ACC football Week 12 power rankings: Clemson, NC State keep rising, will Hokies go bowling?

CHESTNUT HILL, MASSACHUSETTS - NOVEMBER 11: Jaylin Lane #83 of the Virginia Tech Hokies reacts with Benji Gosnell #82 of the Virginia Tech Hokies and Harrison Saint Germain #87 of the Virginia Tech Hokies after scoring a touchdown during the first half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium on November 11, 2023 in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Getty Images)
By Grace Raynor and Manny Navarro
Nov 16, 2023

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this article misstated the result of the Boston College–Pitt game. The game will be played Thursday night.

Welcome to The Athletic’s ACC power rankings. Each week, Manny Navarro and Grace Raynor take turns drafting teams based on how they performed the previous week (and all season). Grace has the first pick this week; Manny will take it next week.

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1. Florida State (previously No. 1): The Seminoles got the job done in a gritty victory against Miami, winning by a touchdown to improve to 10-0. After hosting North Alabama this week, FSU still has to get through Florida on the road in the last game of the regular season, as well as whoever the Seminoles meet in the ACC Championship Game. But coach Mike Norvell has everything he needs to make a College Football Playoff run. — Raynor

2. Louisville (2): The Cardinals have completed five one-loss seasons in program history (2013, 2006, 2004, 1990 and 1972) and will have to win on the road at Miami Saturday to keep their hopes alive of doing it a sixth time. Louisville has never beaten the Hurricanes in Miami and is 3-11-1 all-time in the series. It should be a really good battle between Jawhar Jordan, Isaac Guerendo and a really good Cards rushing attack, and Miami’s ACC-leading run defense (86 yards per game, 2.8 per rush). — Navarro

3. North Carolina (3): What a night in Chapel Hill on Saturday. The Tar Heels got the best of rival Duke in double overtime thanks to quarterback Drake Maye, running back Omarion Hampton, wide receiver Tez Walker and some late-game poise from kicker Noah Burnette under pressure. The Tar Heels have tough matchups awaiting at Clemson and at NC State to close out the regular season, but fans storming the field for the final home game at Kenan Stadium this season made for a memorable moment. — Raynor

4. NC State (5): Make it at least seven wins eight times in the past nine years for Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack after last week’s breezy victory over Wake Forest. After losing by 21 at Duke on October 14, NC State has allowed only 29 points over its last last three games with wins over Miami and Clemson, too. Doeren will have to win on the road at Virginia Tech and then beat North Carolina at home to have any shot of finally eclipsing that dreaded 10-win mark. All things considered, this season was not a failure. — Navarro

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5. Clemson (7): Is Clemson finally peaking? A week after the Tigers knocked off No. 15 Notre Dame on Nov. 4, Dabo Swinney and Co. beat Georgia Tech by 21 points in convincing fashion on Saturday. That’s now two consecutive wins for a Clemson team that had all sorts of questions after two consecutive losses to Miami and NC State in late October. This week should be a fun one in Death Valley. Sign me up for Maye and his supporting cast against Clemson’s top 5 defense. — Raynor

6. Duke (4): Third-string freshman quarterback Grayson Loftis threw three touchdowns and lost a double-overtime heartbreaker at top-25 ranked North Carolina last week, but the Blue Devils should have a lot more confidence in him – and the offense – now down the stretch against two-win Virginia and Pitt. The bigger question at Duke going forward is what happens if Texas A&M pushes to bring Mike Elko (defensive coordinator 2018-2021) back to College Station. Elko said he and his family are happy in Durham, but what coach doesn’t say that this time of year? — Navarro

7. Miami (6): The Hurricanes gave Florida State all it could handle last week behind true freshman quarterback Emory Williams. Mario Cristobal’s team has now dropped two consecutive games, but has a prime opportunity to play spoiler this week against Louisville at home. Former starter Tyler Van Dyke will have to be ready, though. Cristobal benched Van Dyke against Florida State to start Williams, who is now out with a season-ending injury. How will Van Dyke respond?. — Raynor

8. Virginia Tech (10): After having the program’s 28-year streak of qualifying for a bowl game snapped in his first season as coach, Brent Pry has found a quality quarterback in Kyron Drones and put the Hokies on the verge of going bowling again this season. Even if the sack-happy Hokies (31 total) can’t beat Brennan Armstrong and three-point underdog NC State on Saturday, they’re only a road win at Virginia away from reaching the six-win mark. — Navarro

9. Boston College (8): Boston College’s five-game winning streak came to an abrupt end on Saturday when the Hokies stomped the Eagles by 26 points. BC’s minor skid continued as they fell to Pitt on Thursday night, 24-16. Jeff Hafley’s team will have one more chance to its first seven-win season since 2018 against Miami next week. If they manage it, it will be a major accomplishment for Hafley as he is finding a way to win in what has historically been a tough job. — Raynor

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10. Georgia Tech (9): After having their two-game win streak snapped at Clemson, the Yellow Jackets can secure their first six-win season and their first trip to a bowl game since 2018 if they can take care of business at home Saturday night against Syracuse. Brent Key’s team – a 6.5-point favorite in their first home game against the Orange since 2013 – is 4-0 coming off a loss. — Navarro

11. Syracuse (13): The Orange beat struggling Pitt at Yankee Stadium last week and need a win against Georgia Tech or Wake Forest to be bowl eligible. With 28 points against the Panthers, the Orange’s shaky offense finally found some success and was just two points away from matching the scoring output from the previous four games combined. — Raynor

12. Wake Forest (11): Dave Clawson’s team has lost six of its last seven including three in a row and is averaging only 20.5 points per game (112th out of 133 FBS programs). It’s hard to replace quarterbacks like Sam Hartman, and sometimes a very successful system struggles without the right triggerman. I’m sure Clawson will tell Hartman he missed him this season when they see each other Saturday in South Bend. — Navarro

13. Pittsburgh (14): Quarterback Nate Yarnell has gone 2-0 as a starter since taking the place of Penn State transfer Christian Veilleux, who himself had taken over from Phil Jurkovec following the Panthers’ 1-4 start. Yarnell may have given Pat Narduzzi and the Panthers some juice to close out the season, though Narduzzi may still need to look for more help at quarterback in the transfer portal following Pitt’s final game of the year. — Navarro

14. Virginia (12): The Cavaliers don’t have the record to show for it, but Tony Elliott and this team have a ton of fight, having lost to Louisville by just seven points. Of Virginia’s eight losses for the season, five have been by one possession. There’s reason for hope in Charlottesville come 2024. — Raynor

Bonus Question

Which of the three new ACC teams will have the most league wins over the next three seasons, from 2024-2026?

Raynor: Stanford. The better a program recruits, the better it performs, and Stanford is the ring leader here. SMU is located in one of the most talent-rich areas in the country and should beef up its recruiting now that the Mustangs are in a power conference, but it could take longer than three seasons to take the next step. I like Stanford in the short term.

Navarro: SMU. If you look at the 247Sports team talent composite, SMU (34th) ranks higher than Stanford (37th) and Cal (45th), but I’m not basing my choice on where the rosters stand now. I’m basing it on the fact that coach Rhett Lashlee is having a great 2023 season on the field effectively using transfers (which will only attract more), has a really strong NIL program backing the Mustangs and an offensive system which should translate to victories. In the long run, Stanford has the highest ceiling with the right coach. It finished as a top 10-ranked program four times from 2010-2015. But for the immediate future, I’m putting my money on Lashlee, SMU and a very hungry collection of boosters in Dallas. Cal hasn’t finished a season ranked since 2006 and has only done so only six times since it joined the Pac-8 in 1968.

(Top photo: Maddie Malhotra / Getty Images)

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