FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — The Atlanta Falcons have one big quarterback question and lots of little quarterback questions that attach to that big one.
We’ll start today’s mailbag with the big one even though it doesn’t yet have an answer. Coach Arthur Smith has not announced whether Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke will start when the Falcons (4-6) return from their bye week to face New Orleans (5-5) on Nov. 26.
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Ridder, who was drafted by the Falcons in the third round in 2022, started the first eight games of the season but was benched at halftime of the Week 8 game against Tennessee. Heinicke, a sixth-year pro who was added as a free agent in the offseason, started in Weeks 9 and 10 but was replaced by Ridder when he suffered a hamstring injury against the Cardinals last week.
Heinicke’s injury is a “low grade” sprain, Smith said, so he may be healthy enough to play when Atlanta returns to the field, but the Falcons are strongly considering going back to Ridder either way.
“I thought it was a good reset for Des,” Smith said. “Sometimes you need a fresh perspective. I think that helped him. When he got in there (against Arizona), I saw his confidence and I saw the guy that we loved coming out and wanted here.”
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That brings us to all the other questions that make up the big quarterback question, and there were plenty of them this week.
Is Ridder really bad? It’s his first full season and, barring the fumbles in his last two starts, he was moving the ball and seemed to be making progress. He looked great against the Texans, which has aged well with hindsight. — Samantha R.
No, he’s not really bad, which is what makes figuring out what to do with him so tough for the Falcons. If he was really bad, it would be easy. There have been some really bad moments, too many, but there has been enough good sprinkled in that Smith can make himself believe that he has something to work with.
Ridder is 24th among NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play on plays that don’t include a turnover (.01), according to TruMedia. That’s not great, but it’s better than Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence and only one ranking spot behind Joe Burrow. He is fourth among quarterbacks in total rushing EPA on plays that don’t include a turnover (10.9). The only players better are Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. He has been the ninth-most accurate quarterback in the league (8.9 percent off-target throws, according to TruMedia), and that’s in an offense that doesn’t give the quarterback a lot of easy throws.
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“There are things he has done really well as a young player,” Smith said.
So it’s reasonable to see how a coaching staff could look at all those things and believe Ridder could take a big jump as he develops. There’s no guarantee that he will, though, and having to see the future on decisions like this is why coaching in the NFL is such a difficult (and generally short-lived) job.
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Why does Smith continue to vacillate on Ridder when he has consistently displayed inaccuracy on long passes, no touch on short and long passes (Drake London’s aerobatic catch Sunday) and a propensity for mistakes in key situations (like the stumble on fourth-and-1 Sunday)? Does Smith have any ability to evaluate quarterbacks considering his abysmal record since leaving Tennessee? — Seaborn H.
Hey, Seaborn, thanks for the question. As you’ll see from the above answer, I don’t agree with the premise that Ridder is hopeless, but I wanted to add this question because it points to something important and underappreciated.
Smith does not value quarterbacks like you think he might. Every time a hyper-athletic quarterback becomes available, everyone says, “He’d be a perfect fit in Atlanta.” Based somewhat on what I know and some on what I think, I believe that thought is often wrong. Justin Fields? The Falcons had a chance to draft him in 2022 and did not. Trey Lance? San Francisco shopped him for a year, and the Falcons were very much not interested. Daniel Jones if he becomes available? Don’t count on it.
(Lamar Jackson is in a different category. If he really was available this offseason, the Falcons should have done everything in their power to make that happen.)
In general, Smith is skeptical about “the next great quarterback” in the draft, which is one reason you’ll never see his team intentionally tank. As much as he’s looking for physical talent, he’s more so is looking for a hard-to-define makeup.
As an example, here’s what Smith said about Ridder on Monday: “I always watch who wants the ball with the game on the line, and he wants the ball in his hands, that’s why we loved him coming out of Cincinnati. Pro football is going to test you in every which way, and it’s going to play out on the field.”
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You may say, “That’s ridiculous hokum.” Maybe it is, but it’s valuable to understand when you’re trying to figure out how and why Atlanta values certain quarterbacks.
Ridder was 4-4 and Heinicke is 0-2. Do you think the benching is over? Why are there so few deep-pass attempts? — Kelvin P.
Yes, I think the benching is over.
As for your second question, that’s a very good one, and I wish I had asked it Monday. I will soon. It always seemed to me that Smith’s offense worked best at Tennessee and in Atlanta in his first two seasons when it had a “body blow, body blow, haymaker” approach with a physical running game punctuated by a deep passing game, and both have taken a step back this season.
To Kelvin’s question, the Falcons were third in passing attempts of 20-plus yards last season (15.9 percent). They are 13th this year (11.8 percent). The decline is similar on attempts of 15-plus yards (sixth at 22.7 percent last year to 16th at 20.6 percent this year) and 10-plus yards (second at 42.1 percent this year to 10th at 34.3 percent this year). The answer to this, like all questions, is probably a combination of a lot of things, from quarterback play to pass blocking to wide receiver personnel and availability, but I’ll ask.
HOW?! 🤯 @DrakeLondon_
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— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 12, 2023
I noticed you were in the minority of writers who picked Arizona to beat the Falcons last week. I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning. — William F.
For at least a month, the Falcons have been doing the things bad football teams do. They are turning the ball over; they are missing tackles; they are inconsistent in their offensive assignments; they are blowing defensive assignments. Bad football teams lose games. Throw in the fact that Kyler Murray was returning, and it felt like a very losable game for Atlanta, as they all are when it is playing this way.
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Does ownership care about the apathy of the fans? Will a stadium full of Saints fans wake Arthur Blank up? Would Blank let Terry Fontenot hire the coach and not Rich McKay? Does anybody care? — Cleve C.
Who actually hired Arthur Smith, McKay or Blank? Who bears more responsibility for past hires, fires, failure to fire? Can anything really improve as long as McKay is still around? — Rick H.
Lumping these questions together because of the McKay thread, but I’ll start with the “does Blank care?” question. Yes. I think he honestly wants Falcons fans to have a good overall experience, but that doesn’t mean Mercedes-Benz Stadium won’t be full of Saints fans. Until Blank (or someone) builds a consistently competitive team, Atlanta fans have no real incentive to buy up all the tickets at the home stadium.
On McKay, I don’t think it’s wise to give him too much credit or blame for anything. The final executive decisions are made by Blank. Given that, I don’t think McKay’s continued employment or lack thereof with the Falcons has a huge effect on their chances of success.
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You and Jeff Schultz have written that you project Arthur Smith to be back in 2024 absent the rest of the season “unraveling” or clear evidence that players are tuning Smith out. With seven games left, what kind of finish would constitute unraveling? Also, you’ve said that Blank has been patient in the past with coaches, but isn’t there a distinction between Mike Smith and Dan Quinn, who had consecutive losing seasons after multiple playoff appearances, and Arthur Smith who has yet to win three games in a row, let alone make the playoffs? I get the cap constraints in Year 1 and Year 2 for Smith, but I have a hard time envisioning Blank wanting to start 2024 with a head coach on the hot seat (if things do “unravel”) the way he did with Quinn in 2020. — Kristina J.
The Raiders made big changes two weeks ago, and they’re playing better. Has that news gotten to Flowery Branch yet? If it has, why hasn’t the same happened with the Falcons? From the outside looking in, it certainly seems these guys no longer listen to Arthur Smith. — Robert H.
Unraveling in my mind would be a 1-6 finish on the field or an embarrassing situation off the field, such as players saying publicly or privately that the team is in disarray. I don’t expect either of those to happen, but Kristina makes a good point that Mike Smith and Quinn had built up some equity before their dips in production. My thought on Smith’s job security comes back to my belief that Blank sincerely likes him and believes he can get the job done.
Robert brought up the Raiders, but I think that would only make Blank’s point. That’s an organization that has jerked the wheel from one side of the road to the other for the last two decades and always managed to find itself in the ditch because of it. It’s impossible to know what’s going on inside the heads of all the players, but I don’t get the sense that the players are tuning out Smith. You generally can pick up signs of that if you’re around a team, and I haven’t seen them yet.
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It would be interesting to see where Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London rank in fantasy football against their peers. That’s three first-round draft choices, selected by their offensive-minded coach, and none are particularly productive. So is that a player problem or a coaching problem or a quarterback problem? — Keith B.
Well, Keith, I happen to have that information handy. Or TruMedia does, I should say. Robinson ranks 45th in the NFL in fantasy points generated (102). London ranks 146th (60.28) and Pitts ranks 180th (47.5). Bills quarterback Josh Allen has more fantasy points than all of them combined. That gives you some context and also provides a cautionary lesson that Arthur Smith would be sure to point out — lots of fantasy points don’t necessarily mean winning play.
However, it is fair to use it as one piece of data, and that piece of data indicates Atlanta is not getting the most out of those three players. The offensive scheme has a lot to do with that, which is not meant to be an indictment. The Falcons offense always will spread the ball around so no one is going to have a statistically dominant season. Quarterback play, blocking and health (especially Pitts’ health) are also factors.
We’ve got two former NFL quarterbacks on the coaching staff and no quarterback coach. Why? One is coaching wideouts for some reason I can’t fathom. — Daniel W.
Why not bump Matt Schaub up to quarterback coach before the end of the year? He’s already on staff. It’s not a real staff adjustment. More of a definition of a role moving forward. — Scott C.
If Smith is not gone, has there been any push to move play calling? — Cory C.
It’s three former NFL quarterbacks — Schaub (an analyst), T.J. Yates (wide receivers) and Dave Ragone (offensive coordinator). Even though, it’s not listed on Ragone’s title, he is the quarterbacks coach, and Smith is comfortable with that. He is not planning any coaching changes or shuffling, he said after the Arizona game.
“We’ve got the right guys,” he said.
He didn’t address whether he would consider giving up play-calling duties that directly, but I can tell you the answer to that. It’s “No.”
(Top photo of Desmond Ridder: Matt York / Associated Press)
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