returned fully healthy this year and has played in every game so far except for one due to a groin injury — but in a significantly diminished role. He’s been vocal about his frustration in recent weeks while lobbying for more playing time, though that approach hasn’t led to the results he desires.

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Shaq Leonard wants bigger role in Colts' struggling defense, but Indy hasn't given it to him

The Colts don’t appear to be motivated to get him on the field. Even with Franklin sidelined last week, the Colts opted for second-year pro Segun Olubi to start in Franklin’s place at middle linebacker. That decision wasn’t exactly an eyebrow-raiser since Leonard is a weakside linebacker. The eye-opening part was that even though the Colts entered Week 9 having given up at least 37 points in three straight games and without their top linebacker, they still didn’t think giving Leonard more snaps would help them win. Indianapolis relied on Olubi and E.J. Speed while Leonard played just 55 percent of the defensive snaps, his second-lowest mark of the season. Excluding last year when he was limited to three games, Leonard is playing 70 percent of the defensive snaps this year, which would be a career low.

That’s simply not a large enough role to justify keeping Leonard around on a hefty salary. The 28-year-old has three years and $46.8 million left on his contract, but the Colts could release him after the season to save $12.1 million in cap space with just an $8 million cap hit in 2024. Leonard hasn’t spoken about his future with the franchise yet, but this feels like the beginning of the end.

The Colts will finish 7-10

I originally predicted the Colts would go 5-12 under the assumption that Richardson would make it through a very up-and-down rookie season. To Richardson’s credit, he scored seven total TDs during his 173 offensive snaps, and his floor appeared to be much higher than I anticipated to help Indianapolis get off to a promising start.

The Colts were 2-2 before Richardson went down in Week 5, a game in which Minshew stepped in to help them move to 3-2. The team has come back down to earth since then with three losses in its last four games, but at 4-5, it has already matched its win total from 2022.

Last year, the Colts ended their season on a seven-game losing streak under interim coach Jeff Saturday. I don’t envision the Colts experiencing déjà vu and completely bottoming out under Shane Steichen, who’s helped his team be competitive in every game except for one (a 37-20 loss at Jacksonville in Week 6).

Indianapolis also doesn’t have a tough remaining schedule with Sunday’s game against the Patriots and matchups with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Las Vegas Raiders and Texans to come, so three more victories are feasible. The downside to winning is draft positioning, but Indianapolis will still have the opportunity to select a talented player if it lands in the top 12-15 of the draft order.

(Photo: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)

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