If you were one of the lucky people who saved the Dallas Cowboys long enough to get a matchup against Tommy DeVito and the New York Giants (and more than 42 percent of you were able to do that), congratulations on all of your success.
If you still held off on Dallas and saved the Cowboys for this week’s game against the Carolina Panthers, congratulations will probably be in order for you again.
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Otherwise, Week 10 was a pretty brutal week for the remaining players in survivor pools as some of the most popular picks were all knocked out, including the second most popular pick, Cincinnati Bengals (picked in 32.5 percent of pools) and the third most popular pick, Buffalo Bills (picked in 5.5 percent of pools). Four of the top seven most popular picks in Week 10 were defeated.
That probably means your pool is getting rapidly thinned out heading into Week 11 of the 2023 NFL season.
These were the highest percentage picked teams through Week 10: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland and Dallas. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Cowboys, Dolphins or 49ers make for solid plays in Week 11.
NFL Week 11 Strategy
Renee Miller: I’ll be avoiding a lot of the big-name teams this week as good offenses meet better defenses for Buffalo, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Actually, can we even call Buffalo an elite team anymore? Being from upstate New York, I can completely understand rage-picking the Jets this week (but don’t do it). No, taking emotion and fandom out of these survivor decisions is best and relying on the data is best.
My main strategy this week, as the pool of available options diminishes, is to rule out games I know I don’t want to pick. One of those is Houston vs. Arizona. The Texans are decent home favorites, but the comeback of Kyler Murray makes this Cardinals team too dangerous to trust at this stage of the survivor pool season. Another one to avoid is Chargers at Packers. Green Bay’s offense hasn’t done much, but their pass defense is quietly one of the best in the league. LA could pull out the win on the strength of Austin Ekeler’s legs, but with receiving options Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett both on the injury report, it’s too risky to bet on them this week.
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After that, trust in the oddsmakers. There are several big lines, with Detroit, Miami, San Francisco and Dallas all 10-plus-point favorites. We’ll make the case below for a few available teams to people who used the most popular picks.
Adam Gretz: There are some huge favorites this week that I would love to pick, but with several of them (San Francisco, Buffalo, Miami, Dallas) already picked for us this season that definitely cuts down the list of potential options.
If you saved any of those teams, they all seem like relatively safe picks this week… except for maybe Buffalo. I am not sure how much you can trust them at this point.
That leaves some strong options like Detroit (against Chicago), Jacksonville (against Tennessee), Washington (against the New York Giants) and Houston (against Arizona) as relatively big favorites against some of the worst teams in the league.
I have been pretty consistent this season in trying to target the league’s bottom feeders and picking out my matchups based on those games. I am unsure how sold I am on Jacksonville this week (the offense has struggled the past two weeks and Tennessee can still cause some problems with its running game) or Washington (even against that Giants team). So, that has me narrowed down to Houston and Detroit.
And at that point I think I want to stick with the hot hand and the up-and-coming Texans.
NFL Survivor Week 11 chalk picks
Pick percentages from SurvivorGrid. Spreads from BetMGM.
| Team | Opponent | Pick % | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
vs. NY Giants | 33.4% | -10 | |
vs. Chiago | 21.5% | -10.5 | |
vs. Tennessee | 15.7% | -6.5 | |
vs. Tampa Bay | 8.6% | -11.5 | |
vs. Las Vegas | 7.3% | -13 |
Adam Gretz: Texans over Cardinals
I understand where Renee is coming from in wanting to avoid picking against the Cardinals because of the Kyler Murray factor, and that gave me some pause here. However, I still think this is a great matchup for the Texans for two big reasons.
The first is that even with Murray back in the lineup, the Cardinals still have one of the league’s worst defenses.
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The second is that the Texans still have C.J. Stroud.
Even though Murray played a strong game in his debut, I think Houston will offer much more resistance than the Atlanta Falcons did. The Falcons got off to a great start defensively, especially against the pass, but it has deteriorated over the past few weeks. It was a great matchup for him to ease back into game action.
While Stroud is the big story in Houston this season, the Texans’ defense has also made massive strides from where it was a year ago. They not only limit Murray and the Cardinals’ offense, but I think Stroud and the Texans’ offense light up the scoreboard against Arizona’s defense.
Renee Miller: Lions over Bears
The Lions are the sixth-highest-scoring team in the NFL and 10-point favorites over the Bears in Detroit this weekend. Chicago has played some good games and pulled out the win in Week 10 when they were my contrarian survivor pick, but they will be overmatched in this game. The Bears’ defense is a huge problem as they give up the sixth most points in the league, averaging two passing touchdowns per game allowed (third-highest rate).
Detroit can score either way with two healthy running backs who scored three touchdowns in Week 10 and receiver phenom Amon-Ra St. Brown averaging more than 100 receiving yards per game and boasting one of the best catch rates among wide receivers. Detroit’s potent offense plus Chicago’s porous defense equals an easy win for the Lions, who ought to be the most popular pick of the week.
NFL Survivor Week 11 contrarian picks
Adam Gretz: Broncos over Vikings
Maybe I am overly cynical. Maybe I am completely misguided. Maybe I am flat-out wrong, and everybody can come back next week and laugh at me. But for as awesome as the Joshua Dobbs story has been, and for as great as he has played in his first two weeks in Minnesota, the clock is inching toward midnight for this Cinderella story. He might very well end up being a good NFL quarterback, but I am not convinced he is this good and that so many other teams missed out on it, and I actually like this matchup for Denver.
Not only is it in Denver, but the Broncos’ defense has done an incredible 180 over the past four weeks. They are allowing 16.5 points per game over that stretch, and it is not like they were padding their stats against nobodies. Three of those games were against Patrick Mahomes (twice) and Josh Allen. They are playing significantly better, forcing turnovers, and Russell Wilson is quietly showing signs of the old Russell Wilson. I am riding with the Broncos here.
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Renee Miller: Commanders over Giants
I’m not as brave as Adam when it comes to contrarian picks, and someone has to mention the Commanders, who get the nod mostly because they get to take on the Giants. Washington might be the most popular pick of Week 11.
It’s a simple formula: the Giants score the fewest points in the league (11.8 per game) and allow the fourth-most points to opponents. Washington’s Sam Howell is one of only two QBs to throw for over 1000 yards in the last three games (Dak Prescott edges him out with 1,082 passing yards). Washington has a balanced offensive approach, with running back Brian Robinson Jr. also having a solid season.
The Giants can be beaten on the ground as they give up the second most rushing touchdowns per game (1.6) or through the air, where they are tied for second in yards per completion allowed (11.7). Overall, they allow the second most touchdowns per game (3.2). It’s not good when you can’t score and can’t stop your opponents from scoring. Washington should get the easy divisional victory at home in Week 11.
(Photo of C.J. Stroud: Dylan Buell / Getty Images)