We’ve decided to change up our NFL survivor pool advice format from now on to make the analysis a bit more geared toward the people still alive in their pools. That’s you – congratulations! We’ll post a mailbag prompt for survivor pool questions on Mondays.
To the commenter who wondered how anyone makes it past Week 6…outside of my Week 3 Cowboys pick, our advice has been pretty good! To the commenter who doesn’t believe that second chances should be allowed…wow, I’m glad you weren’t my parents! I love second-chance survivor pools because of the additional money in the pot. Make the buy-back more than the original ante. Everyone does it, so it builds the winnings nicely.
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Answers to strategy questions are coming below, but first, our usual business. These were the highest percentage rostered teams through Week 11: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland, Dallas and Washington. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Chiefs, Cowboys or Ravens make for solid plays in Week 12.
NFL Survivor Q&As
I don’t think I want anything to do with the Jags vs Texans or Steelers vs Bengals so do I trust the Ravens to win after flying cross country against a team that doesn’t have Bosa? I can also choose the Eagles (at least theyre home), Vikings (egh) and the Bus and Titans. Thank you! – Christopher B.
Adam Gretz: If you still have the Baltimore Ravens saved for this week, I think this is the week to use them, especially given those other options. I agree about not wanting anything to do with the Jaguars vs. Texans or Steelers vs. Bengals, and I would also want nothing to do with Eagles vs. Bills or the Vikings right now (love the story of Joshua Dobbs; just not all in on it). Baltimore’s offense is steamrolling people, and the Chargers’ defense is consistently one of the worst in the league and somehow keeps getting worse. And now it does not have Joey Bosa? I would run that pick to pool and not think twice about it.
Detroit at home on Thanksgiving on a short week seems like the obvious play….which makes me nervous? – Paul S.
I still have the Lions, but picking against these Packers scares me. Colts, Titans, or Vikings? – Darrel W.
Renee Miller: I think the Lions will win the game, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t nervous. The Packers have been quietly above average defensively this season, and Jordan Love seems to come out of nowhere with these 300-yard games. The Lions’ big advantage is their run game, which should be enough to secure the victory. They’re my pick of the week.
If you have to pick one Week 12 home underdog, who is it and why? – Laurie H.
Renee Miller: I think I’d take Atlanta in this exact scenario. Desmond Ridder is going to be back, presumably having learned some lessons in ball security, but motivated to prove he’s capable of doing this job. Motivation at home, with the superior defense behind them makes the Falcons a sneaky play this weekend.
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Vikings, Rams or Buccaneers? All heavyweights have been taken and Texans or Jags I want no part of. – Jt P.
Are the Vikings or Eagles the better play for week 12? Would love to save Philly for their easier matchups later in the season. Bears seem like a hard team to gauge, especially against these Vikings. – Jake D.
Would you trust the Vikings or the Titans for this week? I am genuinely split on that one. – Anonymous
What is a better choice? My two favorite matchups that I have are either Vikings over the Bears or Titans over the Panthers. – Anonymous
Do I got Eagles over Bills? – Chris M
Renee Miller: Let me see if I can address all this in one answer. Please don’t pick the Eagles over the Bills this week (it’s Thanksgiving, and my Western New York family would have my head). Buffalo hasn’t been dominant since they trounced Miami in Week 4, but it is a threat to upset any team in the league any given week. Avoid Texans-Jags. Both teams have much to prove, and Vegas knows it could go either way. The Rams and Bucs are both on the road and in games with spreads so narrow it’s also a real toss-up. I could argue both sides equally well in those games, and that’s a big red flag.
Between the Vikings and the Titans, it’s the Titans for me. The Bears are simply a more scary opponent than the Panthers, and even though it’s not amazing, the Titans’ defense is better than the Vikes. Somehow, the Panthers’ defense is even worse than the Bears.
However, I’m OK with you picking Minnesota between the Vikings and other options. They have had better offense and defense than the Bears over the last three games (those with Dobbs). The Bears now allow the fourth-most points to opponents with an average of two passing touchdowns given up per game (the third-highest mark in the league).
Titans, Broncos, or Pats???? – Anonymous
Adam Gretz: I can not honestly tell anybody to go with the New England Patriots, even against a New York Giants team led by Tommy DeVito. For one, DeVito has already played a better game this season than Mac Jones has. And I do not trust any aspect of the Patriots roster against any team. The easy play here is the Titans or Broncos, and I honestly do not think you can go wrong with either, as I think they both win. And maybe easily.
Chiefs, Vikings, Titans, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, and Seahawks are all still available to me. It’s down to just two so this is big time. – Ryan D.
Renee Miller: Gotta go with the Chiefs here. Has your opponent used them yet? Hopefully yes. KC is the biggest favorite of this bunch, and a 9.5-point spread as the visitor is not something seen very often.
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Adam Gretz: I am with Renee 100 percent on this — the Chiefs. I know the Chiefs offense is not what it normally is, but their defense is legit, and I just do not see Aidan O’Connell doing anything against them. I think Tennessee beats Carolina, but if you are down to just one other team with a survivor pool on the line you have to ride with the Chiefs with these options.
NFL Week 12 Survivor Picks
All odds from BetMGM. Picks data from SurvivorGrid.
Adam’s Pick of the Week: Denver Broncos over Cleveland Browns
The Denver Broncos! Yes, the Denver Broncos! I have to be honest; I did not see this turnaround coming, and while I still think this is a pretty ordinary to below-average team, they are on quite the roll thanks to a defense that is forcing a ton of turnovers and a nice bounce-back season from Russell Wilson. I think the Broncos offense will struggle to move the ball on that Cleveland defense, but Cleveland’s offense will turn the football over, putting the Broncos into good positions to capitalize. Denver is at home, and Cleveland will not get as lucky as it did a week ago when it played a Pittsburgh offense that had no idea what it was doing. This might not be prime-era Wilson, but he is significantly better than what this Browns team faced a week ago.
Renee’s Pick of the Week: Detroit Lions over Green Bay Packers
Happy Turkey Day! Be sure to check out my new article over in the fantasy football section on whether you might be approaching teams that play on Thanksgiving differently than you would on a normal week. I can imagine some of you saying to yourself that if you pick Detroit and they lose first thing on Thanksgiving, it will ruin your day/week/season. It would suck, but it would also suck if you lost on Sunday, and I argue it’d suck more if you knew you were picking a riskier option just to avoid the extra feels of a holiday game.
The Lions are the league’s sixth-highest-scoring team with the best two-man run game in the league. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown can also be electric in the passing game when needed. As 7.5-point home favorites over a Green Bay team that gives up the fourth-most points per game, Detroit is a pick that should pair well with your holiday celebrations.
(Photo of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)