The energy at One Bills Drive has changed. The Buffalo Bills have back-to-back wins, over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, are playing like one of the AFC’s best seven teams, and now a rout is expected in Los Angeles against the Justin Herbert-less Chargers, who also just fired their head coach.
However, 2023 has been a roller coaster for Buffalo. Could a letdown loom? Our Bills writers Joe Buscaglia and Tim Graham discuss Saturday’s Chargers matchup.
The Bills are coming off a major win over the Cowboys. The Chargers’ loss to the Raiders last week is one of that franchise’s lowest moments. Does this feel like the classic trap game or should the Bills roll in L.A.?
Buscaglia: I think the Bills should handle their business this week, even with the usual boost a team gets when they fire a head coach in season. In addition to having nine losses, the Chargers have been ravaged by injuries. The headliner is franchise quarterback Justin Herbert, but they’ve been without Joey Bosa since late November, lost wide receiver Mike Williams early in the year to a torn ACL and also will be without top receiver Keenan Allen. Since becoming the Bills head coach, Sean McDermott has been excellent against quarterbacks who haven’t started many games in the NFL, and Chargers quarterback Easton Stick will be making only his second career start. The Chargers could have an early boost where the game is a bit close for comfort, but the Bills have enough talent all over the field to bring on a sound victory.
Advertisement
Graham: The Bills under new play caller Joe Brady have started to look like the fun-loving group of seasons past, not the plodding zombies from October and early November. The idea of rolling into SoFi Stadium in hopes of preening on Peacock and padding stats could be dangerous, but that’s me conjuring a scenario where 12-point home underdogs could pull off an upset. There should be no more trap games for Buffalo. Too much is at stake each week to overlook anybody, and there are too many recent reminders of what can go wrong against inferior opposition such as the Jets and Patriots, or when you don’t pay attention to detail such as against the Broncos and Eagles. While the Chargers offer a massive drop-off in competition compared to three straight top-shelf opponents, the Bills’ playoff push has galvanized them beyond the point of distraction.
What is the most impressive non-James Cook aspect of the win over the Cowboys last week?
Buscaglia: I’ll say Brady, the interim offensive coordinator. Watching the film made his outing look that much more impressive in how he varied his personnel groupings as frequently as he did. On top of that, he pivoted from the original game plan when the Cowboys didn’t make an in-game adjustment with having three safeties, and just went full boar to attack the opposition on the ground to the point the Bills couldn’t be slowed down. The Bills called a designed run on 20 of their final 25 non-kneel-down plays. That sort of in-game adjustment is something they struggled to find consistently with Ken Dorsey. Plus winning in a way they aren’t used to also checks a box for making the Bills that much more dynamic down the stretch.
Graham: I think Joe is cheating with his answer because Cook’s performance is the main reason Brady looked so good. But it’s difficult to argue Brady hasn’t infused desperately needed energy into the offense. So I’ll let it slide. This time. My answer has to be on the defensive side. Cook’s incredible day eclipsed what the Bills did to one of the NFL’s most explosive teams. Nickel back Taron Johnson helped throttle star slot receiver CeeDee Lamb, who scored a garbage-time rushing touchdown but was limited to seven catches for 53 harmless yards. Johnson recorded seven tackles and a pass breakup.
GO DEEPER
Bills All-22: James Cook, rushing attack vs. Cowboys more impressive than you think
The Bills don’t have to worry about Justin Herbert and a few other stars, but what other Chargers should they worry about Saturday night?
Buscaglia: He hasn’t had the best season in 2023, but running back Austin Ekeler seems like the type of player an interim coach would want to lean on in his first game in charge. Ekeler’s do-it-all style on the ground and as a pass-catching option lends itself well to simplifying things for Stick. And the weak link of the Bills could be matching one of their two linebackers up against Ekeler in space. Plus the Bills will be without yet another starting defensive tackle, as Jordan Phillips had wrist surgery Sunday night and will not play. Stopping Ekeler will be priority No. 1 for the Bills.
Advertisement
Graham: Keenan Allen would be my answer if he were playing. I don’t mean to be flip when talking about the NFL’s receptions leader, but he can’t throw the ball to himself. My pick is edge rusher Khalil Mack, the University at Buffalo alum who will have a lot of friends watching back in Western New York. The three-time All-Pro ranks third with 15 sacks, tying his career high. In three career games against the Bills, he has 14 tackles, two sacks, five quarterback hits and a forced fumble and recovery.
What can DaQuan Jones’ return do for this defense? What does the loss of Jordan Phillips do to this defense?
Buscaglia: The DaQuan Jones element is humongous for the Bills if he can return to his pre-injury form of the 2023 season. Once he’s back to full health, Jones would again become their locked-in starting one-technique defensive tackle next to Ed Oliver and be a legitimate upgrade to anything else the Bills have on the roster. Phillips has started in Jones’ absence, but Phillips is nowhere close to the run defender Jones is, and Phillips is better suited for Oliver’s position at three-technique. Jones was also having a career year as a pass rusher before his injury, so being able to use him on all three downs without a drop-off is immensely valuable. For however long Phillips is out, they’ll be missing a solid pass rusher from the interior, but they can probably get by with the trio of Linval Joseph, Tim Settle and Poona Ford up until Jones is ready to return.
Thursday injury report pic.twitter.com/glVBNcvkW8
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) December 21, 2023
Graham: Getting Jones back for the stretch run would be a boon for Buffalo’s defense, with or without Phillips. Pro Football Focus calculated Jones generated pressure at a robust 20.3 percent of pass plays through five games. That still leads the team. In Week 4 against the Dolphins, a team the Bills will see again in the regular-season finale and perhaps as soon as one week later in the playoffs, Jones sacked Tua Tagovailoa once, hit him another time and hurried him five times. He also stuffed Raheem Mostert for a 1-yard gain. Phillips has his liabilities, as Joe points out, but he does add a lot of spiritual energy to the defensive front.
The Dolphins have a brutal stretch against the Cowboys and Ravens the next two weeks. The Bills have the Chargers and Patriots. What are the chances Week 18 turns into the AFC East championship game?
Buscaglia: I like those odds. Due to the coaching change and the Bills having to travel across the country, this matchup with the Chargers has a harder degree of difficulty than the Week 17 home matchup against the currently 3-11 Patriots. However, I’m fairly confident that, as long as Josh Allen is healthy enough to play, the Bills should emerge from those games with a 10-6 record. If the results of the first 14 weeks hold, the Dolphins are more likely to drop one of these next two games. They have the third-worst strength of victory percentage in the entire NFL at .321, trailing only the New York Giants (.286) and New Orleans (.306). Their best win all year was in Week 3 against the Broncos, who didn’t find their form until well after that 70-20 loss. Either way, both teams likely will be playing for something in Week 18, which should make for a pretty fun atmosphere in Miami Gardens.
Graham: Imagine that. A little over a month ago, One Bills Drive was a dystopian hellscape with no hope Sean McDermott or Ken Dorsey could salvage a woebegone campaign full of hope after Buffalo obliterated Miami. Then it all went to ruin. A disappointing but reconcilable loss to the Jaguars in London. Then a narrow victory over the putrid Giants followed by an inexplicable loss to Mac Jones and the Patriots, an understandable but inconvenient loss to the Bengals and then a crushing groaner to the Broncos due to having 12 men on the field. Now, we enter the Christmas season talking about a fourth straight AFC East title. Not only is it possible, but based on what we’ve seen the past few weeks, I’d be a little surprised if it didn’t happen.
(Top photo of Josh Allen: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)