The Athletic has live coverage of Commanders vs Cowboys in the NFL Thanksgiving game.
ASHBURN, Va. — ‘Tis the season for giving thanks, even if fans of the 4-7 Washington Commanders aren’t feeling optimistic. Before heading to Dallas this week for the latest Thanksgiving meeting with the Cowboys — and to gobble up the exceptional feast at Jerry World — allow your friendly beat reporter to offer reasons for contentment.
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Hope at QB
Sam Howell’s direct path to Canton took a hit with Sunday’s three-interception performance and other throws sent into harm’s way. Regardless, 12 starts into his NFL career, the North Carolina product has exceeded expectations — at least for those with two feet planted in reality.
Howell’s big arm and mobility were the centerpieces of preseason talking points from head coach Ron Rivera and others. No lies detected. The staff discussed his ability to self-correct and learn quickly throughout the offseason. Check. There was talk of Howell’s grit, but it became a definitive asset when watching the undersized QB absorb weekly punishment via sacks and other hits yet never flinch in the pocket or when scrambling.
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Then there’s the artistry of those daring throws into tight coverage that found his intended targets. That Week 2 touchdown strike to Terry McLaurin? Hang it in the Louvre. There are enough highlight-worthy plays to have an exhibition. Then factor in the respect he’s earned from teammates, the progress he’s made under coordinator Eric Bieniemy and the flexibility his contract could provide, and Hope isn’t only a town in Arkansas. It’s tangible for the organization and fans to dream big, even if — and this is important — everyone has …
Patience before declaring Howell the long-term answer
Instant gratification is a genuine part of modern society, and pockets of fan bases will fight anyone who dares to deny them of that high. In this case, stating all the positives above isn’t enough if you’re unwilling to declare Howell is HIM. The kid’s promise is worth further exploration — and necessary.
There are robust statistics in Howell’s favor; he finished Sunday as the league’s only 3,000-yard passer. Don’t sleep on the context, though. Like the fact Washington’s offense is throwing at a historic rate (boosting volume but not necessarily efficiency) and has faced the easiest schedule of defenses to date, per FTN’s DVOA. Perhaps we wait to see how Howell handles the remaining six contests, which include four games against teams ranked among the top eight defenses in DVOA.
Toughest offensive schedules so far this year based on average defensive DVOA of opponents.
PIT -8.5%
IND -5.8%
CIN -5.6%
TEN -5.3%
CLE -4.5%Easiest
WAS 6.9%
DAL 4.1%
MIA 4.0%
MIN 3.6%
KC 3.1%— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@ASchatzNFL) November 20, 2023
Howell is unequivocally the most promising part of the 11 games played and contests remaining. The future is brighter and more straightforward if he shows he’s the real deal. At times, he looks the part of QB1. On other days, he looks like a reckless passer who lacks the size to see passing lanes and the desired feel for when to throw the ball away. The good outweighs the bad. But if the goal is better than good, the jury remains out.
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Washington didn’t spend wildly on free agents
Other than re-signing defensive tackle Daron Payne, the Commanders were relatively frugal last offseason. Considering the poor returns, whew. The struggles in free agency and the NFL Draft hampered the 2023 squad. That’s spilled milk. Whether because of the pending franchise sale or roster-building choices, that side benefit has the team positioned with approximately $90 million in cap space in 2024 and no detrimental contracts on the books.
That’s a desirable scenario for a potential new general manager and coach, should ownership blow out the current staff; Vegas oddsmakers might take this off the board considering all the action is on “yes.” Expect spending to occur next year, as Washington has 15 to 20 starters or rotation pieces on expiring contracts. That includes safety Kamren Curl, wide receiver Curtis Samuel and cornerback Kendall Fuller.
Some of Washington’s free agents will return. There’s also ample money to ink help at offensive line, tight end, defensive end, linebacker or cornerback if desired.
Not facing the New York Giants again until 2024
New York continues to take a bite out of Washington. Following this season’s sweep, the Giants are 5-2-1 against the Commanders since 2020 — and 17-36 against the other 31 teams. This wasn’t a vintage version of Big Blue, either.
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The Giants have scored four first-half touchdowns this season. All came in two wins over Washington, as NBC Sports pointed out, with Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Imagine the thrashing if Daniel Jones — also known as Captain America when facing the Commanders during his otherwise underwhelming career — was healthy for either meeting.
Hot water
Local meteorologists were surely jealous that all the shower talk Sunday night fell to the sports reporters. As for a different mention of hot water…
Seven weeks to speculate about an eventful offseason
It’s been established that ownership wanted to review Rivera and his staff this season without a certain former albatross around. However, managing partner Josh Harris hasn’t been killing time playing Wordle while waiting for Week 18 to begin assessing what’s next.
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Change is coming. Speculation starts with Rivera, the man wearing hats as head coach and the front-office lead. His days appear numbered in both capacities, barring the unforeseen, though ownership respects the individual it’s worked with for several months. Would Harris seek two people for the GM and head-coaching jobs? Will a front-office hire come first or is another coach-centric setup possible?
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Then you have coordinators, position coaches and front-office executives. Will any of the current employees be holdovers? How will any new hires reflect Harris’ analytics bent? Will he seek safer choices or shoot for a road less traveled with staff and planning? All of this must be determined before forming a roster plan.
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That’s plenty for fans to chew on; these folks have been starving for a turnaround.
Five picks in the top 100
The Commanders have all of their draft picks over seven rounds next season, a projected high second-rounder from the Chicago Bears following the Montez Sweat trade and a compensatory third-round pick acquired from the San Francisco 49ers for Chase Young. Tears or social media screeds won’t bring those first-round defensive ends back. Therefore, embrace what’s in the draft war chest.
Joe Alt pic.twitter.com/l3lgHEH4QD
— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) November 12, 2023
Washington’s 2024 first-round pick is projected at No. 7. Is that high enough to land a future starting offensive tackle like Notre Dame’s Joe Alt, the top tight end prospect in Georgia’s Brock Bowers or, should Howell’s shine fade, a top quarterback prospect? Probably. If not, those nine selections — and probably three inside the top 40 — provide ammunition for a trade up. Maybe the Commanders won’t control the 2024 draft, but they won’t be shut out from getting almost anything they want, either.
Clarity that the roster needs improving
Championship teams have a high ceiling, by definition. The overlooked aspect is their high floor. The Philadelphia Eagles haven’t clicked at the same level as last season’s NFC champs and yet keep finding ways to win. Their stout offensive line and havoc-raising defensive front provide a safe harbor from storms elsewhere.
Washington’s defensive front and wide receivers served the same roles last season. The secondary seemed poised to join them this season. Instead, all three units fell back. Even as the Giants played short-handed Sunday, they still had playmakers on both sides — running back Saquon Barkley and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence — taking control.
The Commanders will return with a solid base next season. Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Payne are Pro Bowl talents, but their 2023 numbers don’t suggest such recognition is coming. It’s the same for Terry McLaurin, who has gone nearly a full calendar year without topping 90 receiving yards in a single game. Fellow wide receiver Jahan Dotson hasn’t generated the same production as his impressive rookie season. No Washington wideout has a 50-plus-yard catch.
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This isn’t all on the players, and we’ll have months to debate scheme and usage. Whatever the fix, Washington must re-establish these strengths or create new ones to prop up the roster when all else fails.
Extra reps for young players
Most of Washington’s kids already start or play significant snaps. Some, like defensive end KJ Henry and safety Percy Butler, have been thrust into more action. Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr.’s first-round status and playmaking potential warranted such usage. At this stage, let them play through struggles and wobbles. See whether their evaluations equate to starters or critical contributors upon entering offseason planning.
Ron Rivera has previously said that, in his dual roles, he'll do what's right for the organization. I asked him what that means at 4-7 with six regular-season games remaining? pic.twitter.com/Bk7om4Laan
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 21, 2023
The rub: The list of those who should garner more reps is short. Washington’s most recent second-round selections, defensive tackle Phidarian Mathis and defensive back Quan Martin, are behind clear starters or other prospects. More work for running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. would mean less for Brian Robinson or Antonio Gibson. Amplifying tight end Cole Turner’s usage would mean less pass protection for Howell. Too bad no upside exists among the linebacker reserves, as there’s justification for seeking two starters this offseason.
You Know Who is gone
Happy Thanksgiving!
Happy Thanksgiving!!pic.twitter.com/UgmFd702ll
— Ben Standig (@BenStandig) November 25, 2021
(Photo of Sam Howell: Tom Hauck / Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL’s best 100 players of all time, is on sale now. Order it here.
