Some thoughts, notes and projections as the 7-3 Cleveland Browns begin to move past their dramatic win over the Pittsburgh Steelers and toward their two-game road trip against the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams.
What’s left to say about this suffocating defense?
Selfishly speaking, with (at least) seven games left, I hope there’s actually a lot to say. It has come in different forms and taken different turns, but outside of the Seattle game, this defense has made every fourth-quarter stop it’s needed.
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That explains why, despite the offensive struggles and quarterback carousel, the game against the Seahawks is the only one the Browns have lost since Oct. 1. The 13-10 win over Pittsburgh was the Browns’ third straight victory, and it was the fifth game in their last six that came down to the final seconds. The only one since the bye week that didn’t go down to the last two snaps was the Browns’ win over Arizona in Week 9 when they held the Cardinals to 58 total yards in their first shutout since 2007.
Let’s go both old school and new school in explaining the levels of defensive dominance. Per TruMedia, the Browns lead the league in total defensive EPA (expected points added) at 131.68. That’s more than 13 points per game added due to dominant defense — and 27 total EPA more than the No. 2 team, the Baltimore Ravens.
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The Browns continue to lead the league in forcing opponent three-and-outs at 52.7 percent. That’s the highest rate of three-and-outs forced through 10 games this century — and the only defense in that span over 50 percent. With the swarming defensive line leading the way, Browns’ opponents have either had no gain or lost yards on 43.4 percent of their snaps, also the highest percentage of such plays posted by any defense through 10 games this century.
Myles Garrett leads the NFL with 13 sacks and is the favorite on BetMGM to be named Defensive Player of the Year. I hope you took my preseason recommendation of taking Garrett to win the DPOY award. I also hope you continue to forget my bad predictions and only celebrate the ones I get right. Thanks in advance.
The Browns have allowed an average of 243.3 yards over their first 10 games. That’s the fewest by any team through 10 games since the 2008 Steelers team that won the Super Bowl. Since 2000, just four teams have allowed fewer yards per game at this stage. One of them was the 2000 Ravens, at 241.6.
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Because the defense is getting off the field so quickly, the Browns are consistently winning the time of possession and running significantly more plays than their opponents — 182 more through 10 games, which is nearly double the next-best team in total plays through 11 weeks. The Dallas Cowboys are No. 2 at 92 more plays than their opponents have run. At one point in the third quarter Sunday, the Browns had run 55 plays to the Steelers’ 34. The game total was 73-57, which wasn’t as bad as the 81-53 advantage the Browns held Week 2 in Pittsburgh when they were sunk by the Steelers scoring two defensive touchdowns.
The Browns’ offense is 29th in total EPA per game, 23rd in points per drive and 30th in yards per play. Those numbers obviously aren’t good, and it’s fair to believe that at some point, the offense will have to be much better for the Browns to become true AFC contenders. But I don’t think it’s either fair or accurate to simply say the offense isn’t good enough when the defense keeps doing this. The offense hasn’t been good except a handful of times it’s truly needed to be. But you don’t need to include “enough” as long as the defense keeps creating extra opportunities and limiting opposing offenses the way it has.
Perhaps this isn’t the last time the 2000 Ravens will be referenced in this space.
Flacco officially signed to practice squad
General manager Andrew Berry was clear last week that the Browns felt adding a third quarterback was mandatory, and Joe Flacco is the only signal caller the team worked out. The former Super Bowl MVP joins Cleveland with the obvious expectation that he’ll eventually be on the active roster, but there’s no indication that the Browns will race to get Flacco ready to play — or that he’ll be needed at all.
Unsurprisingly, coach Kevin Stefanski said Monday that rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains the team’s starting quarterback for this week’s game at Denver. Thompson-Robinson was OK for much of the game against Pittsburgh. He seemed a little over his head in the second half before completing all four passes on the Browns’ final drive to set up the game-winning field goal by Dustin Hopkins.
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It’s fair to think Thompson-Robinson should improve, at least a little, over the next several games as he continues to gain experience and grow into the starting role. The Browns will continue to tailor their game plan to what the rookie can and can’t do, and they will look to rev up their rushing attack while continuing to lean on the defense. Can you win multiple games while almost exclusively throwing short, quick passes? We’re probably going to find out.
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As for Flacco, he obviously provides experience and arm strength the Browns previously didn’t have in their quarterback room. But he’s 38 and wasn’t especially good the last few years for the New York Jets. I think we’re all kind of guessing on how this will play out, and my best guess is Stefanski plans to do just that: let it play out. The Browns will continue to coach up the rookie, they’ll let Flacco get comfortable and evaluate him in some practice settings, and starting in a week or two we could see some situation-based shuffling. There’s a long way to go. There’s presumably some rough weather ahead, and the Browns have proven they can win without exceptional — or, in some cases, even average — quarterback play.
With the obvious disclaimer that a lot can change in two weeks, the Browns might view Flacco as an emergency-only option. We’ll see how Thompson-Robinson is handling things by the time Cleveland returns home to play Jacksonville on Dec. 10.
Njoku apologizes to Thompson-Robinson for dropped passes
David Njoku dropped at least three passes on Sunday, depending on how you judge a true drop. He called his performance unacceptable and said he would be leaving the stadium to go home and catch passes from his personal JUGS machine.
He was not exaggerating, and Stefanski saw it for himself.
“I can confirm he hit the JUGS machine because he FaceTimed me from his house on the JUGS machine,” Stefanski said Monday. “We have a ton of confidence in Dave. We’re going to continue to throw him the ball. He comes through for us. Obviously, he’s hard on himself. That was a pretty big 11-yard gain there (on the final drive), so we’re always going to go to Dave.”
It took the Browns six or seven games, but they’ve made Njoku a focal point of the offense. He’s not doing a lot vertically, but they’re using him in the screen game, on quick passes to the flats and on the occasional option route against zone coverages. The official stat sheet from the Steelers’ game had Njoku with 15 targets. He had seven receptions for 56 yards.
Browns would be AFC’s No. 5 seed if season ended today
As you probably know, the Browns are a half-game behind the 8-3 Ravens in the AFC North — Baltimore’s bye is in Week 13 — and, if the season ended today, Cleveland would be the AFC’s No. 5 seed and first wild-card team.
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The season doesn’t end today. It’s still too early to dive deeply into scenarios and potential tiebreakers because there’s so much season left. But if you want to jump ahead, I’ll oblige. Because the Browns and Ravens split their two games, the first tiebreaker for the AFC North would be the division record. Right now, the Browns and Ravens are both 3-2 inside the division, with only their Jan. 7 season finales left to play — the Browns in Cincinnati and the Ravens home versus the Steelers.
The next tiebreaker would be their record versus common opponents, which for the Browns and Ravens are their AFC North opponents, the AFC South and NFC West.
Right now, the differentiators would be the Indianapolis Colts, who beat Baltimore but lost to Cleveland, and the Seahawks, who lost to the Ravens but beat the Browns. Cleveland still plays the Houston Texans, who lost in Baltimore in the season opener, on Christmas Eve. The Browns and Ravens defeated the Tennessee Titans and Cardinals.
Both still play the Rams and Jaguars. The Ravens are at Jacksonville on Dec. 17, at San Francisco on Christmas night, then host the Dolphins on New Year’s Eve. On digital paper (and based on current injury situations), the Browns have an easier schedule the rest of the way. We’ll see if they can score enough touchdowns to keep it interesting.
Stefanski didn’t have much to say about non-safety call vs. Steelers
Cleveland’s coach didn’t say much about the play he believed should have been ruled a safety on Pittsburgh’s first offensive snap. Garrett closed quickly on Kenny Pickett and dropped the Steelers quarterback in the end zone, but the officials ruled that Pickett had forward progress ahead of the goal line.
Stefanski said Monday he had a “conversation” with the nearby side judge, but said he was “not clear” on the ruling. Stefanski dropped the challenge flag but was a second late in doing so.
Garrett said after Sunday’s game that he was “sure” the Browns had a safety on both plays.
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Browns receive potentially significant injury news
Veteran linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. (hamstring) will be “week to week,” Stefanski said, and veteran safety Rodney McLeod suffered a season-ending bicep injury. Walker is a team captain and McLeod was a captain-like leader and the defense’s most experienced player. McLeod started against the Steelers because Juan Thornhill is again dealing with a calf injury, and there’s no indication of when Thornhill might be able to return.
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Sione Takitaki is coming off what might have been his best game, and he’ll likely see more work with Walker out. Undrafted rookie Ronnie Hickman got defensive snaps after McLeod left the game, and either Hickman or second-year safety D’Anthony Bell would be in line to start this week if Thornhill can’t return.
Nick Chubb gets big ovation from home crowd
Cleveland’s All-Pro running back was lauded by the home crowd twice on Sunday, first when he was introduced on the field before the game and again in the fourth quarter, when in-stadium cameras showed Chubb cheering from his seat. He had his second knee surgery last week.
I’m giving my own ovation to Stefanski after he presented a game ball to Jim Donovan, the longtime radio play-by-play announcer of the Browns who was able to return to work for the Steelers’ game. Donovan has been on leave while undergoing another round of leukemia treatments.
I’m a longtime admirer of Donovan as a broadcaster and downright hilarious person, and we’re all rooting for him to get healthy and be back to full-time work soon. If anybody deserves to be calling a playoff run, it’s Donovan.
(Top photo: Scott Galvin / USA Today)
