Welcome to the Minnesota Twins’ offseason.
Free agents are gone, qualifying offers were extended and rejected, the 40-man roster shelves have been decluttered and restocked, and contract options converted to guaranteed salaries. Not to mention that the front office’s warning of lost television revenues leading to decreased payroll has taken some of the helium out of the fan base’s morale after the Twins’ first playoff run in two decades.
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And now the real action can start … well, whenever.
In the meantime, let’s open the mailbag and see what’s on your minds about a division-winning team with a lot of question marks on and off the field.
Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
With the payroll decreasing, is there realistically any chance the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray? — Rand C.
This extends my streak of answering at least one “will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray?” question in every mailbag column of 2023. My answer today is the same as it’s been every few weeks since spring training: Re-signing Gray is unlikely.
From the moment the Twins traded 2021 first-round pick Chase Petty for him in March 2022, the plan was to get two good seasons from Gray and then get a draft pick as compensation when he signed elsewhere as a free agent. Acquiring two years of a front-line starter by essentially swapping a 2021 late first-round pick for a 2024 late first-round pick is a nifty bit of front-office maneuvering.
Gray is 34 years old and widely expected to receive three- or four-year offers in excess of $20 million per season. The Athletic predicts a three-year, $72 million deal, and that’s at the low end of the spectrum compared to FanGraphs (three years, $78 million) and MLB Trade Rumors (four years, $90 million). There is no precedent for the Twins spending that much on a free-agent pitcher.
Michael Pineda’s two-year, $20 million contract signed in December 2019 was the largest the Twins have given to a free-agent pitcher in the Derek Falvey-led front office’s seven previous offseasons at the helm. Lowering the payroll makes the Twins marginally less likely to re-sign Gray, but only in the same sense that not buying a ticket makes you marginally less likely to win the lottery.
Your 2023 @officialBBWAA AL Cy Young Award finalists:
Gerrit Cole
Kevin Gausman
Sonny Gray pic.twitter.com/VAvWcJKU8L— MLB (@MLB) November 6, 2023
If the Twins trade Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco or another veteran, what will they target in return? — Sean M.
First and foremost, MLB or MLB-ready pitching, in the hopes of replacing Gray. And if there’s not a pitching fit they like, probably baseball’s universal trade currency: prospects.
In general, though, I’d caution against assuming Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco have big-time trade value given their ages, salaries and remaining team control.
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Kepler is a good but not great 30-year-old corner outfielder entering his final season of team control with a $10 million salary. Polanco is a very good but oft-injured 30-year-old second baseman with a $10.5 million salary for 2024 and a $12.5 million option or $2 million buyout for 2025. They carry positive/excess value relative to their contracts, but only so much and for only so long.
By comparison, Luis Arraez was a 26-year-old reigning batting champion with a $6 million salary and three seasons of team control when the Twins sent him to the Miami Marlins last offseason for Pablo López. Trading one or even both of Kepler and Polanco for a playoff-caliber starting pitcher would be a best-case scenario for the Twins.
Hypothetical: Where would the pre-2023 and post-2023 versions of Pablo López rank in this offseason’s free-agent class? — Jeremy B.
I do love hypothetical questions, but just to be clear: López was already under team control through 2024 when the Twins acquired him from the Marlins, so he wouldn’t be a free agent this offseason even if he hadn’t signed an extension in mid-April.
If you dropped the pre-trade version of López into this free-agent class, I’d put him in the 5-6-7 range among pitchers, which is where I ranked Gray, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez on my actual list. His biggest advantage would be age, since the then-27-year-old López would be seven years younger than Gray and four years younger than Montgomery/Rodriguez.
If you dropped the post-trade, Twins version of López into this free-agent class, at age 28 and fresh off a 234-strikeout breakout, there would be a legit case for him as the No. 2 pitcher and No. 2 overall free agent behind Shohei Ohtani. At the very least, I’d expect the post-2023, free-agent version of López to sign for a lot closer to $200 million than $100 million.
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Back in reality, where the Twins quickly and smartly signed López to the four-year, $73.5 million extension, he’ll be paid $8 million in 2024 and $21.5 million in each of 2025, 2026 and 2027.
Outside of Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, which Twins player is most likely to be traded this offseason? — Cory M.
Kyle Farmer, assuming he avoids being non-tendered by Friday’s deadline.
While his projected $6.6 million arbitration salary isn’t that much higher than last season’s $5.6 million, the Twins’ circumstances have changed since trading for Farmer this time last year. He was acquired as a placeholder shortstop, but then Carlos Correa re-signed. Farmer is a good role player, but the Twins are long on infield depth and short on spending room.
They’d prefer to keep Farmer. He was roughly a league-average bat (98 OPS+) in 369 plate appearances and started 20 or more games at shortstop, third base and second base. He was also well-liked in the clubhouse and served as a tough-love mentor for Edouard Julien. Farmer is an ideal backup, but for $6.6 million that’s a luxury item for a team expected to cut payroll.
Farmer won’t be a hot commodity at that salary, so it’s possible he simply gets non-tendered. But similar to Gio Urshela last offseason, they could be able to trade him for a low-level prospect.
Any surprises for the Twins with Rule 5 protections? — Andy S.
Two weeks ago, I ranked the 10 most prominent Twins prospects eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, and they ended up protecting four of the top five by adding them to the 40-man roster before Tuesday’s deadline. Emmanuel Rodriguez and Austin Martin were no-brainers to protect, and Yunior Severino and Jair Camargo were pretty easy choices as well.
“Surprise” might be overselling it slightly, but the Twins opted against adding DaShawn Keirsey, who ranked No. 3 on my list after a breakthrough season at age 26. Keirsey is one of the organization’s fastest players and a legit defensive center fielder, but prior to 2023, the 2018 fourth-round pick profiled as a glove-first MLB backup or Triple-A depth.
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Keirsey’s stock rose last season, as he hit .294/.366/.455 with 39 steals in 130 games between Double A and Triple A, homering 15 times after totaling 14 in his first four pro seasons. If that improvement at the plate is for real, he can be more than merely a prototypical backup outfielder, and right now at least, the Twins could use as much center-field depth as possible.
As a late bloomer, Keirsey lacks major upside, but a speedy left-handed hitter who can handle all three outfield spots and is coming off a quasi-breakout season in the high minors would seemingly be a popular Rule 5 target for teams in search of plug-and-play depth. Clearly the Twins aren’t believers, or at least are willing to risk losing him for nothing. We’ll find out on Dec. 6.
Michael Helman, Anthony Prato, Ricardo Olivar, Jose Salas and Aaron Sabato are the other prospects from my top-10 list who went unprotected.
Congrats to DaShawn Keirsey Jr. for being named a finalist for the @MiLB Defensive Play of the Year💨
On April 20th, Keirsey Jr. took flight in CF and robbed a HR for the @WindSurgeICT
Tune in at 8 p.m. ET on Oct. 2 on MLB Network to see if he wins some hardware 🏆#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/37FMNq4HKP
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) September 30, 2023
Where do you see Louie Varland on Opening Day? — Kent M.
If the season started today, Louie Varland would be the No. 5 starter by default, but by Opening Day he’s more likely to be either in the Triple-A rotation or the Twins’ bullpen.
He profiles as a mid-rotation starter, which has plenty of value, but the Twins know they’ll need more than five starters to get through any season and would likely prefer to have him No. 6 on the depth chart, similar to Bailey Ober last Opening Day. Varland’s raw stuff played up so much in the September bullpen that the Twins will also be tempted to simply make him a late-inning reliever.
Varland is a big piece in the 2024 plans, but he’s also a very flexible piece based on the Twins’ offseason moves.
Isn’t the obvious center field solution Max Kepler? — Kurt K.
That ship has sailed.
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Kepler hasn’t started a game in center field since 2021, hasn’t played center field regularly since 2019 and prefers to stay in right field. Beyond that, heading into his age-31 season, it’s not clear he would still be an asset starting in center field. Kepler remains an excellent right fielder, but his average sprint speed last season would have ranked No. 42 out of the 45 most-used center fielders in MLB.
Kepler being more willing to play center field for a few games at a time would have been helpful to the Twins in recent years, but Kepler as the primary center fielder is an idea well past its sell-by date.
Is Trevor Larnach still part of the Twins’ plans? — Brandon B.
Trevor Larnach is definitely in a tricky spot.
Matt Wallner passed him in the young(-ish) corner outfielder pecking order, so there’s nowhere for Larnach to play if Kepler stays. Kepler getting traded would open a spot in the outfield and remove a left-handed hitter from the lineup, but even in that scenario, it’s not clear the Twins would hand Larnach the job given his inconsistent, largely underwhelming production in the majors and minors.
Larnach has a first-round pick pedigree and looks the part of a middle-of-the-order slugger, but he’s hit just .222/.315/.385 with 223 strikeouts in 693 plate appearances for the Twins and will turn 27 years old before Opening Day. He’s been better at Triple A, but still not great, hitting .252/.366/.456 in 96 games. He crushes fastballs, but struggles too much versus off-speed stuff to see many.
There’s a relatively straightforward path to Larnach being in the Opening Day lineup, probably in left field, with Wallner in right field and Kepler on another team. He also has a minor-league option remaining, so Larnach could begin the season as Triple-A depth, whether or not Kepler is traded. It’s also possible the Twins will shop Larnach, although his trade value is likely modest at this point.
With the self-imposed payroll restrictions, do you see the Twins being more aggressive with their prospects? — Thad N.
Yes. It will require relying more on young, minimum-salaried players to fill key roles earlier than they might otherwise have been counted on to do so. And as we just saw with the Twins’ standout 2023 rookie class, that doesn’t have to be a bad thing. Given the right talent, getting younger and cheaper can be a positive, but it makes it harder to stockpile quality depth and lessens the margin for error.
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Their approach to filling the blank space atop the depth chart in center field, as well as the aforementioned Farmer situation, are prime examples of the ways in which the Twins’ shrinking payroll restricts roster-building options and points them toward younger, cheaper alternatives. If those younger/cheaper players are talented and ready to thrive, it’s great. But if they aren’t, there’s trouble.
Austin Martin with a HUGE go-ahead 3-run HR last night to help the @StPaulSaints get the WIN 💣
Martin was 2-3 with a HR, 4 RBI, and 2 runs scored
Both of his hits were 101+ mph 🚀#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/cB2QCFbvcS
— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) August 19, 2023
Which rookies could make an impact for the Twins in 2024? — Maya L.
It’ll be nearly impossible to get the same type of impact/value from rookies as last season, when Royce Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Varland graduated to MLB, but the Twins do have another wave of good prospects close to the big leagues.
I’d expect to see Twins top-10 prospects Martin, Brooks Lee and David Festa at Target Field next summer, and Rodriguez and Marco Raya could also force their way into the 2024 plans. Some other Twins prospects to watch as possible 2024 role players include Matt Canterino, Jordan Balazovic, Brent Headrick, Simeon Woods Richardson, Camargo, Severino, Keirsey and Helman.
Why didn’t Royce Lewis get any votes for Rookie of the Year? — Christian Z.
Lewis had a great and extremely encouraging rookie season, but he also played only 58 games and didn’t finish among the American League’s top five rookies in homers, RBIs, runs, steals, walks, hits, extra-base hits, total bases, times on base or wins above replacement.
While somewhat less so than other season-long awards, Rookie of the Year is based on quality and quantity. Lewis had more than enough of the former and not nearly enough of the latter. And that takes absolutely nothing away from his immense long-term upside.
Will the Twins have THC concession stands at Target Field? — Patrick K.
I can’t imagine they would, but here’s a little secret: Every concession stand can be a THC concession stand if you plan your day right.
Is the offseason long enough for you to miss Dan Hayes? — Ethan A.
It’s been a little over a month since we saw each other, and I’ll see Disco Danny in three weeks at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. I’m just hoping that’s long enough to keep my eyes from rolling completely out of my head when he starts his usual spiel about Brock Purdy being the next Tom Brady.
(Top photo of Pablo López: Brace Hemmelgarn / Minnesota Twins / Getty Images)
