GREEN BAY, Wis. — The Athletic’s Austin Mock writes in his latest 2024 NFL Draft order projection that the Green Bay Packers have just a 16.2 chance to make the playoffs. That seems awfully high for a team that has shown little reason to believe it can turn its season around sitting at 3-6, especially with games against the Chargers, Lions and Chiefs in the next three weeks.
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However, the Packers have three of the five teams worse than them in the NFL remaining on their schedule: the Giants, Panthers and Bears. Green Bay also hosts the Buccaneers (4-5) and visits the Vikings without quarterback Kirk Cousins in the final five games.
If the odds hold, the Packers will be 3-9 after Week 13. By then, playoff hopes are gone, if not mathematically then realistically. Even if the Packers lose two of their next three games and somehow beat the Chargers, Lions or Chiefs, they’ll be 4-8 with postseason aspirations realistically shot. Yes, they were 4-8 last season before going on a four-game winning streak to set up a win-and-in regular-season finale, so it’s possible to win five in a row to sneak in, especially with how favorable those final five games are.
Last season, general manager Brian Gutekunst emphasized during the Week 13 bye week playing to win even if the Packers were mathematically out of the playoffs. That’s why it’s unlikely this season that even if the Packers have a zero percent chance to make the playoffs, they’ll give younger guys who are more likely to be part of the future a look over starting veterans who are not.
But we don’t have to abide by Gutekunst’s thinking when crafting stories, so here are a couple of younger players worth giving an extended look over veterans with an eye toward 2024 if the Packers are mathematically eliminated from playoff contention in the near future.
Jaire Alexander still not practicing, but Quay Walker is. Rudy Ford is also not practicing after playing on Sunday.
New rookie CB Kyu Blu Kelly wearing No. 24.
Packers wearing their alternate helmets ahead of Sunday’s game, during which they’ll wear their third jersey. pic.twitter.com/kxt2cJoydz
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 15, 2023
Isaiah McDuffie, ILB
Those inside the building seem high on the third-year inside linebacker who has filled in admirably for both De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker this season while staying healthy himself. The Packers’ two starters have been injured often enough that McDuffie, a 2021 sixth-round pick out of Boston College, has played 51.8 percent of the defensive snaps this season.
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“He plays extremely hard. His finish at the football. He’ll run. He’s explosive,” inside linebackers coach Kirk Olivadotti said. “He tries to do things the right way, play the right way. Those are the things that I think show up and are evident. My wife’s like, ‘I like the way he plays.’ It’s pretty obvious when you look at him.”
Defensive coordinator Joe Barry even compared McDuffie to two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark.
“You know exactly what you’re going to get from Kenny Clark every single day,” Barry said. “Now, Kenny’s a Pro Bowl player, but that’s the thing I’ve really grown to really enjoy about Isaiah, is that you might go a week and you might not hear the dude talk, but he’s consistent every single day with the way he works and the way he grinds and the way he prepares.”
Campbell has hardly replicated his 2021 first-team All-Pro form that earned him a five-year, $50 million extension in March 2022. He turns 31 in July 2024 and trading or releasing him before June 1 would free up about $2.8 million in cap space. It’s unclear whether he’s in the Packers’ long-term plans, whereas Walker, a 2022 first-round pick, certainly is. Once Walker returns to the field from a groin injury that has sidelined him the last two games — he practiced in a limited capacity Wednesday after not practicing at all last week — might the Packers consider swapping McDuffie and Campbell if they’re out of the playoff race?
“Isaiah’s been huge,” head coach Matt LaFleur said. “I think just his ability to step in there and play at a really high level — obviously he’s been contributing for some years now on special teams, but every time we ask him to go in there and take on a larger role, he seems to excel at it. So we’ve got a ton of confidence in him. I view him as a starter, whether he’s starting or not.”
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Sean Rhyan, RG
Starting right guard Jon Runyan Jr. is in the final year of his rookie contract and the Packers might look for a cheaper replacement this offseason. Rhyan, a 2022 third-round pick who briefly filled in for Runyan against the Rams when he was being checked for a neck injury, has played only 15 offensive snaps in his career but would be the logical answer. He was suspended for the final six games of his rookie season for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances, but offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich sounded pleased with where Rhyan is at now.
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“It was awesome to see him go out there and do what he did,” Stenavich said. “He played really well, so I was excited about that and that’s a discussion we have every week, is who our best five are gonna be. So obviously he’s made a case for himself to be in that discussion a little bit more, so that was really cool for him to go out there and do that and he did kind of what you expect him to do.”
Emanuel Wilson, RB
Aaron Jones has one year remaining on his contract and AJ Dillon’s expires after this season. Jones seems more likely to be back, in part because Dillon hasn’t proved he’s feature-back material. The Packers can probably find a No. 2 running back for cheaper than what they’d have to re-sign Dillon for to return to the same role, and that backup to Jones (or a new No. 1 the Packers draft early in April if they cut or trade Jones) might already be on the roster.
Wilson, who made the 53-man roster out of camp despite being an undrafted rookie from Division II Fort Valley State, has played only 30 offensive snaps this season after his standout summer. However, he has run 11 times for 73 yards this season (6.6 yards per carry) including a run down the right sideline for 31 yards against the Rams (and remember his 80-yard touchdown run in the preseason opener against the Bengals?). There’s some burst there that could be intriguing to explore if the Packers are out of it.
Maybe the biggest smile I’ve seen from Jordan Love when a teammate distracted him mid answer about the offense building on last Sunday pic.twitter.com/2y9teUk1wE
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) November 15, 2023
Lukas Van Ness, OLB
First things first: Preston Smith has been one of the team’s best players over the past month. He’s tied for fourth in the league with four sacks in that span and has a forced fumble. The reality remains that he turns 31 on Friday — he has only nine pressures in 85 pass-rush snaps over the last four games, too — and might not be as much of a long-term piece in Green Bay as the team’s most recent first-round pick. He’s under contract through the 2026 season, but cutting or trading him before June 1 would free up about $2.5 million in cap space.
This “swap” seems the least likely to happen, if any happen at all, but it’s worth throwing out there. Van Ness, the No. 13 pick in this year’s draft, has played 34 percent of Green Bay’s defensive snaps (209) but has only one pass defensed, one sack and four tackles for loss. It’s worth noting that Rashan Gary didn’t exactly burst onto the scene as the No. 12 pick in 2019, either, so perhaps Van Ness would flash more with more playing time down the stretch.
“Luke’s playing a lot more in base situations, more first and second down. We’re gearing up some things schematically for him with some pass-rush situations,” pass rush specialist Jason Rebrovich said. “He’s a freak-of-nature kid. The guy comes in here, he works every day. He wants to work. He wants to get better. So all of those things are taking the right steps because he has the right mentality.”
Anthony Johnson Jr., S
The 2023 seventh-round pick intercepted his first pass in his first start against the Rams and returned to the bench against the Steelers with Rudy Ford back in the lineup. Darnell Savage Jr., Ford and Jonathan Owens, the veteran who has replaced Savage while he’s been on injured reserve the last three games, have actually surpassed expectations considering how underwhelming the safety spot looked entering the season.
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However, all three of the veterans’ contracts expire after this season, and if the Packers anticipate one or two of them not returning, it might be worth seeing Johnson in more game action as an audition of sorts for 2024.
(Photo of Emanuel Wilson: Jamie Schwaberow / Getty Images)
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