The NFL has Baltimore Ravens–San Francisco 49ers gift-wrapped for fans on Christmas night. The two conferences’ top seeds meet in what could be a Super Bowl LVIII preview.
But as always, there is plenty to discuss in Week 16, especially with the playoff hunt in both conferences tightening. The Athletic’s NFL writers Mike Sando, Kalyn Kahler and Jeff Howe preview the weekend’s matchups and storylines.
The Cowboys are back on the road, this time against the Dolphins. What is wrong with this team away from Arlington?
Sando: The Cowboys have been underdogs three times this season. They lost all three games: at San Francisco, at Philadelphia and at Buffalo. Those were games the Cowboys were expected to lose. The Arizona loss was a one-off performance that is difficult to explain. I don’t really see the home-road split as being pivotal in most of those defeats. Buffalo would have won that game last week regardless of venue.
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Howe: The Cowboys have had a tougher road schedule, so that explains it to an extent. But for a team with Super Bowl aspirations, it’s going to have to start beating quality teams — and most likely on the road. So it’s an excuse for now, but no one wants to hear excuses in the playoffs. Another issue: I’m not sure this week will do anything to alleviate the road concerns because the biggest knock against the Dolphins has been their inability to take down quality opponents. The Dolphins (.321) and Cowboys (.379) have the two worst strength-of-victory numbers among the teams entering the week in the 14-team playoff field. And they’re actually among the five worst in the entire league. So if the Cowboys beat the Dolphins, did they solve their road woes or simply take advantage of an opponent that is working through its own red flag?
Kahler: As Sando and Howe pointed out, Dallas’ road schedule has been really tough, and I’m not sure there’s any explanation for losing on the road other than the quality of their opponent, with Arizona as an outlier. Miami is right up there with the caliber of their other road opponents, with a very strong running game in Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane. Last week, Buffalo rushed for 266 yards on Dallas, which doesn’t bode well for the Cowboys this week.
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Christmas Day features a potential Super Bowl preview between the Ravens and 49ers. Who wins and why?
Sando: I’ll take the 49ers. I’m betting on their ability to run the ball, which the Rams did quite well early in their game against Baltimore. And then I’m betting on the 49ers’ advantage in offensive weaponry. The Ravens are without tight end Mark Andrews, and their injuries at running back take away big-play explosiveness. This will be a great win for Baltimore if the Ravens are able to pull it off. I took the 49ers and gave the 5.5 points on “The Football GM” podcast this week.
Howe: The 49ers are the more proven commodity in recent years, and they put so much pressure on their opponents. They’ve already blown out the two biggest superpowers in the NFC, and now they’ve got a chance to take down the AFC’s most consistently impressive team. It’d be great to see a close game to measure a couple of unknowns — how Brock Purdy handles a clutch situation and whether the Ravens can close out an opponent after a flurry of blown leads over the past two seasons.
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Kahler: I can’t wait to see this Ravens defense match up against the Niners offense, and I’m tempted to pick the Ravens because I’m reminded of when the Browns, another AFC North team with a top defense, gave the Niners and Purdy issues earlier this season in a 2-point Niners loss (though the Niners were short-handed in the second half when Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel went out with injuries). Baltimore has more to prove in this game.
The Texans host the Browns in a game with playoff implications for both teams. Which coach has done a better job this year: Kevin Stefanski or DeMeco Ryans?
Sando: The first-year coach taking over a perennial loser gets the edge for degree of difficulty. The Texans have already exceeded their preseason Vegas win total (6.5), while the Browns are just about to theirs (9.5). Both coaches deserve praise.
Howe: Nobody expected Ryans to have the Texans in the playoff conversation this late into the season, so I’d go with him. He’s fostered C.J. Stroud into the likely offensive rookie of the year, and it became even more clear last week how much the rest of the team believes in Ryans and one another when it rallied behind Case Keenum. That said, Stefanski deserves loads of credit for getting wins out of four quarterbacks, particularly as their defensive performance has tapered off since their historic start.
Kahler: I’ll round it out for Ryans here. He’s done way more than expected this year, and the work he’s done with Stroud takes precedence over what Stefanski is doing in Cleveland. The Browns deserve credit for adding Joe Flacco to save what could have easily been a lost season, but Ryans has pulled off the more impressive coaching job.
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Are the Jaguars really in danger of missing the playoffs or can they turn it around? Would you extend Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay considering his recent play?
Sando: I see the Jaguars winning two of their final three against Tampa Bay, Carolina and Tennessee. That would get them to 10-7 and in the playoffs. Extending Mayfield would make sense for the Buccaneers, especially if they plan to proceed with the same coaching staff. This is a situation where Mayfield should realize Tampa Bay is the best spot for him, and the sides should be able to reach agreement on a deal that makes sense for everyone. But that could all change if the Buccaneers make big changes.
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Howe: I’m concerned about the Jaguars’ penchant for unforced errors. It’s hard not to think that’ll be the difference in a playoff loss after they’ve been so prominent all season. If Trevor Lawrence is cleared to play, the Jaguars should win their final three games and get into the postseason. Otherwise, they’re tempting fate. The Colts have an easier remaining schedule than the Texans, and they also host the finale against Houston. That makes the Colts a legitimate threat to the Jaguars’ playoff hopes. And yes, I do believe the Bucs should re-sign Mayfield, and I know he’d be eager to find continuity after a chaotic stretch to open his career with four teams and six offensive coordinators in six seasons. But I don’t think an extension would preclude the Bucs from looking for a QB in the draft.
Kahler: I could see the Buccaneers beating the Jaguars this week, but I think the Jaguars have gotten through the hardest part of their schedule that terrorized them with three straight losses — the AFC North gantlet. Jacksonville should win its final two against the Panthers and Titans, which should put it in the playoffs. I think Baker is the answer right now for the Buccaneers, and it makes sense to extend him this offseason. They can always look to draft one later, but Mayfield has played well this season, and it seems like he and offensive coordinator Dave Canales have a good partnership going. It’s so hard to find a quarterback who can win you games, so I think Tampa will stick with Mayfield for now.
A Bengals win over the Steelers could end Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. Would you move on from Mike Tomlin if they miss the postseason?
Sando: The Steelers should keep Tomlin contingent upon substantive improvements to the offensive coaching staff, scheme, design and plan for the quarterback.
Howe: No, but the Steelers need a better system and more structure on offense. If they can find a better coordinator who can keep the wide receivers happy and re-spark Najee Harris, they’d be much closer to contending for a division title than they appear.
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Kahler: No, I don’t think Tomlin is the issue here. Ben Roethlisberger’s comment, “Maybe the tradition of the Pittsburgh Steelers is done,” was a bit self-serving but also carried weight. The last several seasons of Steelers football have been applauding Tomlin for somehow getting mediocre teams into the postseason or celebrating another consecutive winning season that doesn’t result in a playoff win. When did that become the standard?
(Photos of Lamar Jackson, Mike Tomlin and Brock Purdy: Courtney Culbreath, Andy Lyons and Kyle Ross / Getty Images)