People sometimes complain about stats and rules in the game of fantasy getting too far away from the game of football. PPR scoring is a big one since earning a fantasy point for catching a pass behind the line of scrimmage for no gain isn’t something that is valued on the field. I have a whole litany of ideal scoring changes – attributing interceptions to the guilty party, defensive points for fourth down stops and goal line stops, minus D/ST point for DPI or plus WR point per DPI, etc. Some leagues, including the super-popular Scott Fish Bowl – Scott is always willing to mix up the scoring, have adopted more realistic rewards like point per first down scoring.
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In other ways, however, the fantasy experience perfectly captures the NFL fan experience. Your fantasy squad drafted perfectly, missing all the first-round land mines and like the Detroit Lions, finds itself at the top of the division. Or maybe you’ve dealt with some adversity and gritted your way into contention like the Houston Texans and Minnesota Vikings. Perhaps you started strong and have spiraled dismally like me and the Buffalo Bills, playing down to the level of your weaker opponents and losing to them. The highs and lows of being a fantasy manager and an NFL fan are very similar.
Still, we’ve got to keep pushing because just like on the real fields, anything can happen in the crucial weeks leading up to the fantasy playoffs. Things should be pretty smooth for Weeks 11 and 12, with no true fantasy juggernauts on bye this week and no byes at all next week. Still, you might overthink a decision or two, based on matchup or past performance (obligatory Tony Pollard mention). On the other hand, you might feel the need to mix things up, get some new blood in your starting lineup, so I have some ideas for that too.
Don’t Overthink:
Stefon Diggs, WR, BUF: Coming off a 3/34 receiving game against the Denver Broncos, formerly the league’s most generous fantasy defense (now second-most, thanks to the Bills), I can see why some managers would want to bench Diggs against Sauce Gardner and the New York Jets. The Jets have effectively shut down Davante Adams, Travis Kelce and DeVonta Smith, and they kept Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb from scoring, at least. Pretty much anyone can stop the Giants, Patriots and Broncos receivers and, to be fair, that’s been the case for Adams as well. But if your Primacy Bias is working, you’ll remember that they upset the Bills in Week 1 despite allowing Diggs a 10/102/1 line. The Bills fired their offensive coordinator following the MNF loss and promoted QBs coach Joe Brady. This move could reinvigorate the Bills offense and motivate them to put on a much better fantasy show for frustrated managers.
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC: Herbert is fantasy’s QB4 on the season but has struggled against other good pass defenses like the Jets and Chiefs. In Week 11 he travels to Green Bay to take on the Packers, who have quietly been the third-worst fantasy matchup for quarterbacks and fifth-worst for wide receivers. To make matters worse, his top receiving option, Allen, and tight end Gerald Everett are both questionable and listed as day-to-day to start the week. I know there are those of you with crazy QB depth — you could conceivably roster Herbert and Jared Goff or C.J. Stroud — and you might be right to bench Herbert for one of them. If you’d have to go any lower than that, however, stick with Herbert. Jordan Love and Tommy DeVito have the best matchups of the week, but you’re not rolling with them over Herbert.
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DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN: Some fantasy managers might find themselves promoting Hopkins to fill a void left by Drake London, Michael Pittman Jr. or Chris Olave this week. Will Levis was awful in Week 10 in a great matchup and is definitely being thrust into this role sooner than anyone would have preferred, but he has shown some promising signs as well. Levis is going to be up and down, but he seems to consistently find ways to get the ball near Hopkins at least, and that’s something for fantasy. This is another plus fantasy matchup for Tennessee (Jacksonville — third best for fantasy QBs, seventh best overall), so don’t worry too much about slotting Hopkins into lineups for Week 11. If you’re more desperate, Kyle Phillips isn’t a terrible play either.
Tinker With:
Keaton Mitchell, RB, BAL: Mitchell was the biggest pick up after Week 9 but wasn’t heavily started in fantasy leagues. I guess we all need to see confirmation before buying in as it was the same for De’Von Achane at the start of the season. We’ve seen enough to know that Mitchell can be a valuable replacement for Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Rhamondre Stevenson or Bijan Robinson managers this week. It’s a crowded backfield in Baltimore, but like Achane, Mitchell has made the most of his limited opportunities, racking up a combined 172/2 rushing and 28 receiving yards in Weeks 9-10.
Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL: Cooks was one of my summer sleeper picks but, up until now, it was he who was sleeping at the fantasy wheel. He woke up with 9 catches on 10 targets for 173 yards and a touchdown. He and Lamb dominated the pass game last week and, with Dak Prescott and the Cowboys in a passing kind of mood lately, could continue to be a viable fantasy option. Over the past three games, Prescott leads all QBs in throwing for 1082 yards and 11 touchdowns. We’ve talked about how bad this is for Tony Pollard, but it’s been terrific for Lamb, Jake Ferguson and now Cooks. The pass-first formula is working for Dallas, so expect it to continue despite the fact that Carolina is a team that you should at least try hard to run on (there’s a non-zero chance I play Rico Dowdle in DFS).
Devin Singletary, RB, HOU: What Singletary did against the Bengals (150/1) not only supports the case for using him this week but adds to the case for Mitchell. Despite operating as the lead back for Houston only twice, Singletary is already the Texans’ best fantasy back. Since Dameon Pierce will likely remain out for the Week 11 game vs. Arizona, Singletary should be in all fantasy lineups. The Cardinals are the league’s third-best fantasy matchup for running backs and, after getting 30 carries in a close game, Singletary looks to be in line for another big fantasy day.
(Photo of Devin Singletary: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports)
