2018 Vikings season preview: Let the latest Super Bowl chase begin

The 2018 Vikings season has officially arrived, and we’re excited to bring you a full slate of coverage throughout the year.

Our writing team of Chad Graff, Jon Krawczynski, Arif Hasan and Sage Rosenfels will combine to provide daily coverage during the season for a team that once again has Super Bowl aspirations. If you still haven’t subscribed, now is as good a time as any.

To formally kick off the regular-season coverage, those four got together to answer your questions about the year ahead, pick out the biggest games on the schedule and make their predictions for how it all end up. Our season preview is below. Enjoy.

The offense

The Vikings have a new offensive coordinator, a new QB, and an offensive line in flux. It appears to be a difficult schedule at the beginning of the season. How long do you think it will take the offense to “gel”?

— Kyle F.

Graff: You’re right about all of that, and it’s amazing to think that it’s still not entirely clear what the offensive line will look like five days before the season opens. So, yes, it will take time for the Vikings’ offense to get in a groove. And it’s hard to find a comparable for this situation because established starting quarterbacks don’t typically leave for a new team in free agency where they join a new offensive coordinator. But I think after about five weeks, a chemistry does start to develop. In Alex Smith’s first season with Pederson as offensive coordinator, his completion percentage after Week 6 was seven points higher than the first six games, and his touchdowns per game increased 0.3. In Matt Ryan’s first season with Kyle Shanahan, his completion percentage was three points higher the final 11 games than it was the first five and his touchdowns per game increased 0.2. Again, it’s hard to find perfect comparisons for the Vikings’ offense this season. But give it a few weeks, and they should start to gel.

Has Dalvin Cook fully recovered from his season-ending injury?

— Claude T.

Krawczynski: We didn’t get to see much of Cook in the preseason, with just a few plays in Week 3 as the only game action he got while working his way back from the knee injury suffered last October. In the absence of game reps, you have to look to practice to get at least clues for how things are going. From that perspective, he’s looked great. Quick, strong, explosive, Cook has been making cuts and bursting through holes all August. I think it’s still reasonable to expect some rust early in the season (much like what we saw from Latavius Murray early last year). But I don’t think it will take long for him to get back because from a physical standpoint, thanks to his attitude in rehab and the Vikings’ superb medical staff led by head athletic trainer Eric Sugarman, there should be no qualms about the health of his knee going into Week 1.

How do you expect the carries per game to be distributed between Cook & Murray? I’m guessing Murray will be more heavily involved early on to help ease Cook’s transition back into regular season games.

— Pete B.

Graff: I think you’re right on here. I wouldn’t say the Vikings are going to “ease” Cook in, because he’ll still be the starter and the go-to back. But it won’t be surprising if Murray is used a bit more early as Cook returns to action. Even though he had a great training camp, let’s not forget that Cook has only carried the ball in a game twice (his lone preseason game) since suffering the knee injury 11 months ago. But if Cook shows he can handle it, look for Cook to get the bulk of the carries as the season progresses.

Krawczynski: I would think Murray will share plenty of the load early. He has looked sharp in the preseason, light years ahead of where he was last season when he missed all of the offseason while rehabbing an ankle injury. Murray looked sluggish in the early going last season, a step slow while knocking the rust off. But the Tay Train picked up steam as the season went on and combined with Jerick McKinnon to mitigate the loss of Cook. If Cook does show a little bit of stiffness in his first few weeks, Murray seems more than ready to step in and help. But over the long haul, Cook has the dynamic qualities every team needs. This will be his job once he is back up to speed.

Dalvin Cook returns after an electric start to 2017 was cut short by injury. If he picks up where he left off, the Vikings will have a huge extra asset. (Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn/USA TODAY Sports)

Outside of Diggs and Thielen, what can we expect from the WR group?

— Carson S.

Graff: I think this is one of the biggest questions facing the Vikings — and likely not one we expected at the beginning of training camp. But Laquon Treadwell slowed from his strong start in camp, and Brandon Zylstra and Stacy Coley struggled to stay healthy. Add it all together and you’ve got a lot of uncertainty behind one of the best receiving duos in the league. Of course, all eyes are on Treadwell. He has said he feels better, coaches have said he looks better, and Kirk Cousins has said he likes throwing to Treadwell. But it’s time for Treadwell to show that after recording just 215 yards his first two seasons.

Rosenfels: In a strange dichotomy, you could say the Vikings have one of the best wide receiver combinations in the NFL, but have one of the weakest backup scenarios as well. Diggs and Thielen are two of the most consistently productive players in the league, yet if one of them goes down with an injury, the cast behind them has very little experience.

Treadwell did have a nice preseason and training camp, but the fact that he was a first-round draft pick and has yet to show the talent he exuded at Ole Miss is alarming at this point. Usually, receivers can play and excel faster than other positions because pure athleticism and talent are more important than a deep knowledge of offensive and defensive schemes.

Coley and Zylstra are both very intriguing prospects. I love young wide receivers who have a history of quality production. Sometimes, 40-yard dash times, height and weight, and vertical jump are overly used to judge football players, especially receiver. Give me some guys who simply know how to read defenses, run great routes, can get separation versus man coverage, and produce. Both Coley and Zylstra have been extremely productive when they’ve been on the field. Coley is second at the University of Miami in career catches (that’s damn impressive), and Zylstra had over 1,600 receiving yards in the CFL last year. These two young men need to soak up as much knowledge from Diggs and Thielen because they could very well be a key to the Vikings’ season, even if almost nobody knows who they are at this moment.

Keenum’s mobility and Shurmur’s play calling seem to have masked some pass protection issues last year. How does a seemingly worse offensive line look ahead of a less mobile QB and how can DeFillippo’s play calling help cover for them?

— Drew M.

Hasan: There are a number of ways one can cover for a worrisome offensive line and an immobile quarterback, and we even saw some of those ways deployed by Philadelphia after Jason Peters and Carson Wentz went down. The Eagles, by far, became the most play-action-heavy team in the league — allowing the threat of their run game to slow down the pass rush and open up shots deep downfield. That was despite the fact that the Eagles didn’t have the threat at running back that the Vikings do now.

They’ve also created moving pockets — something we traditionally associate with athletic quarterbacks but can be done well by quarterbacks with some limited mobility. Failing that, switching to a quick-throw/quick-drop system can get the ball out before defensive linemen can get to the quarterback.

All of those potential solutions have their drawbacks, particularly if they become predictable, but some combination of them have protected quarterbacks in the past.

How does the Cousins’ signing affect the future? If the Vikings don’t win this year, how much money is left to hang onto Barr and other key defensive players? I viewed the Cousins’ signing as a move to try to win the SB in the next year or two while that defense is still there, after that it may become a detriment, do you feel that is accurate?

— Christopher F.

Hasan: The good news is that if you’re willing to give a two-year leash to Kirk Cousins, you only have to worry about him for one more year after that. His historic, fully-guaranteed contract is gamed in part by the fact that it’s only three years, which is how long most contract guarantees last for coveted free agents in the first place.

Should the Vikings “window” close because of how expensive the contract is, they can jettison it soon after it becomes apparent that it’s a problem.

That said, the Vikings have very little available cap room for the 2019 season, with OverTheCap projecting the Vikings with the third-lowest amount of room with only $8 million of space — most of which will need to be allocated to drafted rookies. That makes it tough to potentially re-sign Sheldon Richardson or extend Anthony Barr long-term.

They can create room in other ways, like shedding Trae Waynes or Kyle Rudolph’s contract (or renegotiating those contracts) as neither of those players have that money guaranteed. They could also take a look at Riley Reiff or Mike Remmers’ contract for more space, but they get dangerously close to penny-pinching in that scenario.

Money can be moved around and the “hard” cap of the NFL is never as hard as it’s portrayed, but Cousins’ contract does create some challenges. I don’t think those challenges are enough for us to say that it cripples the team long-term if he doesn’t work out, but it does make things tougher.

How Kirk Cousins performs — and how well the line protects him — are two of the biggest questions facing the team in 2018. (Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports)

The defense

I can’t get over how badly the Eagles dismantled our Defense in the playoffs – with their backup QB! They put on a clinic and took “league leading” D-corps to school.

— Tom D.

Graff: Yes, the Vikings were outplayed and outcoached in the NFC championship game. Yes, a backup quarterback made Mike Zimmer’s defense look silly. But to look at it a different way: The Super Bowl champs led by a Super Bowl MVP quarterback were the only team in the NFC better than the Vikings. The Vikings then re-tooled and re-schemed, hired the coach that groomed that backup-turned-MVP quarterback, and signed a proven NFL starting quarterback to put an end to their turnstile at the most important position. Sure, it’s going to be difficult for the Vikings’ defense to be ranked No. 1 again in both yards against and points against. But it’s also one still with one of the best defensive lines in the league, a linebacker core led by Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks, and a secondary that boasts arguably the game’s best cornerback and best safety. It shouldn’t be all doom and gloom because of one game last season.

How realistic is it that the Vikings go to a lineup that has Iloka, Sendejo, and Smith on the field at the same time, particularly on third down?

— Al S.

Hasan: It’s certainly realistic — Zimmer has been talking about different ways to field third-down defenses for some time, and has already experimented with playing George Iloka in a hybrid linebacker role. As for what it could mean for the linebackers and other personnel, it really depends on what the Vikings have planned for that week and what the distance is to convert. On third and long, it could simply mean taking a defensive tackle off the field and fielding a “3-3-5” defense with Anthony Barr or Eric Kendricks blitzing up the middle or off the edge. On third and medium, one could see a “base” defense with Iloka replacing Gedeon for better coverage against tight ends but still better run support than a traditional nickel defense might offer. One could even see Iloka replacing a cornerback on third and short to bolster run support.

Rosenfels: I’m really looking forward to seeing if Zimmer and defensive coordinator George Edwards do anything creative now that they have three starting-caliber safeties on the roster. During my days with the Miami Dolphins in the early 2000s, the New England Patriots were just starting their run of dominance in the AFC East. At that time, they had three really good safeties on their roster. Lawyer Milloy, Tebucky Jones, and Victor Green were all considered starters. Bill Belichick, who wasn’t yet known as the genius he is today, played all three for much of the game. Jones, who was 6-foot-2 and 220 pounds, was the biggest athlete of the group. To maximize the use of his talent, Belichick played all three safeties, usually using Jones as a smaller linebacker.

Basically, the Patriots played “nickel” defense throughout the season. Jones’ rare ability to take on offensive lineman and tackle like a linebacker, yet cover slot receivers allowed for this to occur.

I see George Iloka’s rare size and athleticism combination in a similar way. He is big (6-4, 225) and has that “tweener” size to play a mix of linebacker and safety. I don’t see him as a guy that could cover a slot receiver, but luckily Harrison Smith is one of the few safeties that can do everything.

Zimmer hasn’t been a really creative defensive coach when it comes to using unique personnel combinations or drawing up confusing blitzes. He generally plays a lot of man-to-man, with Cover 4 as his preferred zone coverage. His most often used blitz has been the “double A-gap” scheme which continually confuses some offensive coaches despite its somewhat simplistic design. Will Zimmer and Edwards do something entirely new because of the surprise acquisition of Iloka? I doubt it, but both coaches may also be looking for an occasional changeup to their traditional style after the Eagles shredded them in the biggest game of last season.

If Mike Hughes busts out this year, is a trade of Waynes for a legit Offensive Linemen a real possibility? If Waynes continues to improve, would a blockbuster involving Rhodes a possibility??

— Shawn W.

Hasan: It’s unlikely that the Vikings execute a mid-season trade, and if they want to trade Waynes at the end of the season, they’d be doing it with the fifth-year option — effectively a one-year contract. They may end up getting more from the compensatory pick process than they would simply trading him on the last year of an expensive extension.

That said, nothing is outside the realm of possibility, and the Vikings have ended up with enviable depth at cornerback, in part because of what Hughes may be able to offer both in the slot and on the outside. They would also have to be comfortable with what Mackensie Alexander — who has improved this offseason — can do while also being prepared to buckle down for Holton Hill in case of an injury.

With Terence Newman’s retirement, the Vikings are no longer an embarrassment of riches when it comes to depth at the cornerback spot and may be more hesitant than before to trade Waynes (or Alexander) than they were before the season started.

They will almost certainly not trade Xavier Rhodes.

Anthony Barr still doesn’t have a contract beyond this season. The three-time Pro Bowl linebacker has played in every game the past two years. (Credit: Brad Rempel/USA TODAY Sports)

What are the odds that they do an extension in-season with Barr? And if it doesn’t happen, is the lack of a deal something that will have an effect on him and/or the team?

— David I.

Hasan: The Vikings have rarely done big-money extensions during the season, instead extending role players by a year or so. Their big re-signings are typically done in the year before their contract is up or as they nearly hit the deadline in free agency, like with Everson Griffen and Adam Thielen.

Some players and agents prefer the security of an earlier contract deal, while others are willing to chance more money on the performance of their contract year. Either way, the team shouldn’t be too impacted by the lack of a deal.

There’s the additional wild card of Barr’s edge-rushing potential — which, if realized, could result in a big payday for Barr that wouldn’t be reflected by any current contract offer he may or may not have from the Vikings. Given how much additional money edge rushers make, that variable looms large in contract talks.

All of this is to say that there’s a lot that goes into contract negotiations aside from how one feels about the team, and those probably matter more to this current situation than anything else.

Of the established stars on defense (Hunter, Griffen, Joseph, Richardson, Kendricks, Barr, Rhodes, Smith) who do you see taking the biggest leap? I think Hunter is the obvious answer but wondering if there is anyone else who jumps out. 

— Joseph G.

Krawczynski: Great question. I agree that Danielle Hunter is the obvious choice. He’s looked like a monster at times during the preseason and is poised to break out after signing the big extension. If we take him out of the equation, I’m going to go with Eric Kendricks. I know he’s already building a good reputation, but I do think he’s overlooked in a star-studded defense filled with playmakers like Griffen, Rhodes and Harrison Smith. Even Barr may have shown more splashy plays to this point, but Kendricks is so freakin’ good. He can play the run and the pass. He is a sure tackler and relentless pursuer of the ball. He’s incredibly smart and is rarely in the wrong place. I think he’s looked great this preseason and is ready to vault into the elite conversation.

I’m curious of your thoughts on the chicken/egg scenario with the defensive line and the secondary. Do you think, given talent added to both groups, we’ll see a bigger increase in sacks or interceptions this year?

— Shane K.

Krawczynski: I can tell you what I think the Vikings coaches would prefer. They would take the interceptions in a heartbeat. One thing this defense has been mediocre at is forcing turnovers.

They were tied for 13th in the league with 14 interceptions as a team last year and were tied for 28th with just five fumbles recovered. They were tied for 17th in the league for sacks, but Zimmer has never been totally enamored with that statistic, preferring to focus on pressures and points allowed. If this defense can start turning teams over and giving its offense a short field, it goes from great to incredible.

The big picture

What’s most likely to be our semi-annual “oh my god, this is how it happens” moment? What’s the one thing that’ll do us in and drag us down to a 6-10 record?

— Mitchel A.

Graff: I see we’re not entering the season loaded with optimism, Mitchel A. But, all right, I’ll play along. If this season goes off the rails and six wins becomes a reality, allow me to take you down this dark timeline to Week 5. The Vikings return to the site of the NFC championship game for a rematch against the Eagles with a 2-2 record after losing in Green Bay and Los Angeles. Brandin Cooks has just shredded the Vikings’ secondary on national television and Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh tormented Cousins all night as the Rams toyed with the Vikings’ O-line. Now back in Philly, the same script unfolds as NFC title night. The defense is torched by Doug Pederson’s offense for a second time and the Eagles’ defensive line rotates well all night and wears down the Vikings’ line for a second straight week. The Vikings enter Week 6 after consecutive blowout losses and the season unravels from there — just in time for Sam Bradford’s visit. (Hey, it’s a dark timeline, so in this one he’s still healthy and sends a message to the Vikings.) Losses follow to the Saints, Bears, Packers again, Patriots, Seahawks, and Lions. Hey, you asked.

Do you actually believe this is the year the Vikings can break through and reach the Super Bowl?

— Dustin M.

Krawczynski: As a native Minnesotan steeped in the tradition of Vikings disappointments, I don’t say this lightly: Yes, I do think they can do it this year. The schedule is tough, for sure, so they may not go 13-3 again this season. I think there is a chance they could be a little bit slow out of the gate while Cousins, John DeFilippo and the jumbled offensive line all work to get on the same page. But the defense should be dominant again, even better than last year. And if the offense can gradually improve as Pat Elflein comes back, Cook gets rolling and Cousins settles in, they have all the ingredients necessary to win multiple games in the postseason. That is clearly the expectation internally as well. Should be a fun year.

Don’t give up hope. (Credit: Joe Nicholson/USA TODAY Sports)

The most compelling games

Graff

At Green Bay, Week 2: Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to wait long to try to get revenge on the Vikings and Anthony Barr after the linebacker’s hit last season left him with a broken collarbone. Rodgers made his feelings on the hit known and claimed on Conan O’Brien’s show that Barr flipped him off and gave the ‘suck-it’ sign. Rodgers seems to play his best with the most on the line. Matchups between he and Zimmer’s defense are always appointment viewing. But the rivalry takes a step toward the bitter in this rematch, which will also provide an early measuring stick for where the premier teams in the NFC North stand.

At Philadelphia, Week 5: Seven days after the Minneapolis Miracle, the Vikings showed up to Lincoln Financial Field with optimism pouring over after the franchise’s first playoff win since 2009. They rode high into a matchup against a backup quarterback, favorites on the road in the NFC Championship game. Everyone knows how that ended. The passed-over quarterback shredded Zimmer’s defense and the offense was out of miracles in Case Keenum’s final game at the helm. Revenge won’t fully come for the Vikings without wins in the playoffs. But this game offers a first chance for the Vikings to put the feelings of Jan. 21 behind them.

New Orleans, Week 8: A primetime Minneapolis Miracle rematch was always going to be an intriguing one filled with flashbacks to arguably the greatest game in Vikings history. But now, given the Saints’ recent trade for Teddy Bridgewater, it also yields an incredible look at all that followed one of the strangest days in team history. Without Bridgewater’s fluke, gruesome knee injury in August 2016, Sam Bradford doesn’t come to the Vikings for a first-round pick that later helps the Eagles beat them in the NFC championship, Case Keenum doesn’t take them on an improbable 13-3 run and miracle throw, and the pursuit of Kirk Cousins the ensuing offseason doesn’t happen. Instead, Bridgewater will return to the stadium many thought he’d break in as the starting quarterback of a loaded team, as the backup behind a legend in Drew Brees who nearly broke the hearts of Vikings fans 10 months earlier. What a game this will be.

Hasan

At Philadelphia, Week 5: The matchup against the Eagles takes the top spot for every conceivable reason — the Vikings get a rematch against the team that took them out of the Super Bowl, the opportunity to likely play a healthy Carson Wentz, the quickly burgeoning rivalry between the two fanbases and, of course, the fact that both teams are the class of the NFC.

New Orleans, Week 8: The game against the Saints holds very similar stakes and also pits an incredibly talented team against Minnesota, where this time the Vikings are defending themselves from the challengers they put away instead of the other way around.

At Green Bay, Week 2: One could just as easily argue that the Patriots (Week 13) or Rams (Week 4) road games deserve a spot on the list, but the first game against the Packers on the road holds enough intrigue and excitement to take the final slot. Rivalries aside, it’s the first divisional game we see with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ new-look defense under Mike Pettine. The Packers should be many times more capable this time around.

Krawczynski

San Francisco, Week 1: It’s an important tone-setter. The Vikings head into the season with massive expectations and this is a home game against an up-and-coming team. Stub your toe and it could be a treacherous first four games. Get a quality win and the confidence should build quickly.

At Green Bay, Week 2: The Aaron Rodgers Revenge Game. The $100 million man is going to be out for blood after Barr broke his collarbone last season. So the Vikings will have to be ready for a big haymaker from their division rivals.

At New England, Week 13: By this time, all the wrinkles in the offense should be ironed out and the Vikings should be steamrolling toward the playoffs. A win in Foxborough would be a major statement.

The Vikings will win the Super Bowl if …

Graff: … the defense is again one of the top three in the NFL (a task harder than many here figure), the offensive line protects Cousins, the quarterback is efficient on third down and avoids turnovers, Dalvin Cook builds on the only four NFL games of his career with a healthy and productive sophomore season, and they don’t have to go to Philadelphia in January.

Hasan: … the trenches stay healthy. They’ve got one of the most talented rosters in the NFL, but have dangerously thin depth on the offensive and defensive lines. They can weather the storm elsewhere in many respects, but on the lines, things can be dangerous. With health at those two position areas, they’ll still have a top-three defense and a top-10 offense.

Krawczynski: … if Elflein can come back and solidify the offensive line and Cousins can prove that he’s capable of winning the big one. For all of the great stats he put up with a flawed Washington team, the wins didn’t follow. If he can get his regular-season success to translate to the playoffs, the Vikings will be one of the teams to beat come January.

Rosenfels: … they can answer their offensive line questions. Every NFL team should be concerned about their offensive line. Even the Eagles and Cowboys, who many consider to have the best lines in football, must worry because injuries can quickly decimate a line, thus ending hopes of a successful season.

The Vikings line is their greatest question mark. It was a strength in 2017, especially when it came to running the football. If they can repeat that effort, the addition of Kirk Cousins’ big arm could make the play-action game deadly. Plus, a good running game creates one-on-one matchups on the outside with Thielen and Diggs, something they could easily exploit all year.

The offensive line, more than a top-ranked defense and a new expensive quarterback, will decide the Vikings’ fate.

Season predictions

Graff: 10-6, but stuck as wild-card participants after the Packers win the division. A playoff victory in the wild-card round offers hope of a deep run, but that ends with a loss in the divisional round.

Hasan: 11-5. Vegas has the Vikings at roughly 10.5 wins, a likely combination of regression to the mean, injury luck and a difficult schedule. Those are all good reasons, though it makes sense to take the over because their defense should still find ways to get better despite benefiting from injury luck last year — the additions of Hughes, Richardson and Iloka are compelling.

Krawczynski: I think the Vikings will go 12-4 and reach the Super Bowl for the first time in my lifetime. I think there could be a stumble or two early that keeps them from going 13-3 or 14-2. But they’re still the most talented team — top to bottom — in the NFC North and should win the division, Aaron Rodgers or no Aaron Rodgers. It’s also a roster that is built to win in the playoffs, with a strong running game, an intelligent quarterback and a relentless defense. They also have the experience that came from last year’s push to the NFC title game, and the bitterness of getting blown out by the Eagles, to use as fuel for their run. This is their year. And yes, I know how weird it sounds to say that.

Rosenfels: I am deeply concerned with the Vikings’ schedule. I can count between seven and 10 games against teams that could easily be in the playoffs this year. As I said earlier, the Vikings had a number of things go their way last year. The NFL has a strange way of humbling a team and its fanbase. If the Vikings don’t get off to a fast start, and if they have a few more injuries along their O-line, this could be one that doesn’t make the playoffs.

If things go their way and they win a enough games to get into the playoffs, I still see the Rams, Saints and Eagles as tough opponents to beat, especially if they have to play them on the road.

My final prediction is that the Vikings will get to 10 wins, but lose in the playoffs in the wild card or divisional round.

(Top image: Joe Robbins/Getty Images)