Women’s college basketball power rankings: How can UConn adjust? Turn to its freshmen

Women’s college basketball power rankings: How can UConn adjust? Turn to its freshmen

Sabreena Merchant
Dec 4, 2023

A month into the 2023-24 season, 20 undefeated teams (out of 360) remain in Division I after Stanford and George Mason fell from the ranks Sunday. It comes as little surprise to see preseason darlings such as South Carolina and UCLA among the unbeatens. Teams such as NC State and USC, who welcomed high-profile freshmen, have succeeded earlier than might have been expected, but they aren’t huge shocks, either.

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The statistic that’s a bit of an eye-opener is that six of these 20 undefeated squads come from one conference, and it’s not one of the conferences that often gets brought up as the best in the country. Not the SEC, the Pac-12 or the Big Ten. In fact, it’s the Big 12 racking up the most wins to start the year.

In addition to Texas and Baylor — which were expected to be the class of this league — Texas Tech, TCU, West Virginia and UCF have avoided defeat to this point. The Longhorns and the Bears boast resume-boosting wins against UConn and Utah. The other four don’t have wins over ranked teams yet, but TCU beating Nebraska, UCF defeating Auburn, and Texas Tech’s win over Rutgers are quality victories to build on. West Virginia gets a chance for a Power 5 prove-it game Monday against Penn State. That quartet hasn’t quite cracked this pollster’s top 25, but they’re getting closer.

The Big 12 has had one Final Four team in the last decade, when Baylor won the national title in 2019. If the league’s depth is real and not a November blip, perhaps a little more competition during conference play would serve the Big 12 well during March. Even if it isn’t, Texas might be good enough so that doesn’t even matter. The Longhorns rise to No. 3 this week after their first ranked win of the year, and their ceiling seems even higher. Here’s this week’s power rankings:

Dropped out: Ole Miss, Tennessee, Princeton, Mississippi State

Almost famous: Penn State, Texas A&M, TCU


Put Madison Booker’s name in the conversation for best freshman

A number of freshman guards across the country have dazzled this past month, from JuJu Watkins in Southern California to MiLaysia Fulwiley in South Carolina. In the middle of those two is another player who had her own national television coming-out party Sunday. It’s hard to know exactly what position Texas’ Madison Booker is — she says she thinks of herself as a wing, while other people call her a one through four — but she has enough guard skills to be a part of this field.

Coach Vic Schaefer called Booker his second-best passer during the preseason, behind perhaps the best point guard in the country, Rori Harmon. The freshman has assisted on 23 percent of Texas’ shots when she’s on the floor, which puts her in the 98th percentile of all players, per CBB Analytics. She’s kept her turnovers low as well, and her assist-to-turnover ratio is in the 96th percentile.

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But her passing isn’t what makes Booker stand out. The highlight reel comes from her scoring, because Booker has one of the most beautiful pull-up jumpers in college basketball, let alone in the freshman class. She put that to good use in the Longhorns’ win over the Huskies, canning nine jumpers en route to 20 points. She is especially good on the left side of the floor, as she likes to use a right-to-left crossover to freeze the defender and give herself room to elevate. Once the shot goes up, it looks like it’s going in every single time.

 

Texas has been an outstanding defensive team in recent years that didn’t quite have the offensive juice to contend. It will be interesting to see if Booker helps change that.

Is UCLA a threat to South Carolina?

I gave some serious thought to bumping the Gamecocks in favor of the Bruins this week. While South Carolina encountered some bumps in eventual Tobacco Road victories over North Carolina and Duke this week, UCLA was about as smooth as could be in defeating Arkansas, which had just gone into Tallahassee and beaten Florida State. The Bruins have addressed their rebounding weaknesses from last season, and Lauren Betts gives them the efficient offense they so desperately need.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

How Lauren Betts found a new home, a new start and renewed confidence at UCLA

However, the separation factor for South Carolina continues to be defense. The Gamecocks have the second-best defensive rating in the country, per Her Hoop Stats, while UCLA is 58th. Watching South Carolina raise its defensive gear against the Tar Heels and the Blue Devils — UNC shot 31 percent from the field and Duke had two separate nine-point quarters — was a reminder that the reigning SEC champs have the most elite unit of the two teams. Between Raven Johnson’s ball pressure, Bree Hall’s activity on the wing and Kamilla Cardoso and Ashlyn Watkins cleaning up the paint, the Gamecocks are never out of a game because they can always create enough stops.

One thing to keep an eye on is the fluctuation in Fulwiley’s role. It doesn’t seem like an accident that South Carolina’s offense looked unimaginative in two games when she played a total of 20 minutes.

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What a start for Jacy Sheldon

I’m not sure there’s a player who more singularly epitomizes her team’s style of play than Jacy Sheldon for Ohio State. This isn’t to say that Sheldon is the Buckeyes’ best player, but when she’s at her best, she activates the best version of Ohio State. A Sheldon steal and score feels like the quintessential Buckeyes possession.

Against Tennessee — in a game that bore a remarkable resemblance to the two teams’ meeting in Columbus last year (please figure out the turnovers, Kellie Harper) — Sheldon had her usual four steals and six assists. Her 3.7 steals per 40 minutes is in the 97th percentile of the country. Her motor is nonstop, which must be a nightmare to have to dribble against. She’s shooting 42 percent on 3-pointers, which, along with the long-range scoring from Rebeka Mikulášiková, has helped mitigate the absence of Taylor Mikesell. Sheldon looks completely recovered from the leg injury that cost her most of 2022-23, and Ohio State once again looks like it will factor into the Big Ten title picture.

Should UConn lean on its freshmen?

After their first loss to Texas in program history and their earliest third loss in nearly 40 years, the Huskies have a lot of questions. My hope is that Geno Auriemma turns to his youngest players to answer them. Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards will certainly be the foundation, but beyond them, the production from the veterans hasn’t been noteworthy enough to earn legacy minutes ahead of this year’s rookies.

First-years KK Arnold, Qadence Samuels and Ashlynn Shade were the only players to have non-negative plus-minuses against Texas, a continuation of a season-long trend for Arnold and Shade. That duo is shooting lights-out from the field, which the Huskies require around their two tent poles, Bueckers and Edwards. Arnold has made 53 percent of her 2-pointers and 60 percent of her triples while Shade has made a spectacular 77 percent of her 2s, a trend that continued even in a high-profile game against the Longhorns. Shade’s perimeter scoring almost helped UConn spring the upset in the fourth quarter. Samuels hasn’t had the same consistency of production but provides athleticism on the glass and as a wing defender, which the Huskies haven’t really been getting from Aubrey Griffin.

It’s too early to write off this year’s UConn team altogether, but combined with last season, it’s fair to say that the core group needs some shaking up. The Huskies actually have some depth if they use their bench. It would be fun, and probably fruitful, to see them play with more pace and space, and the young ones can help make that happen.

How Jeff Walz keeps figuring it out

I expected Louisville to take much longer to jell with so many new players, especially with Jeff Walz integrating a new point guard, but the Cardinals are already a top-15 team. Walz has done quick work getting his new floor general up to speed, but it hasn’t been Jayda Curry, the ballyhooed transfer from California. Instead, Walz has gone with more of a veteran, Nina Rickards.

The fifth-year guard didn’t run point in any of her four years at Florida, but she took Curry’s place in the starting lineup and has been on the ball a lot more for Louisville. The change doesn’t seem to have been inspired by Rickards’ offense; rather, Walz has insinuated the defense at the start of the games wasn’t working, and Rickards is miles ahead of Curry on that end of the floor. She’s an excellent rebounder for her position — the Cardinals rebound 10 percent more of their misses with Rickards on the floor — and is a ball hawk. It also helps that Rickards has also made 60 percent of her 2-pointers.

 

In all likelihood, Louisville will go through another metamorphosis during the regular season. For now, it’s interesting to watch Rickards unlock a new facet of her game — that type of skill development has to be part of the reason transfers keep flocking to Walz.

Wishing Mississippi teams better help

KK Deans is out for the season, and that means Ole Miss is once again struggling to space the floor. And in Starkville, Mississippi State suffered two losses without Jessika Carter and Erynn Barnum. After both teams had impressive moments in the 2023 NCAA Tournament, it’s been a downer to see some of their momentum sapped early in the year. Another conference foe, Tennessee, has labored in the absence of Rickea Jackson.

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Texas A&M appears ready to fill the vacuum of power in the SEC, in true southeast fashion, on the strength of its defense. The Aggies control the defensive glass, force a lot of turnovers, and run like hell off of those misses. The offense is a work in progress for Joni Taylor’s squad, but when you hold your opponents to 32 percent shooting — fifth-best in the country — you can buy yourself some time on the other end of the floor.

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

Getting Technical: Who's the top freshman? JuJu Watkins? Madison Booker? MiLaysia Fulwiley?

(Photo of KK Arnold:  Lance King / Getty Images)

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Sabreena Merchant

Sabreena Merchant is a women's basketball Staff Writer for The Athletic. She previously covered the WNBA and NBA for SB Nation. Sabreena is an alum of Duke University, where she wrote for the independent student newspaper, The Chronicle. She is based in Los Angeles. Follow Sabreena on Twitter @sabreenajm