James Ward-Prowse has been a brilliant signing for West Ham – but he compounds their problems

At the StatsBomb conference in 2021, Ian Graham, then Liverpool’s head of research, gave a talk. It was about transfers, and why many of them fail.

He outlined seven issues why:

• The new player is worse than the one they replace
• They are not as good as first thought
• They do not fit the team’s style
• They are played out of position
• The manager does not like/use the player
• They have fitness issues
• They have personal issues

Even with a 90 per cent chance of each of those not occurring, there is still just a 53 per cent chance of the transfer being successful.

But James Ward-Prowse’s move in the summer from Southampton to West Ham was a transfer that nobody expected to fail. His early season success, creating 46 chances and assisting nine times in his first 16 West Ham games across all competitions (the most of a player at a Premier League club), can be explained through Graham’s categories.

Ward-Prowse was half the Declan Rice replacement, bought to add energy in a box-to-box profile and end product alongside defensive midfielder Edson Alvarez. There are few midfielders better than Rice in Europe, but Ward-Prowse’s creative output shows he is already meeting expectations.

How about style? Last season, 40.5 per cent of West Ham’s league goals were from set pieces — only Brentford scored a higher share of goals from such situations. For a good set-piece team to buy the best taker in the division made perfect sense.

Ward-Prowse’s technique is unique, most notable when he takes direct free kicks (he is yet to score one this season, but will equal David Beckham’s Premier League record when he does), but he strikes crossed set pieces the same: a run-up at a wider angle than most, hunched as he strikes, followed by a swift pulling away of his left (non-kicking) foot, to make space for his right (kicking) foot to land. The result: whip, dip and bend.

Since 2018-19, Ward-Prowse has been the best in the Premier League for set-piece chances created (189), assists (19) and expected assists (16.4). He delivers.

Head coach David Moyes likes him, describing his leadership qualities as a “huge plus”; Ward-Prowse ranks fifth for minutes played in all competitions, and has started 15 of West Ham’s 18 games, with no team-mate having started more. He captained West Ham in the 3-2 defeat to Brentford.

Fitness issues? Ward-Prowse has played the most minutes of any Premier League player since the start of 2019-20.

Nottingham Forest head coach Steve Cooper said afterwards that Ward-Prowse’s set-piece delivery is “as good as there is”. Moyes was even more glowing: “Let’s be fair, he is world class at his deliveries,” he said afterwards. Ward-Prowse has already assisted five different team-mates from set pieces, with four inswinging corners and three outswingers.

Against Forest, the near-post delivery he whipped for Bowen — just 43 seconds after the game had restarted after Forest had gone 2-1 up — was reminiscent of the inswinger he assisted Tomas Soucek with against TSC Backa Topola. The outswinger for Soucek, which gave West Ham a first league win since September, was just like the ones for Nayef Aguerd and Kurt Zouma against Chelsea and Luton Town.

Comparing West Ham’s per-game output to the past five seasons, this campaign is their best for the proportion of corners leading to shots (28.8 per cent), and it is taking them just 14.8 corners to score, their most efficient rate in that period.

In many ways, Ward-Prowse was the perfect West Ham signing, but there’s one downside: he compounds their problems.

In open play this season, he ranks below the Premier League central midfielder average for passing accuracy, progressive passing and progressive carrying, as well as tackling and defensive duel success.

Against Forest, his best moments came in midfield-third regains when he could launch counter-attacks or join in with them — not the primary skill set needed against compact opposition: the ability to play or receive midfield splitting passes, combine with a full-back/winger or lock-pick a defence with a dribble. Twenty-three of his 28 chances created and four of his five Premier League assists have been from set pieces.

Ward-Prowse has the best goal/assist return of West Ham’s midfielders, but also the most specific and unique profile. Soucek is better in both boxes than him (aided by Ward-Prowse’s delivery in the opposition box), and can operate as a box-crashing No 10 or a ball-winner deeper downfield.

Lucas Paqueta and Mohammed Kudus are more positionally versatile, capable of playing centrally or out wide, have better press resistance and are better dribblers. Alvarez’s positional discipline is superior, and his distribution against a mid-block is more varied, precise and incisive.

West Ham struggled to control the midfield against a Nottingham Forest team that came into the game with the most Premier League away losses since the start of last season (17) and who had failed to score in more away games than any team in that run (13).

Ward-Prowse had the most touches of any West Ham player against Forest (91) but was overly safe in possession — Paqueta, Alvarez and Soucek all had a higher proportion of their passes go forward. Paqueta and Kudus made more ball recoveries than him, and Soucek and Alvarez made more clearances.

Moyes tried to evolve West Ham into a possession-based side at the start of last season, sensibly abandoned it and reverted to defence-first performances, which brought European glory. He has again faced critique for stubbornness and tactical predictability this season. “We’re trying to change a little bit how we play,” Moyes said afterwards, adding, “I don’t want to lose that toughness and that ‘hard to play against’. And sometimes, you know, you have to win it — I don’t know if I would use the word ‘ugly’ — in other ways.”

For West Ham to control games, Ward-Prowse is not the right type of midfielder, and it is the reason that Gareth Southgate overlooks him for England, despite a lack of creative depth in that role/position. He has won just 11 caps since his senior debut six and a half years ago.

That seems to be mutually beneficial, though. Moyes spoke afterwards about West Ham trying to be competitive in three competitions (Premier League, Europa League and Carabao Cup) and within knockout competitions, set pieces become all the more important.

When asked if he was disappointed about Ward-Prowse’s exclusion from Southgate’s squad for the November qualifiers, Moyes responded, “I’m quite pleased because he’s going to get a bit of rest this week.”

Ward-Prowse demonstrates his unique technique (Gaspafotos/MB Media/Getty Images)

He is simultaneously one of the best players in the league (at his skill set) and also a luxury player. A midfield diamond, with Ward-Prowse at the top or on the side, would be the best way to accommodate him, but almost every current manager likes a midfield three.

Approval or not of his (and West Ham’s) style ultimately comes down to how anyone wants football to be played. Ultimately, he spent over a decade at Southampton as a senior player, had no buyers after they recorded five consecutive bottom-half finishes, and only left the club after relegation.

Ward-Prowse is evidence that the modern central midfielder, more than ever, has to be an all-rounder rather than a specialist, yet he guarantees a level of creativity that so many managers crave. A footballing paradox.

(Top photo: Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images)