I’m guessing after a bunch of Lions and Vikings discussion last week that Week 12 was not a super kind one outside of the holiday festivities, so if you’re still here, you were probably one of the 25 percent who took the Tennessee Titans over the Carolina Panthers. Death, taxes and picking against the Panthers…
The Vikings and Lions let about 32 percent of pool participants down, while those who had saved Dallas, Miami, Kansas City or Baltimore were rewarded with easy wins.
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We will keep answering reader questions this week, but first, the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 12: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington and Tennessee. We won’t be writing up these elite teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Chiefs, Dolphins or Cowboys would make for solid plays again in Week 13.
Q&A
I have Miami, but would prefer to hold them a little longer, especially with the Jets coming up on their schedule. Do I go Chargers or Bucs? – Marge C.
Renee: Miami has a great schedule for the next three weeks. Even though they’re on the road this weekend, they’re still 9.5-point favorites over Washington, who gives up more points per game than any other team. Picking the Chargers on the road in potentially bad weather seems too risky for me, so that leaves you with the Bucs. It’s not without worry – see below – but if you’re adamant about saving Miami, they’re your best bet.
There are somehow 6 of us left in my pool. My available favorites are Bucs, Colts, Atlanta, Steelers, Houston, Rams and Jags. I’m really torn between Jags and Tampa. – Clayton S.
Adam: Well, Clayton, you are in quite the position here because Jacksonville, Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh are looking like the three most popular picks of the week. I think the Steelers beat Arizona, but you can never feel confident in that, given how close their games are. So that leaves Jacksonville and Tampa Bay as the picks. Me personally? I lean toward Jacksonville because the combination of no Joe Burrow and that Bengals; defense (which stinks) seems like the potential for a big Jacksonville win. I also worry about Carolina having a “new coach” boost against a pretty average Tampa Bay team. Jacksonville is the pick.
Any concerns about “new coach theory” by selecting Bucs over Panthers? – Nick K.
Renee: I have them, yes. The Bucs are a very average team who have gotten their wins against worse opponents, so it’s not like they’re some juggernaut team on either side of the ball. You’re counting on the Panthers being awful here. So, to answer your question, the new coach wrinkle is far from a verifiable science. Chris Tabor, former special teams coach for Carolina – their lone bright spot, enters his first true head coaching gig as the interim answer (he subbed for Matt Nagy in Chicago back in 2021). The team will also adjust to losing their running back and quarterback coaches this week. It could be an even worse disaster than usual, but it’s not unheard of for a team to rally around the new coach(es) and go all out to change their collective fortunes (look at the Steelers’ new offense). Sometimes a new voice in the locker room and on the sidelines is what it takes to create a system that is responsive to the players on the field and motivates them to greater heights. Tampa Bay should win the game, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t have any concerns stemming from the new coach situation.
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I’m dubious of Pittsburgh vs. Arizona and Tampa Bay vs. Carolina, but I want to save Miami for their game against the Jets in two weeks. Who should I take? – Cole R.
Adam: I think all three teams will probably win this week, but I would maybe hang on to Pittsburgh because it also has New England next Thursday at home. That is attractive. Tampa Bay this week, Pittsburgh next Thursday against New England and Miami against the Jets and then (hopefully) collect your winnings.
I have the Texans, Steelers and TB this week as my top options. – Christopher B.
Renee: I like Houston, but I think I’d go with the Steelers. See my pick below, and my concerns about Tampa above.
I’m in a pool on one of the gambling apps, so realistically, no single person will win; just everyone who doesn’t lose will share the pot. Would you try to plot out future weeks at this point, or would you use same strategy as smaller fields? – Steve K.
Adam: Without knowing exactly what teams you have remaining, I would try to plot things out as best I could, especially if the goal isn’t necessarily to outlast a set group of people but to not get eliminated. By now, we know who is good, who is bad, who will have something to play for and who is playing for draft position. Plot it out and go from there.
What once started with 220 people is now down to 6 remaining, myself being one of them. I need the Athletic’s help…
Do I go…
PIT @ home vs ARI
TB @ home vs CAR
JAX @ home vs CIN
LAR @ home vs CLE
PHI @ home vs 49ers
Those are my options. Let me know what team will help me survive another week! -Chris M.
Renee: Jacksonville is Adam’s top pick and would have been mine too if he hadn’t beaten me to it, so we’re both going to push that direction. I’d avoid SF and Philly like the plague this week. It’s too close to call. I like Pittsburgh also, but you could save them for next week vs. New England as well.
I have 2 of the final 7 entries (no one else has more than 1). Is it time to get contrarian with one entry? Or go Chiefs and Jax and play it safe? Thoughts on long-term strategy?
Entry 1 used: WSH, TB, LV(re-buy), LAR, MIA, BUF, KC, LAC, CLE, SEA, DET, DAL
Entry 2 used: CAR (re-buy), IND, LAC, DEN, DET, LV, SEA, BUF, NOR, DAL, SF, MIA
Thanks! – Marcus A.
Adam: I might go contrarian on at least one of those entries because, in taking a quick look at the teams you have remaining, I still see Pittsburgh (versus Arizona) as an option and if you REALLY want to get contrarian … I don’t hate the Rams – who are playing better – at home against a Cleveland team that does not have a quarterback and might have a banged up Myles Garrett. They seem to be available on one of your entries. You might be able to save the Chiefs and/or Jaguars for another week, with both of them having favorable matchups ahead.
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NFL Week 13 Survivor Picks
Adam Gretz’s Pick: Jacksonville over Cincinnati
This seems like a terrible matchup for the Cincinnati Bengals. For one, not having Joe Burrow makes the Bengals a non-factor. They managed just 10 points against the Steelers a week ago, while coach Zac Taylor is 4-20 in his career as Bengals coach when Burrow is not his starting quarterback. Jake Browning made some decent throws in his first career start, but nothing that would change a game. Further compounding issues for the Bengals is the quarterback is far from their only issue. The defense has also been a season-long problem, and they enter Sunday’s game 31st in the league in yards against per game (just one yard ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers) and are one of the worst teams against the run. The Jaguars are more than a touchdown favorite here and seem easy to pick.
Renee Miller’s Pick: Pittsburgh over Arizona
The Steelers have gotten back to their defensive roots this season, allowing the fifth-fewest points per game. They’re averaging 1.8 forced turnovers per game (T-third) and allow among the fewest rushing touchdowns per game in the league. The numbers put them in the company of more widely appreciated elite defenses like Baltimore, San Francisco and Dallas.
When their offense came to life in Week 12 after being unshackled from Matt Canada – the now famous first 400 yards of offense in 8 million years – this became a team to reckon with. Defense is usually harder to correct than offense and there is no shortage of talent on this roster. The fact that Arizona gives up the second most points per game and is the only team in the top five in both passing and rushing touchdowns allowed bodes well for the Steelers’ offensive improvements to continue in Week 13.
Less flashy, but essential when it comes to winning close games, Pittsburgh boasts the lowest turnover rate in the league (tied with the Bengals). If you’re still not convinced, the Cardinals haven’t won a game on the road all season long. In a cool, wet Pennsylvania stadium in the early window, that’s not going to change.
GO DEEPER
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(Photo of Mike Tomlin: Brandon Sloter / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)