This is looking to be our final survivor column of the year as survivor pools start to reach their inevitable conclusion, and we just wanted to thank everybody for following along, asking questions and engaging with us. We hope we at least helped steer you in the right direction in some weeks – even if we both missed this past week with Arizona and Cincinnati pulling off the upsets.
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With Arizona and Washington on bye, that limits the number of obvious targets sitting out there. New Orleans over Carolina might be enticing, but be cautious there given how bad the Saints are against the spread and the injury situation with Derek Carr. Maybe you want to roll the dice on Pittsburgh after its bad showing on Sunday, or perhaps you want to keep buying into Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers.
We will keep answering reader questions this week, but first, the highest percentage of rostered teams through Week 13: Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City, San Francisco, Miami, Buffalo, Seattle, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland, Dallas, Washington, Tennessee and Pittsburgh. We won’t be writing up these teams anymore, but if you saved them, the Ravens, Dolphins and 49ers would make for solid plays again in Week 14.
NFL Survivor Q&A
Seems like sharp money is on Carolina. Is this based on any perceived improvement by them or is this more of an indictment of Carr and the Saints? Is fading the Panthers still a viable strategy or is NO to risky to back at this point? -Brendon D.
Adam: Derek Carr’s situation is a part of it, but I also think the fact Dennis Allen is one of the NFL’s worst coaches as a favorite is also a part of it. Under Allen the Saints are 3-12-1 against the spread as favorites, 2-6 as a home favorite, 1-8-1 as a favorite this season and 0-4 as a home favorite this season. You just can’t trust them. I think the Saints SHOULD win, and for survivor purposes that is all that matters. But it will probably be painfully close and not the slam dunk it might seem based on records. I would tread with caution, especially if Carr can not play.
Do I trust the Texans to defeat an inept Jets offense, or the Steelers in prime time on Thursday against a similarly broken Patriots team? -Evan N.
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Renee: Both are reasonable, but as I’ll elaborate below, the Texans are the safer pick this week.
I am among the last 300 entries of a 40,000+ pool. Realistically, it’s going to be split, but I just saw 70% of entries go in one week, so who knows?
My layout is below. Also have Browns, Colts, Bengals, Falcons, and Chargers.
If Stevenson can’t go Thursday I’m sticking with the Steelers. If he suits up, do I move up the Packers or hope their defense holds the Pats in what will probably be another rock fight?
Week 14: Pittsburgh
Week 15: Rams
Week 16: Broncos or Eagles
Week 17: Eagles or Texans
Week 18: Packers – Augustus E.
Adam: While I have zero trust in Mitch Trubisky leading the Steelers offense, I will say this about them this week: They do not tend to lay an egg two weeks in a row, and they are excellent under Mike Tomlin at home in primetime games. They seem to save their best for those moments. The Patriots offense is also that bad. I would stick with the Steelers this week and hold onto the Packers. I think that is a sound layout, and I do not like any of the other matchups you might have available this week. At least not enough where I would have more confidence than the Steelers against the Patriots.
It’s down to two people left! I’m debating Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Packers. Is the Packers game a trap game? Is Pittsburgh just enough against weak NE? Can Houston be trusted on the road for the first time since 11/12? Who do you got? -John S.
I’m in the same boat with 7 people left. I have the same three selections I’m agonizing over. -James R.
Renee: Congrats! Only one person to beat. It would really help my answer if I knew who they could still use (or who they couldn’t use). Of your three choices, only Pittsburgh is home, but it appears from their performance against Arizona last week that we greatly overestimated the offensive improvements. New England is a much better defensive team than the Cardinals, so even if the Pats struggle to score offensively, this is not a gimme game for the Steelers. I’ll go more into why I like Houston the best below, but to touch on Green Bay…Jordan Love is on a tear right now, but part of his success was coming from the terrific play of Christian Watson the last two weeks. With Watson not looking likely, I’m less willing to take a chance on the Pack in New York. The Giants are a mess offensively, but they’ve allowed only 91 points at home this season, and 40 of those were to Dallas in Week 1.
What is the strategy moving forward when everyone is on their last life and one person is still perfect? Do you just bet against the perfect person every week and try to pick a team they aren’t picking? – Patrick M.
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Adam: We’re now in Week 14 so there aren’t a lot of opportunities left for that person to lose two lives if I understand your pool correctly. Your only option is to go in a different direction from that player until you’re knocked out or that player loses a life, making things more interesting for everyone else. You’ll be knocked out if you take the same team as the perfect entry and they lose a game.
Is there a point you would recommend starting a hedge every week for a large money prize pool? You’d theoretically be picking against plus money underdogs, and every week you survive the payout should get larger, so I’m wondering if there’s a week you want to start considering taking the ML of the team you are picking against and doubling it the following week if you survive. – Ric G.
Adam: This all depends on your risk tolerance. It might be nice to get your entry fee at least back by hedging for a couple of weeks until we get down to the end. It also depends on how many other entries are left and what happens to the pot if there are a lot of entries left. The great thing about legal sports betting in so many states is that it’s easy to hedge in these opportunities now. Also, don’t forget you can use live betting to hedge. Just be sure to shop around and get the best moneyline.
Another thing to consider is knowing your house rules regarding a tie and the sportsbook house rules on a moneyline bet if the game ends in a tie. Some sportsbooks do not treat ties as a push.
I’m one of 4 left out of 350 and have the same questions, but I still have the Chiefs & Eagles. I don’t want to use either of them this week, as better match ups in the future. I’m really torn between the Steelers & Packers. On a side note, I hate taking the Monday night game, I like to already be in and root against the pick on MNF, just like last night. Thanks for your input. – Anonymous
Renee: Congratulations! I wouldn’t want to use the Chiefs or Eagles this week against Buffalo and Dallas, respectively. Both the Steelers and Packers play teams with atrocious offenses; the Patriots and Giants are the lowest-scoring teams in the league. What tips the balance for me is 1) Pittsburgh is at home and 2) the Steelers’ defense allows the sixth-fewest points per game in the league. I know they didn’t show up vs. Arizona, which was disappointing to many Survivors, but I think that will motivate them even more to dominate this game and win.
NFL Week 14 Survivor Picks
Adam’s Pick: Green Bay Packers over New York Giants
My initial instinct here is to pick the Pittsburgh Steelers over the New England Patriots, but they are no longer an option for us to pick because they were the most rostered team a week ago (and that did not go well). So with them off the table my next pick is a suddenly resurgent Green Bay Packers team against the New York Giants.
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While I love the Tommy DeVito story, and it is fun to watch, his two wins came against an abysmal Washington defense and an even worse New England team. The Packers might not be Super Bowl contenders. Still, they are significantly tougher competition than what the previous two teams provided, and they also have one of the NFL’s best pass defenses. That is a bad matchup for DeVito.
I also can not believe I am saying this after the season started, but I love how Jordan Love is playing now. The Packers are 4-1 in his past five games, while he has thrown for 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions during that stretch, with a passer rating of 108 or better in each of the four wins. He has another potentially great matchup this week against a Giants defense that is giving up 24.3 points per game and is one of the league’s worst defenses against the pass.
The Packers have played their way back into playoff contention, and they keep that momentum rolling this week.
Renee’s Pick: Houston Texans over New York Jets
It’s not simple at this season stage, but there are several reasons to like the Texans, even on the road in New York. Houston is a Top 10 scoring team, while the Jets score the third-fewest points per game. No doubt, CJ Stroud and Co. have been better at home (5-2) than on the road (2-3) but those wins on the road were both against teams better than the Jets (Cincinnati and Jacksonville) while the home stats could be skewed by the poor quality opponents they faced in Houston. This is to say that I’m not overly concerned by the road game. The Texans are still minus-6.5 point favorites and the Jets have one of the lowest implied team totals (~14 points, which they average per game this season).
The Jets are in the news again this week – and it’s never good news. They don’t know who will start at QB in Week 14 and if it’s Zach Wilson, he’s not sure he wants the job. The defense has been carrying the team, but even Sauce Gardner must now be fed up with the organizational dysfunction. Bottom line: New York has nothing to play for, while Houston is in a super tight AFC South division that just saw its leader, the Jaguars, suffer devastating losses to injury (Trevor Lawrence and Christian Kirk). The Texans lost rookie sensation Tank Dell to injury last week, but Stroud, who leads the league in passing yards, still has two talented receivers in Nico Collins and Noah Brown, plus two able running backs to move the ball. Given that the Jets give up 4.3 sacks per game (third most) and commit 1.9 turnovers per game (third most), the Texans’ defense could also be a huge factor in winning.
(Photo of C.J. Stroud: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)