The Athletic has live coverage of the 2024 NBA trade deadline. Follow along for updates.
ORLANDO, Fla., and ATLANTA — The main takeaway from the NBA G League Winter Showcase: Be patient. On multiple levels.
At the most immediate ladder rung, while there can and will be some low-level roster churn among teams’ two-way spots in the coming days based on what teams saw at the Showcase, the free-wheeling days of waiving guys to sign 10-days in early January are mostly a thing of the past.
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More importantly, for those who seek higher-impact roster adventure, you may have to wait a bit before this season’s trade stew really gets cooking. We’re still six weeks away from the Feb. 8 trade deadline, and even in the best of times, the NBA is a league full of bad Christmas shoppers frantically searching Amazon for one-day delivery items Dec. 24.
It’s even worse now, and for that we can blame the Play-In Tournament. As good as it has been for the competitiveness of the league as a whole, it has also dampened the early trade market. The prospect of just needing to get to 10th to declare some level of success has left a lot of teams in the mud as far as transactional decisions, offering a tempting morsel for struggling teams that otherwise might lean harder into a rebuild. That’s particularly true this season with no Victor Wembanyama-like prize in the draft to reward a tanking pivot; I wrote some about that last week and have more notes below.
In terms of the dominoes that need to fall before the transactional wheels start turning, they’re mostly in the Eastern Conference, where the Chicago Bulls, Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks all are struggling. It would be helpful if one of them would stop — right now, they’re giving one another hope by failing to pull away from the other two for the 10th position.
Chicago is still figuring out if it’s coming or going, to some extent, and the one player who is most clearly on the market — Zach LaVine — has thus far received lukewarm interest. The sheer size of his contract, at $40 million for a player elite teams would be acquiring as a third option, is an obstacle to putting together matching salary. DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso should also generate interest if the Bulls seriously pursue offers.
The Raptors, meanwhile, have two potentially massive pieces to put on the table in potential free-agent forwards OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, but remain inscrutable. We know they think Scottie Barnes is the best franchise cornerstone they’ve had in ages (Kawhi Leonard was a rental, remember), but we know very little else about their intentions just yet.
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If you want a wild card for who might be the first domino, might I volunteer the Hawks? They concluded the most Hawksy two weeks possible on Saturday while blowing a double-digit lead against the Memphis Grizzlies: Trae Young tied a nearly 60-year-old NBA record with his seventh straight game of at least 30 points and 10 assists … and the Hawks went 3-4 in those seven games.
Atlanta is now 12-17, and while there are other indicators that the Hawks might be better than that record — a nearly neutral point differential, the impending return of breakout forward Jalen Johnson and a road-heavy early schedule — the underlying picture on this club hasn’t changed: It is 27th in defense, plays a joyless brand of your-turn my-turn offense, and its wing rotation isn’t good enough. Maybe the Hawks are more “average” than “bad,” but that still puts them a long way from good.
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Bringing in Quin Snyder in the middle of last season was supposed to help change those characteristics, but the only level in which he’s really succeeded is in getting the team to exchange long 2s for 3s. (Atlanta has jumped from 30th to seventh in 3-point rate.)
With changing the coach already tried and the annual tradition of John Collins trade rumors finally a thing of the past, one wonders if the Hawks will move on to broader strokes. Already, whispers about players and packages have made the rounds; the Hawks have a lot of potential directions they could go with this and don’t seem to have settled on one just yet, but let’s just say nothing is being ruled out right now … including fairly radical alterations to the core.
Atlanta’s essential predicament is that it’s all-in on average. The roster is capped out, and managing the luxury tax is increasingly burdensome with six players making more than the midlevel exception, which is rough for a team that has no interest in ever exceeding the tax line. However, the team also is pot-committed to pursuing wins while owing three straight drafts from 2025 to 2027 to San Antonio (one a swap) for the reckless Dejounte Murray trade.
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Young represents both the best and worst of the Hawks’ plight, virtually guaranteeing an elite offense and entertaining games while also locking them into subpar defense and soaking up a max salary. How to maximize what’s around him remains the vexing question. We’ve heard names like Bogdan Bogdanović, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter and Murray mentioned in various outlets as potential trade pieces, and indeed, doing anything impactful will all but certainly involve one or more of those four. The more tantalizing question for trade watchers: If the Hawks keep spiraling, could Young be on the market too?
Of course, we can’t have sellers unless we have buyers. And this year a few of the buyers essentially told us what they were doing before the season even started.
To wit, the Phoenix Suns didn’t start selling off pieces of their pick-swap rights like they were Gulf Coast time-shares just so they could select a player in the 2028 second round. The Suns are in extreme win-now mode while the clock ticks on what’s left of Kevin Durant’s prime and will keep trying to max out this roster. After trading every draft asset that wasn’t nailed down to acquire Bradley Beal, the Suns acquired four future seconds in two deals before the season just to keep their trade deadline flexibility. Now that the team is struggling at 14-15 and noise is growing louder about the quality of the help (or lack thereof) for Durant and Devin Booker, Phoenix will surely be pushing for upgrades; the Suns can cobble together enough matching salary to land a contract in the teens if needed, and point guard, in particular, seems to be a glaring need.
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Two other Western Conference teams with visions of title contention re-signed players this summer with express items in their contracts that prevent them from blocking a trade, despite losing Bird rights if they’re dealt. While the world champion Denver Nuggets’ issues seem less pressing and Reggie Jackson’s play has exceeded expectations thus far, he remains the obvious matching salary in any Nuggets move. Denver, like Phoenix, also traded future swap rights to get its mitts on a second that could be used in a trade.
More obviously, the Lakers essentially turned D’Angelo Russell into a $21.6 million trade exception with his deal this offseason and just moved him out of the starting lineup. While the Lakers are hard-capped and only have one future first to realistically put in a deal — factors that would seem to work against any LaVine scenario — their own scuffling start at 16-15 is likely to quickly bring them to the table just as soon as we figure out who the sellers are.
Don’t forget about resurgent Houston either. The Rockets might not fit your typical description of an urgent trade-deadline buyer, but they signed Jeff Green and Jock Landale to tradeable non-guaranteed contracts and turned Kevin Porter Jr. into Victor Oladipo instead of cutting him, specifically for the purpose of having salary ballast for another deal. Houston still has first-round picks from Brooklyn to use in a trade, plus a sea of young players.
Finally, of course, there’s the ultimate wild card in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are ahead of schedule at third in the West and have more future draft picks than all of the rest of humanity put together. Thus far, they’re keeping their powder dry and evaluating what they have in-house, but if the Thunder ever decide to pounce, they can win any bidding war handily. It’s something to keep in mind in case any bigger names come up in trade discussions, especially any under 30.
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Scout Geekery: G League Showcase
The nature of the G League Winter Showcase has changed considerably for the league’s rank-and-file scouts. I don’t just mean because of the location either; the four-day soiree in Las Vegas moved to Orlando’s cavernous convention center this year, because it turns out bringing an entire 31-team league to one place isn’t easy. While it was certainly more peaceful and allowed me to catch a Magic game (Orlando’s downtown — underrated!), let’s just say everyone got to bed earlier than the last few years.
What I’m really talking about, though, is the whole process of finding players in the G League. Nine years ago in Memphis, we pulled JaMychal Green out of the Showcase and had him playing rotation minutes on a playoff team shortly thereafter. That is almost inconceivable today, thanks to the three two-way slots, the expansion to 14-player-minimum rosters and the near-ubiquity of non-tax teams carrying a full 15. As result, what would have been the best 120 or so unsigned players a decade ago are now all committed to a team. Yeah, slim pickings.
As a result, it’s become more of an event to scout the two-ways and assignees on other teams for future transactions. Teams got a long look at Indiana lottery pick Jarace Walker, for instance, who played three games for the Mad Ants; 2023 first-rounders Cam Whitmore (Houston), Noah Clowney (Brooklyn), Dariq Whitehead (Brooklyn) and Ben Sheppard (Indiana) also saw extensive run, as did several second-rounders.
Walker was named to the All-Tournament team, along with Westchester guard Brandon Goodwin (the MVP), Delaware’s Darius Bazley, Osceola’s Trevelin Queen and Raptors 905’s Jontay Porter. Queen and Porter are already on two-ways, but Goodwin is a free agent who can be signed by anyone, making him one of the few players of genuine immediate interest to talent evaluators. An undersized guard who is no longer two-way eligible because he has four years of NBA experience, he is likely to be a popular target once 10-day contracts can be signed Jan. 5, especially after showing more passing chops in Orlando than we’d seen in his previous NBA stops.
Other unaffiliated players who made an impression and might show up on rosters on 10-days soon include several familiar faces: Bazley, Rio Grande Valley’s Jarrett Culver, Raptors 905’s Justise Winslow and Rip City’s Terence Davis, for instance. Of the two-way-eligible players, Windy City’s Justin Lewis, Raptors 905’s Kevin Obanor and Mouhamadou Gueye, Mexico City’s Ethan Thompson and Long Island’s Kennedy Chandler are also ones to watch.
Prospects of the Week: The Ignite Quartet
(Note: This section won’t necessarily profile the best prospect of the week. Just the one I’ve been watching.)
The biggest reason scouts came to the Showcase was to see G League Ignite play twice, with four players from the squad regarded as potential first-rounders and at least three others with long-term potential to play in the league.
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The Ignite players showed flashes but were mostly overmatched in two blowout losses, dropping the team to 4-12 on the season. The good news is that the main reason the team has struggled is that the veterans haven’t helped much, especially with projected starting center Eric Mika injured before playing a game. The four main draft prospects (Ron Holland, Matas Buzelis, Izan Almansa and Tyler Smith) have arguably been the team’s four best players.
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Nonetheless, it’s been rough sledding at times. Holland has been mentioned as a potential top pick and has a better G League stat line than other recent lottery picks who came through Ignite, but his weaknesses were on full display in Orlando. He is very reliant on his right hand to get anywhere, forces the ball into traffic for tough shots and has been hugely turnover-prone. That last part, at least, was much better at the Showcase, with 11 assists and only five miscues in the two games, but 7-of-21 shooting across two games won’t help his stock. Holland also had some wow plays on defense, where he moves his feet, anticipates and competes, and still projects as a potential impact player at that end.
Buzelis is the type of player who should fit snugly in the modern NBA as a skilled 6-foot-10 forward who can get off the floor; despite his size, he’s comfortable playing on the perimeter at both ends. His best moments come with quick leaps around the rim, either finishing dunks or blocking shots as a secondary rim protector. However he couldn’t get his 3-ball going this past week (1 of 9, mostly on clean catch-and-shoots) and has had trouble gaining separation off the dribble all season. Scouts want to see more impact at both ends of the floor.
While those two struggled mainly in the scoring categories, for Almansa, it was the other stuff. The 6-10 big man scored 10 points on seven shots in both games but struggled to protect the rim or rebound in traffic. He has shown advanced feel at times as a passer and off-ball mover, but as an undersized five without a 3-point shot, he has to nail the other stuff to thread the needle as a starting-caliber NBA player. Right now, he’s at 55 percent on 2s, which just isn’t that impressive, especially since he’s a horrid foul shooter (11 of 29 on the season).
Finally, there is Smith, who came in with the least hype but statistically has been the best of the bunch. He fits an unusual prototype as a stretch big who isn’t a rim protector, and that may limit the thirst for using a high draft pick on him. On the other hand, he’s 6-10, and the lefty has made his shot a real weapon, repeatedly facing up against size mismatches and launching without a dribble. (Here’s my interview with him in September, when he talked about Chris Bosh and other comps for his playing style.) Smith scored 30 points in 42 minutes in the two weekend games, and he may have enough mobility to survive as a four at the next level. His pick-and-pop game, at least, offers a clear NBA skill that should make him rotation-viable.
Ignite still has three months of basketball left, and scouts will be checking in on this quartet all season. Remember, you don’t get extra credit for having the right answers entering January; the situation at the top of the draft board is still very fluid. Also, everyone has seen these guys before, and I’m not sure anything happened in Orlando that radically altered scouts’ priors. As a result, the biggest takeaway from the week might have been that there wasn’t a big takeaway.
Finally, we would be remiss in not mentioning the other draft-eligible prospect here: Mexico City Capitanes forward Malique Lewis. A 19-year-old from Trinidad and Tobago who was awarded to the Capitanes in a special international draft (the unquestioned highlight of which was the Cleveland Charge drafting a guy from Iceland named Thor), Lewis played in Spain the last two seasons, serving as a lightly used reserve for a miserable Fuenlabrada team as an 18-year-old in 2022-23.
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This season, he’s been getting a consistent 20 minutes a game with Capitanes — and deserves them. The eye test is that he pops with his relatively effortless leaping ability, but his skill level needs refinement to seriously hang at the next level. He’s listed somewhat optimistically at 6-8 but has a legit NBA frame that could allow him to be a full-time four in the NBA. Because he’s young and presumably stashable given his comfort in Spain, and because the wing-athlete-we-can-teach-to-shoot archetype becomes all but irresistible after about the 40th pick in the draft, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him get looks in the second round.
(Top photo of Dejounte Murray and Pascal Siakam / Dan Hamilton / USA Today)
